Action Network senior editor Bryan Mears introduced a funnel defense metric in 2017 to help identify potential value spots in which units can outperform expectations.
Let’s start with a brief explanation and then examine how to leverage that data in Week 4 of the NFL season.
Funnel Defense Explained
Funnel defenses are either successful at defending the run or the pass, but not both. In essence, the top funnel defenses will “funnel” the opposition towards its statistical weakness.
These are not defenses that are overwhelmingly strong or weak overall as a team. Rather, they are exceptionally strong or weak at one defensive aspect. In 2018, the Houston Texans were very strong against the run but poor against the pass. The Denver Broncos? The exact opposite.
Using data to quantify the weekly strength of a defensive funnel is multi-dimensional. We consider the following factors:
- How effective is a defense against the running game and passing game? We employ Football Outsiders’ DVOA to measure this.
- What is the difference between DVOA production defending the run versus the pass? The larger the differential, the higher the probability of a funnel.
- What are the typical run/pass splits for the offense?
There are other factors to consider such as defensive run/pass ratio, but those are less predictive. For this piece, we’ll use the three data points listed above.
Last week, we correctly identified the New England Patriots at the Buffalo Bills as an ideal run funnel game. The Bills running back Frank Gore logged 17 carries for 109 rushing yards, while neither quarterback tallied a passing touchdown and combined for five interceptions.
We are now four full weeks into the 2019 season, meaning that all data is now solely based on this year’s results.
Let’s take a look at the top funnel games for Week 5.
Potential Pass Funnels
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals
Our top pass funnel game for Week 5 features two teams with a combined 0-7-1 record. Both the Cardinals (96.8) and Bengals (84.9) profile as high pass volume opportunities.
Arizona finally catches a break in its brutal opening schedule. Quarterback Kyler Murray should have time to throw against a Cincinnati defense that ranks second-worst in sacks and seventh-worst in quarterback hits. While the Cardinals will likely be without wide receiver Christian Kirk (seventh in targets), they should continue to feature running back David Johnson in the passing game. Johnson had a season-high 11 targets and eight receptions last week against Seattle. The Bengals have allowed a league-high 291 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Cardinals All-Pro wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald ranks 10th among all wide receivers in targets (36) and inside the top 15 in receptions (24). Arizona averages 47.2 pass plays per game, first among all NFL teams.
Cincinnati’s offense has been a pass-first unit under new head coach Zac Taylor but will need to rebound from Monday Night’s pitiful performance against the Steelers. Quarterback Andy Dalton is much better than his 171-yard, 1-INT stat line would indicate. On the season, he still ranks fourth in pass attempts and has thrown for more than 300 yards twice, including 418 passing yards in Week 1.
Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cincinnati Bengals QB Andy Dalton
With Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver John Ross placed on injured reserve (shoulder), look for second-year wideout Auden Tate to see an increased role. Over the past two weeks, Tate has converted 18 targets into 10 receptions and 138 receiving yards.
The Cardinals have also allowed a league-worst 431 receiving yards and six touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Look for Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert to join Tate and top wide receiver Tyler Boyd as big-play options.
Cincinnati’s offensive line has been one of the league’s worst, ranking 31st overall by Football Outsiders. Even with star running back Joe Mixon, it is unlikely the Bengals will find a consistent ground game with the 31st rush DVOA offense.
The 47.5-point over/under is fourth-highest on the Week 5 slate and has the chance to jumpstart two struggling offenses.
Best Fantasy Plays: Murray, Fitzgerald, D. Johnson (Arizona); Dalton, Boyd, Eifert, Tate (Cincinnati)
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans
Our second-highest pass funnel rated game features the Atlanta Falcons (80.5) at the Houston Texans (70.3).
The Falcons rank 21st in pass defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders. Atlanta allowed Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota to throw for three touchdowns at home in Week 4, and have only defended nine passes as a team this season (fourth-worst). The Falcons struggle to put pressure on the quarterback, having the second-fewest sacks (five) among all teams.
