The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
FanDuel and DraftKings offer eight-game main slates at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, one pitcher costs $10,000 or more:
- Zack Greinke (R), $10,800, HOU @CWS
Monday is a rather gross slate for pitchers, which makes Greinke’s matchup against the White Sox stand out even more. At the time of writing, the White Sox are the only team with an implied run total under 4.0 runs, and the Astros are the only team with moneyline odds better than -150.
The projected White Sox lineup has a middling 26.5% strikeout rate against righties over the last 12 months, but it has struggled to generate runs this season, ranking 28th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+).
While Greinke is a good option, there are three teams implied for at least 7.0 runs, so paying down at pitcher could make a lot of sense on Monday. However, Greinke probably makes the most sense on DraftKings where you need two starting pitchers.
Values
Joey Lucchesi is the best value option on FanDuel to roster some expensive bats. There is a massive price discrepancy between the two sites as Lucchesi costs $10,000 on DraftKings, but $7,600 on FanDuel — resulting in a 99% Bargain Rating on that particular site.
He draws a matchup against a strikeout-prone Rays team. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup has an absurdly high 34.6% strikeout rate against lefties over the last 12 months.
Cheaper SP2 options are hard to come by on DraftKings, but Jose Suarez has some appeal against the Pirates. There isn’t much strikeout upside in this matchup, but the Angels are the second-largest favorites on slate, and the Pirates rank dead last in wRC+ against lefties this season.
If you want to totally punt SP2 on DraftKings, you could just roll out Austin Pruitt, who is the stone minimum at $4,000.
Fastballs
Anthony DeSclafani: He could be worth a look in tournaments with his 24.7% strikeout rate this season. The matchup doesn’t stand out on paper since the Nationals’ projected lineup has a 23.4% strikeout rate and rank 16th in wRC+, but options are limited on Monday.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.
- 1. Bo Bichette (R)
- 2. Cavan Biggio (L)
- 3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
- 5. Justin Smoak (S)
Total salary: $16,100
Monday is shaping up to be a high-scoring slate since the Blue Jays’ 5.7 implied run total is the fourth-highest mark on the night. It’s a good matchup against Ariel Jurado, who has pitched to a 4.82 xFIP with a brutal 9.9% K-BB% this year.
This whole stack has demolished right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months:
- Bichette: .329 wOBA, .224 ISO
- Biggio: .455 wOBA, .439 ISO
- Guerrero Jr.: .378 wOBA, .211 ISO
- Smoak: .339 wOBA, .239 ISO
The main benefit of this stack is that it isn’t too expensive, so it allows for some flexibility in how you roster the rest of your bats, along with potentially getting up to the more expensive pitching options.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- 1. Jarrod Dyson (L)
- 2. Ketel Marte (S)
- 3. Eduardo Escobar (S)
- 4. David Peralta (L)
Total salary: $15,600
With Coors Field on tap tonight, there was bound to be at least one team from this game that popped in our lineup builder. That honor belongs to the Diamondbacks and their 7.0 implied run total. Peter Lambert will start on the mound for the Rockies. He’s struggled over his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs and 13 hits across nine innings pitched.
The matchup against a righty will put Peralta on the positive side of his batting splits. He’s hit them to the tune of a .378 wOBA and .224 ISO over the last 12 months.
Escobar will be on the negative side of his batting splits, but he’s in excellent batted-ball form over the last two weeks, averaging a 271-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate. All of which exceed his 12-month averages.
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eduardo Escobar
It would be wise to get some exposure to Coors considering players featured on teams with comparable implied run totals at Coors Field have averaged a robust +3.38 FanDuel Plus/Minus, per our Trends tool.
Other Batters
Trevor Story has been on fire over his last 10 games, averaging a +5.36 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 80% Consistency Rating. He’ll be involved in a righty-righty matchup, but he still possesses a .376 wOBA and .285 ISO against righties over the last year. He’s also generating tons of hard contact over the last two weeks, boasting a 98-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate.
Aaron Judge has an excellent 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’s my preferred player as a way to gain exposure to the Yankees’ 7.5 implied run total. It’s a good spot for Judge as he owns a .446 wOBA and .267 ISO against lefties over the last 12 months.
Eugenio Suarez has some appeal on DraftKings with his 94% Bargain Rating. It’s a righty-righty matchup, but he’s still throttled righties, boasting a .346 wOBA and .243 ISO against them. Suarez is in good form with his 232-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity. His 232-foot average distance exceeds his 12-month average by 11 feet.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: David Peralta and Eduardo Escobar
Photo credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
