The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers stand out in their own pricing tier on FanDuel:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,900, NYM vs. MIA
- Shane Bieber (R) $11,500, CLE @ CWS
The Mets’ season is effectively over, but deGrom is still pitching for something. He has a chance to win back-to-back National League Cy Young awards, which would put him on an exclusive list. Only Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, and Sandy Koufax have previously achieved that feat, which is pretty impressive company.
deGrom hasn’t been as dominant as he was during his 2018 campaign, but he has still been outstanding. He’s pitched to a 2.51 ERA and 2.72 FIP while increasing his K/9 to a career-best 11.33. His 6.6 Wins Above Replacement rank first in the NL, and he’ll have a chance to increase his lead over Scherzer after today’s start.
He’s in a phenomenal spot to end his season vs. the Miami Marlins. They’ve been dreadful against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 29th in wRC+ and eighth in strikeout rate. Overall, right-handers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.17 when facing the Marlins this season (per the Trends tool).
deGrom’s Vegas data in this matchup is among the best we’ve seen all season. He leads all pitchers with a 2.4 opponent implied team total, joining Justin Verlander as the only pitchers with an opponent implied team total below 2.5 in 2019. deGrom also leads all pitchers with -430 moneyline odds.
His elite Vegas data makes sense when you combine his matchup with his recent Statcast data. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 169 feet and hard hit rate of 21%, both of which represent massive decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Finally, deGrom also possesses more strikeout upside than any other pitcher on the slate. His K Prediction of 9.5 is the top mark by a considerable margin.Basically, we have one of the best pitchers in baseball at the top of his game taking on an offense that has struggled all season. Don’t overthink this one.
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Shane Bieber
Bieber is an interesting pivot off deGrom for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He should check in with much lower ownership, but his matchup vs. the White Sox is excellent. Their offense has struggled vs. right-handers over the second-half of the season, ranking just 25th in wRC+. Bieber’s Vegas marks aren’t as good as DeGrom’s, but they’re still impressive: His 3.4 opponent implied team total and -298 moneyline odds both rank third on the slate.
Where Bieber really stands out is with his strikeout upside. He’s pitched to a K/9 of 10.94 over the past 12 months, and the White Sox’ projected lineup has struggled to a 29.5% strikeout rate over the same time frame. They also own the second-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers since the All-Star break. With that in mind, Bieber’s K Prediction of 7.6 is definitely on the conservative side.
Values
Frankie Montas is a real wild card on today’s slate. He’s missed the past 80 game due to a PED suspension, so it’s unclear just how deep he’ll be able to pitch vs. the Los Angeles Angels. Still, it’s not like he’s coming off an injury, and he’s been pitching simulated games while away from the team. Montas is also ineligible for the A’s postseason roster, so they don’t have to worry about burning him out.
He was undoubtedly the A’s best pitcher during the first half of the season. He pitched to a 2.70 ERA and 2.91 FIP while compiling a 9-2 record. The A’s own just a half game lead over the Rays and a full game lead over the Indians in the wild card race, so they’ll need their ace to get them into the playoffs even if he can’t help them then.
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Frankie Montas (47).
Montas could ask for a much better matchup in his first start back. The Angels’ projected lineup is not very intimidating with Mike Trout on the IL, boasting a .266 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’re currently implied for 3.7 runs, and Montas is also a solid -199 favorite.
He’s underpriced at $9,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Jon Lester stands out if you’re looking to spend way down at pitcher. He’s taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have been absolutely dreadful against southpaws over the second half of the season. They own a wRC+ of just 75 over that time frame, which ranks dead-last by a considerable margin.
Lester also enters this contest in solid recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 194 feet and hard hit rate of 28%, both of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Fastballs
Zack Greinke: He has excellent Vegas data vs. the Seattle Mariners, ranking second in opponent implied team total (3.1 runs) and moneyline odds (-336). That said, he doesn’t possess a ton of strikeout upside, and the Astros have limited him to six innings or fewer in each of his past five starts.
Charlie Morton: He’s in a tough spot vs. the Yankees, but he provides an excellent combination of recent Statcast data and strikeout ability. He’s also one of the best pure values on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Dinelson Lamet: He’s one of the better strikeout pitchers in the league, and you can roster him at a slight discount compared to the elite pitching options. Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup vs. the Dodgers, who have been one of the best teams in baseball against right-handers this season.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- 1. Billy McKinney (L)
- 2. Cavan Biggio (L)
- 3. Randal Grichuk (R)
- 5. Justin Smoak (S)
- 6. Reese McGuire (L)
Total Salary: $20,500
The Blue Jays are currently implied for 5.8 runs, which ranks tied for fourth on the main slate. Their top stack is also extremely reasonable at $20,500 on DraftKings resulting in a Team Value Rating of 87. They’re a perfect team to pair with an expensive starter like deGrom or Bieber.
They’re taking on Orioles right-hander Gabriel Ynoa, who has been one of the best pitchers to target in fantasy. He’s pitched to a 5.65 ERA and 6.11 FIP, and he’s also been well below average in both K/9 (5.23) and HR/9 (2.28).
McKinney stands out as an amazing value at just $3,600 as the projected leadoff hitter. Historically, leadoff batters with comparable salaries and implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.41 on DraftKings. McKinney can also do a little damage with his bat — he’s posted a .211 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months — and his Statcast data from the past 15 days is outstanding. He’s a solid value option even if you aren’t stacking the Jays.
The Jays also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so let’s focus on the Braves instead:
- 1. Dansby Swanson (R)
- 2. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 4. Nick Markakis (L)
- 5. Adam Duvall (R)
Total Salary: $11,500
The Braves are basically locked into their playoff position. They have virtually no chance of catching the Dodgers for the top spot in the NL, but they’ve already guaranteed a better record than whoever wins the NL Central. With that in mind, look for them to get some rest for guys like Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, and Josh Donaldson down the stretch.
That should create some value with the rest of their lineup. Swanson in particular will get more opportunities as the projected leadoff batter, which makes him an appealing target at $2,700.
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson (right), center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13).
The Braves are taking on Royals left-hander Mike Montgomery, who has struggled through 86.1 innings with the Royals and Cubs this season. He’s pitched to a 5.00 ERA and 5.64 FIP while allowing an average of 1.88 HRs per nine innings.
Duvall stands out in particular in this matchup vs. the southpaw. He’s crushed left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .439 wOBA and .389 ISO. His 11 Pro Trends are also tied for the most among hitters on FanDuel, where his $2,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Other Batters
The Indians are taking on White Sox left-hander Ross Detwiler, which makes Jordan Luplow an appealing target. He’s become one of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws, and he’s posted a .469 wOBA and .397 ISO against left-handers over the past 12 months. The Indians are currently implied for 6.2 runs, which makes Luplow one of the strongest options of the day on FanDuel at $2,700.
The Red Sox lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.6 runs, and Sam Travis is currently expected to occupy the No. 5 spot in the lineup. That makes him a viable option at just $3,000 on DraftKings. He hasn’t played at ton recently, but he has made excellent contact over his past three starts. The result is a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +60 feet and hard hit differential of +34 percentage points.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: New York Mets SP Jacob deGrom (48)
Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
