Happy de-gen day! Let’s get to it.
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors (-7)
Implied Totals: 92.5 – 99.5, O/U: 192
Since DeMarre Carroll’s minutes limit was stripped two games ago, Patrick Patterson has averaged only 26.3 minutes (in comparison to his average of 29.4 in Games 1 and 2). Fortunately, there are three solid options for both formats at power forward — Paul Millsap, Jonas Jerebko, Myles Turner — leaving Patterson as the odd man out. With a salary-adjusted expectation of only 17.57 points at DraftKings, Carroll is still a cash option there (but not a tournament option due to his limited upside). Turner, on the other hand, should be considered only in tournaments, as we’ve now seen his ceiling (34 DraftKings points in Game 3) and floor (13 points in Game 2) throughout this series.
Even with a salary $3,400 greater than the next player at his position, Paul George is the top option at small forward. He has shot only 34.2 percent over his last two games, but his projected floor tonight is a whopping 12.5 points higher than anyone else at his positon. Monta Ellis arguably represents equivalent value at the shooting guard position, due to the makeup of this slate and limited options at the position.
DeMar DeRozan has a 97 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings. His 31 points in Game 3 offer a small glimpse at his absolute ceiling, as he still has salary-adjusted expectations of 29.99 points. He’s viable in tournaments due to value, but he simply can’t be trusted in cash. Kyle Lowry, on the other hand, tends to be the opposite: Even in scoring only 23.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, there’s essentially no way his minutes (and overall usage) allow him to fall below that floor. In other words, he can fail to meet expectations without destroying your team.
I have no idea why Ian Mahinmi was given 33.2 minutes out of nowhere, but his 97 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings is clearly all too cheap as long as he suits up. Even though both Jonas Valanciunas and Al Horford (more on him later) are much stronger options at their respective positions, we’ve now seen three games in which Valanciunas ran into foul trouble early. That alone makes tonight a terrific spot for Mahinmi in tournaments, as most DFS players are expected to continue rostering Toronto’s star center.
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (-7)
Implied Totals: 96.3 – 103.3, O/U: 199.5
It should come as no shock that, pathetically, this game has the highest implied total of the night. Paul Millsap — arguably the strongest tournament play on Atlanta — will obviously have high ownership given his most recent performance of 79.25 DraftKings points. Still, there’s no better option at his position. With a 95 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, Jonas Jerebko is clearly a more valuable option, but you must roster two players at the position on FanDuel.
Kelly Olynyk logged only 3.5 minutes in his return Sunday night, but even that minuscule amount cuts into Boston’s already-sporadic frontcourt rotation. Only the backcourt options of Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Evan Turner can be trusted at this time. Thomas is arguably the strongest option among point guards in cash games, while Smart and Turner can be stacked with ease at FanDuel (where both are implied to score 2.99 and 5.92 fewer points). As for Al Horford, he’s viable in both cash and tournaments despite his performance of 28.25 DraftKings points in Game 4. He will be especially viable in tournaments due to the fact that many people will prefer to roster Valanciunas, who is $1,100 cheaper. Kent Bazemore is simply the best of a bunch behind George at their position. His projected floor of 17.7 points, for instance, is second-highest among small forwards.
Jeff Teague has averaged 32.2 minutes in this series, but Dennis Schroder is playing just enough behind him to continue justifying his own 99 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings in tournaments. He’s a clear non-option at FanDuel (due to his incredulous Salary Change) whereas Teague’s projected floor of 20 points (lower than the floors of Lowry and Thomas) is just fine for tournaments.
Good luck!
