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On Friday, we are blessed with a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are five pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Justin Verlander (R), $12,200, HOU @ OAK
- Charlie Morton (R), $11,300, TB vs. DET
- Luis Castillo (R), $11,100, CIN vs. STL
- Lucas Giolito (R), $10,600, CWS @ LAA
- Patrick Corbin (L), $10,200, WSH vs. MIL
Verlander is the top-priced pitcher by $900 for Friday’s slate. He’s coming off a game where he allowed four earned runs to the Orioles, but he still struck out 11 batters. His 34.5% strikeout rate this year always gives him a high floor and ceiling.
That said, Verlander is sporting a K Prediction of just 7.06 and the A’s are implied for 3.9 runs, which is on the higher side for a pitcher who is this expensive. He’s tournament viable because of what he brings to the table each time he’s on the mound, but he’s not the best value for cash games with his -3.80 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Morton would be my primary target for cash games for Friday’s slate of games. He’s pitched to a 3.25 xFIP with a 30.5% strikeout rate this season, and he’s just in a better spot compared to all the other aces tonight.
Morton will square off against the Tigers: They have a slate-low 2.8 implied run total and rank 28th or worse in team ISO, wOBA and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this year. Overall, he leads the slate with his 8.33 K Prediction, and Morton leads our median projections among starting pitchers.
Since Castillo is priced just $200 cheaper than Morton, I don’t see a reason to use Castillo except for as a tournament pivot with Morton likely soaking up most of the ownership.
Castillo owns an excellent 29.5% strikeout rate, but his 10.5% walk-rate is what can get him into trouble. Although, the matchup isn’t too daunting as the Cardinals projected lineup has a weak .270 wOBA against righties over the last year, and they rank 25th in wRC+ against them this season. He’s a solid tournament play on both sites, especially on DraftKings where he’s a slightly better value with his 69% Bargain Rating.
Giolito has been dialed in over his last four starts, striking out eight or more hitters and allowing three or fewer earned runs in all four starts. However, I have hesitancy about using him against the Angels. The Angels haven’t been friendly to top-priced pitchers this season.
Per our Trends tool, pitchers who cost at least $10,000 on FanDuel have averaged a -2.44 Projected Plus/Minus with a 42.9% Consistency Rating. The White Sox are also slight underdogs (+104 moneyline odds), and the Angels are implied for 4.4 runs.
I don’t have much interest in Corbin for cash games either with the spot that Morton is in, and the Brewers have a 4.1 implied run total. However, he still has some tournament appeal since the Brewers projected lineup has a 31% strikeout rate against lefties over the last 12 months, which is the second-highest mark on the main slate.
Values
Jon Gray has some appeal on FanDuel with his 87% Bargain Rating. There is obviously risk in this play since this game is at Coors Field, but the matchup doesn’t get much better than this. The Marlins projected lineup has a slate-high 31.6% strikeout rate, along with the fifth-worst wOBA.
Patrick Sandoval could suffice as an SP2 on DraftKings against a projected White Sox lineup that owns a high 27.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the last 12 months. He boasts an excellent 27.9% strikeout rate this year, and he hasn’t been as bad as his 5.59 ERA suggests since his xFIP (3.84) is nearly two runs lower.
Fastballs
Noah Syndergaard: He’ll square off against a Royals team that is tied with the second-lowest implied run total (3.9), and the Mets are sizeable -171 moneyline favorites. The Royals have a middling 25.9% strikeout rate against righties over the last year, but they do rank just 24th in wRC+ against them this season.
Rick Porcello: Rostering Porcello never feels good, but he would allow you to load up on expensive bats in tournaments. It’s at least a good matchup against a projected Orioles lineup with a 27.2% strikeout rate against righties over the last 12 months, and they rank 23rd in wRC+.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Rafael Devers (L)
- 3. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 5. Andrew Benintendi (L)
Total salary: $20,800
The Red Sox’s 7.3 implied run total trails only the Rockies (7.7). That mark is impressive considering the Red Sox aren’t at Coors Field. They’re set to square off against Aaron Brooks, who has allowed 2.20 home runs per nine innings over the last 12 months. He’s also entering this game with abysmal Statcast data, allowing opposing hitters to average a 252-foot average distance with a 94-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate.
His poor Statcast data should bode well for Betts, who possesses a 237-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity over the last two weeks. He’s throttled right-handed pitching over the last year, sporting a 394 wOBA and .233 ISO.
Devers doesn’t have quite the batted-ball data that Betts has, but he’ll get a lefty-righty matchup, which is good news for him since he’s smashed them over the last year, hitting them to the tune of a .422 wOBA and .275 ISO.
This main drawback of this stack is how expensive it is on DraftKings. To make this stack work, you’ll need to roster two cheaper pitchers and forgo some of the aces that are on the mound tonight.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the New York Mets.
- 1. Amed Rosario (R)
- 2. J.D. Davis (R)
- 3. Peter Alonso (R)
- 4. Wilson Ramos (R)
Total salary: $12,300
The Mets’ 5.5 implied run total is the fourth-highest total on the slate, which has resulted in a solid Team Value Rating of 94 in our Vegas Dashboard, trailing only the Rockies and Red Sox. It’s a good spot for this stack against Mike Montgomery who has slate-worst marks in both WHIP (1.65) and HR/9 (2.81).
Davis will be on the negative side of his batting splits for this matchup, but he still owns a .384 wOBA and .211 ISO against lefties over the last 12 months. He boasts the best Statcast data in this stack, possessing a 246-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate, all of which exceed his 12-month averages. Davis’ average distance and exit velocity exceed his 12-month averages by a whopping +39 feet and +13 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Alonso absolutely throttled lefties, hitting them to the tune of a .392 wOBA and .358 ISO. Since this stack is on the cheaper side, it allows plenty of roster flexibility, whether you want to pay up at pitching or get in some more expensive bats.
Other Batters
Trevor Story projects as the best hitter in our median projections tonight. He’ll be at Coors Field where the Rockies have a 7.7 implied run total, and Story has crushed righties, boasting a .384 wOBA and .289 ISO against them over the last year. He’ll enter this game with an absurd 99-mph exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate.
Daniel Murphy is projected to hit cleanup for the Rockies, and he could be excellent cheap exposure to their high implied run total. Murphy owns a top-five Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel on Friday night.
Miguel Sano could be an option at third base in tournaments if you’re looking to move away from Nolan Arenado, or Devers. The Twins have a respectable 5.0 implied run total, and Sano has demolished lefties, boasting a .410 wOBA and .374 ISO. He also has ridiculous batted-ball data with his 262-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Charlie Morton
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