Per PlayerProfiler, Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has a 77.2% clean pocket completion percentage, eighth-best among quarterbacks. When Watson has time in the pocket, he is likely to put up points with one of the best receiving cores in the NFL.
Atlanta’s lack of ability to generate pressure on opposing quarterback will be a welcomed relief to a Houston offensive line that has allowed the third-most quarterback sacks and second-most quarterback hits this season. If we incorporate data from the FantasyLabs trends tool, when Watson has played at home in a game with a total of 44 points or higher, he has exceeded his projected total 81.8% of the time. The Falcons’ 21st-ranked pass defense will struggle to contain wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Keke Coutee.
Atlanta has failed to generate a consistent pass rush, and it does not have a cornerback ranked in the top 40 in pass coverage at Pro Football Focus. Atlanta just lost safety Keanu Neal to a season-ending injury, and are in a suboptimal spot against a Houston passing game loaded with playmakers.
For Atlanta, quarterback Matt Ryan has continued to post quality fantasy numbers despite poor efficiency. Ryan ranks first in pass attempts, second in passing yards, and still sits inside the top 10 in fantasy points per game. He has thrown for 300-plus yards in every game this season, although the majority has occurred in comeback mode. The Texans secondary has yielded huge performances to top wideouts this year, including Keenan Allen (13 recs, 183 yds, two TDs) and Michael Thomas (10 recs, 123 yards).
Atlanta has generated passing production in every game this season and will need to score points with the Texans attacking Atlanta’s weak pass defense.
This shootout has the potential to be the highest-scoring overall Week 5 game.
Best Fantasy Plays: Ryan, J. Jones, A. Hooper (Atlanta); Watson, Hopkins, Fuller (Houston)
Potential Run Funnels
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers
The highest projected Week 5 run funnel game projects as the 49ers vs. the Browns. San Francisco carries the highest run funnel rating (81.9), while the Browns (36.8) rank ninth this week.
Cleveland running back Nick Chubb had a monster game in Week 4 despite a seemingly difficult matchup. He totaled 165 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the previously stingy Ravens run defense. Chubb averaged 8.3 yards per carry for the second-biggest rushing total of his career.
San Francisco ranks second overall in DVOA, including second-best against the pass. Cleveland’s pass offense (25th in DVOA) has struggled most of the season, with Odell Beckham’s Week 2 WR2 performance the lone bright spot. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has three QB16 or worse fantasy performances. With wide receiver Jarvis Landry (concussion) possibly unavailable, look for the Browns to lean on Chubb again against an undefeated (3-0) San Francisco team.
Pictured: Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24). Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports.
San Francisco is averaging 175 rushing yards per game, second-best among all teams. The 49ers rank seventh-best overall in rush offense DVOA.
With the return of starting running back Tevin Coleman (ankle) this week, San Francisco has four quality running backs, all of whom have provided efficiency at some point this season. Matt Breida totaled 132 yards against the Bengals in Week 2, Raheem Mostert was the overall RB3 in that same week, and Jeff Wilson ranks fourth in the league with four total touchdowns.
San Francisco’s passing game has been efficient (10th best) but will face a Cleveland defense that is fourth-best against the run. The Browns defense has also produced 14 sacks, fourth-most this season.
Look for both the Browns and 49ers to attempt to dominate time of possession in this strong run funnel Week 5 game.
Best Fantasy Plays: Chubb (Cleveland); Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman (San Francisco)
Other games to consider…
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers: Expect a heavy dose of Ezekiel Elliott for the Cowboys against a Packers team that ranks fifth in pass defense efficiency but only 27th in run defense DVOA. Dallas has the second-highest run funnel rating on the Week 5 slate and profile as run-heavy despite the absence of All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith.
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports.
Pictured: Arizona Cardinals Kyler Murray (1) David Johnson (31), Larry Fitzgerald (11), Christian Kirk (13) and KeeSean Johnson (19).
