The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is light on stud pitchers. Only two possess a salary above $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Shane Bieber (R) $10,600, CLE @ TB
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,400, PHI vs. NYM
Neither pitcher stands out as a slam dunk, but both are significantly better values on FanDuel. Each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 85%.
Let’s start with Bieber. He’s put together a strong season for the Indians, pitching to a 3.23 ERA and 11.04 K/9. He’s been even better since the All-Star break, dropping his ERA to 2.86.
Unfortunately, he’s in a mediocre spot today vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Their projected lineup has posted a .331 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, and they’re currently implied for 3.8 runs. That’s still tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate, but it’s higher than normal for a stud pitcher like Bieber. He’s also just a -133 favorite, and pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -0.21 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Nola is even tougher to trust today vs. the New York Mets. The Mets have struggled recently, losing six straight games, but their projected lineup has still posted a .338 wOBA and 22.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’re currently implied for 4.1 runs, which is merely the eighth-lowest total on the slate.
Nola also enters this contest in terrible Statcast form. He’s been hit extremely hard over his past two starts, allowing opposing batters to post an average distance of 222 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 55%. All three represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Both Bieber and Nola should see reduced ownership on today’s slate – which makes them interesting targets for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) – but they’re way too risky for cash games.
Values
The best Vegas data on the slate belongs to Anibal Sanchez and Kyle Gibson. Neither pitcher has been particularly good this season, but both benefit from an elite matchup.
Sanchez is taking on the Miami Marlins, who rank just 29th in wRC+ against right-handers this season. Their projected lineup has also been extremely strikeout prone against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a 30.0% strikeout rate. Sanchez’s 3.9 opponent implied team total is tied for the fifth-lowest mark on the slate, while his -246 moneyline odds rank second.
Sanchez combines his excellent Vegas data with strong Statcast results from his past two starts. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 193 feet, which represents a decrease of -13 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.88 on FanDuel.
Sanchez also represents one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Gibson might have an even better matchup vs. the Detroit Tigers. They rank dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and right-handers have absolutely dominated them from a fantasy perspective. They’ve averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.52 when facing the Tigers this season, which has made them the best team in fantasy to target.
Gibson owns an opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs in the matchup, which ranks second on today’s slate. He’s also the largest favorite of the day given his -270 moneyline odds.
Gibson is pitching on the road in Detroit, but that could actually work in his favor. His ERA drops by more than half a run which pitching on the road this season, and he also averages nearly two additional strikeouts per nine innings.
Max Fried stands out on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. Fried has also pitched well this season, posting a 9.18 K/9 and 3.46 xFIP through 136.1 innings.
He’s another pitcher with a wonderful matchup today. He’s taking on the Chicago White Sox, who rank just 20th in wRC+ against left-handers since the All-Star break. Their projected lineup has been even worse against southpaws over the past 12 months, posting a .282 wOBA and 32.6% strikeout rate. Fried owns an opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs and moneyline odds of -203, and his K Prediction of 6.4 ranks sixth on the slate.
Fastballs
Trevor Bauer: He’s struggled as a member of the Reds, and his current matchup vs. the St. Louis Cardinals carries a lot of rainout risk. That said, he has nice upside if you’re willing to assume some risk. His K Prediction of 7.0 ranks first on the slate, and his salary has decreased by -$1,600 over the past month on FanDuel.
Madison Bumgarner: He owns the lowest opponent implied team total of the day at 3.6 runs vs. the San Diego Padres. He also benefits from getting to pitch at home in Oracle Park, where he’s posted a 2.95 ERA this season.
Dinelson Lamet: His $8,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he possesses big strikeout upside vs. the Giants. Their projected lineup has posted a 29.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Lamet has posted a K/9 of 11.74 over the same time frame.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Max Kepler (L)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 5. Miguel Sano (R)
- 6. Luis Arraez (L)
- 8. Jason Castro (L)
Total Salary: $22,700
It’s a very easy day to pay down at pitcher, which could result in the Twins being a bit overlooked. The Rockies lead the slate with a massive implied team total of 7.9 runs, so they should garner the majority of attention for GPPs. That said, the Twins implied team total of 6.4 runs ranks third on the slate, and their Team Value Rating of 83 ranks second on DraftKings.
They have massive upside today given their matchup vs. Edwin Jackson. He’s pitched to an 8.70 ERA and 7.58 FIP this season, and the Twins scored six runs in five innings vs. Jackson in their last meeting. Jackson has also struggled to keep the ball in the stadium this season, allowing an average of 3.08 HRs per nine innings, and the Twins lead the league in HRs per game this season. They have pop up and down their lineup:
The @Twins have tied an @MLB record with 9 players with at least 15 home runs in a season. @marwinGF9 just hit #15
Kepler- 35
Cruz- 33
Rosario- 27
Sano- 26
Garver- 23
Cron- 21
Schoop- 19
Polanco- 19
Gonzalez- 15
—————-
Castro- 12#MNTwins— Dustin Morse (@morsecode) August 28, 2019
With that in mind, stacking them in the above 1-2-5-6-8 manner makes sense. It should increase your chances in having a contrarian lineup, and you aren’t sacrificing a ton of upside by targeting the batters at the bottom of the order.
Castro in particular stands out as a nice value at $3,700. He’s crushed right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .354 wOBA and .253 ISO, and he’s posted solid Statcast marks over the past 15 days.
Stacking Coors is definitely in play today, and the Rockies own the top Coors Field stack on FanDuel:
- 1. Trevor Story (R)
- 2. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 5. Ryan McMahon (L)
Total Salary: $16,900
The Rockies are in an excellent spot today vs. Pirates right-hander Dario Agrazal. His 4.41 ERA doesn’t jump off the page, but his 6.38 xFIP is nearly two full runs higher than his traditional ERA. He’s also posted a K/9 of just 4.59 at the MLB level, which is nearly impossible in today’s MLB. Only two qualified starters have posted a K/9 below 6.03 this season.
Blackmon is expected to bat second on the order, which is a bit of a change for him. He’s spent most of the past few years occupying the leadoff spot for the Rockies, but the No. 2 spot could potentially lead to a few additional RBI opportunities. He’s also hit the ball well over the past 15 days, posting an average distance of 238 feet. That represents an increase of +15 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
The only concern with the Rockies is their potential ownership. Each of the stacked batters is projected for double-digit ownership, so you’ll need to keep that in mind with the rest of your roster selections.
Other Batters
The Red Sox implied team total of 5.5 runs doesn’t stand out on today’s slate, but Mookie Betts still deserves to be treated as one of the best plays on the slate. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Angels left-hander Jose Suarez, who has allowed right-handed batters to post a .429 wOBA and 2.97 HR/9 this season. He’s also smoked the ball over his past 10 games, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +22 feet and hard hit differential of +18 percentage points.
If you’re looking for some cheaper Coors Field exposure, consider Colin Moran. He’s projected to bat fifth for the Pirates at $4,600 on DraftKings, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Rockies right-hander Antonio Senzatela. He also enters this contest in solid recent form, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +12 feet.
Dexter Fowler is a nice value today on DraftKings, which is important if you’re trying to load up on expensive bats. He’s priced at just $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%, and he’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Twins 3B Miguel Sano (22)
Photo credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
