Action Network senior editor Bryan Mears introduced a funnel defense metric in 2017, which helps identify potential value spots in which units can outperform expectations.
Let’s start with a brief explanation and then examine how to leverage that data in Week 4 of the NFL season.
Funnel Defense Explained
Funnel defenses are either successful at defending the run or the pass, but not both. In essence, the top funnel defenses will “funnel” the opposition towards its statistical weakness.
These are not defenses that are overwhelmingly strong or weak overall as a team. Rather, they are exceptionally strong or weak at one defensive aspect. In 2018, the Houston Texans were very strong against the run but poor against the pass. The Denver Broncos? The exact opposite.
Using data to quantify the weekly strength of a defensive funnel is multi-dimensional. We consider the following factors:
- How effective is a defense against the running game and passing game? We employ Football Outsiders’ DVOA to measure this.
- What is the difference between DVOA production defending the run versus the pass? The larger the differential, the higher the probability of a funnel.
- What are the typical run/pass splits for the offense?
There are other factors to consider such as defensive run/pass ratio, but those are less predictive. For this piece, we’ll use the three data points listed above.
Last week, we correctly identified the New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers as an ideal pass funnel game. Both teams passed for over 336 yards and five combined touchdowns. New York pass-catchers Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard combined for 13 receptions, 213 yards, and two touchdowns, while Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans was the overall fantasy WR1 with 190 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Let’s take a look at the top funnel games for Week 4.
Potential Pass Funnels
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Our top two pass funnel teams for Week 4 belong to the Monday Night Football game. Both the Bengals (79.1) and Steelers (78.3) profile as high pass volume game scripts.
Cincinnati’s offense has been pass first under new head coach Zac Taylor. Quarterback Andy Dalton ranks second in both passing yards (979) and attempts (129). He has thrown for overall 300 yards twice, including 418 passing yards in Week 1.
The Bengals’ top two wide receivers, John Ross and Tyler Boyd, both rank among the Top 15 in receiving yards. Boyd ranks third-best in both targets (32) and receptions (24), while Ross is third among all qualified receivers with 22.5 yards per catch.
The Steelers return home for quarterback Mason Rudolph’s second start. Pittsburgh should be able to find success in the air, as Rudolph connected on two long touchdowns with wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson last week.
The 44-point over/under is one of the lowest on the Week 4 slate, but is the exact total predicted for the Bengals Week 1 matchup at Seattle when Dalton eclipsed 400 passing yards.
It’s worth considering the history between these two teams as well. In their past five meetings at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh is averaging 278.6 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game. While Cincinnati has struggled to keep pace at Pittsburgh, the Bengals new passing efficiency combined with the Steelers 29th ranked pass defense DVOA illustrates this unlikely pass funnel opportunity.
It is possible the traditional “rock fight” between these two AFC North rivals will become a shootout on Monday Night Football?
Best Fantasy Plays: Dalton, Boyd, Ross (Cincinnati); Smith-Schuster, Johnson (Pittsburgh)
Washington Redskins at New York Giants
The second-highest pass funnel game for Week 4 features the Washington Redskins at the New York Giants. The Giants’ offense exploded in last week’s 32-31 win at Tampa Bay, led by a breakout performance from rookie quarterback Daniel Jones.
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Jones faces a Washington team that has allowed an average of 271 passing yards and three touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. The Redskins’ pass defense has been a sieve, ranking 28th overall in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders.
Meanwhile, Washington’s Case Keenum ranks fourth among all quarterbacks with 933 passing yards, a direct result of overwhelming negative game scripts during an 0-3 start. Rookie wide receiver Terry McLaurin has at least seven targets, five receptions, and a touchdown in each of the team’s first three games. That connection should continue against a Giants pass defense that only ranks ahead of lowly Miami in defensive DVOA.
In addition, both the Giants (25.2 seconds) and Redskins (26.2) rank among the top five teams in PACE. This game has the second-highest over/under at 49.5, just five and a half points behind a Kansas City-Detroit game being played in a dome. The loss of running back Saquon Barkley, combined with Jones’ big game at Tampa Bay, further solidifies a likely pass funnel opportunity.
Look for both teams to lean on their quarterback in a potentially high-scoring NFC East battle at the Meadowlands.
Best Fantasy Plays: Keenum, McLaurin, Paul Richardson (Washington); Jones, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard (New York Giants)
Also consider … Indianapolis Colts vs. Oakland Raiders: With Oakland ranking 16th in run defense DVOA but 30th in pass defense DVOA, the Colts should have opportunities in the air against a pass defense lacking safety Johnathan Abram. Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett continued his strong start to 2019 with 310 yards, two touchdowns a 75.7% completion percentage in a 27-24 home win over Atlanta. Behind a fantastic offensive line, the Colts should feature a pass funnel offense provided speedy wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (quad injury) is available.
Potential Run Funnels
New England at Buffalo
The highest projected Week 4 run funnel game projects as the Bills vs. the Patriots. New England carries the fourth-highest run funnel rating (65.6) while the Bills (54.4) rank seventh this week.
The key to this potential run funnel is based on Tom Brady’s road struggles against Sean McDermott’s pass defense. Since 2017, Brady has not thrown a touchdown pass at Buffalo. He is averaging 295 passing yards, 0.5 interceptions, and just 13.9 fantasy points per game.
In the other 33 games during that span? Brady averages are at his normal 280.6 yards, 2.5 passing touchdowns, and 24.0 fantasy points per game.
However, Brady’s reduced production has been good news for Patriots running back James White.
Last season, Buffalo allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and is currently tied with two receiving touchdowns allowed this season. New England will likely funnel away from Buffalo’s fourth-best pass defense and attack the Bills 21st-ranked run defense.
While the Bills face a more difficult challenge against New England’s top-rated defense (in both run and pass defense DVOA), it is in Buffalo’s best interest to prioritize a run funnel offensive game plan. The Bills have the fifth-best rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 151.3 yards per game.
Against New England, McDermott’s Bills have averaged a robust 127.3 rushing yards at home yet only managed 4.5 points per game. Buffalo should get a boost with the return of third-round rookie Devin Singletary, who ranks first with 11.8 true yards per carry (PlayerProfiler). The Bills will need to produce long, sustained drives to keep the Patriots offense off the field.
The 42.5 over/under is the second-lowest on the Sunday slate of games. Look for both the Patriots and Bills to attempt to dominate time of possession in this strong run funnel Week 4 game.
Best Fantasy Plays: White, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel (New England); Frank Gore, Singletary (Buffalo)
Other games to consider…
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns: The Ravens have the highest run funnel ranking (71.4) in Week 4. Baltimore leads the NFL with 216.78 rushing yards per game, almost 20 yards more than Minnesota. Running back Mark Ingram ranks fifth at the position with 257 rushing yards and Lamar Jackson is first among quarterbacks with 57.3 rushing yards per game. The Browns defense has been much less efficient against the run (15th in DVOA) than the pass (seventh), and Baltimore should again skew run-heavy behind a strong offensive line.
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Detroit’s run-heavy offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will certainly look to keep the Chiefs’ explosive offense off the field with a ball-control game plan. Kansas City has the worst run defense DVOA in the league, 3.6% less efficient than even Miami. Despite facing consecutive stiff running defenses in the Chargers and Eagles, the Lions rank ninth with 29.3 rushing attempts per game. The Lions efficiency should match their volume against Kansas City, making running back Kerryon Johnson the recipient of a heavy run funnel game plan.
