The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
FanDuel and DraftKings will offer a nine-game slate on Sunday starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or higher:
- Justin Verlander (R), $12,000, HOU vs. SEA
- Shane Bieber (R), $11,200, CLE vs. LAA
- Noah Syndergaard (R), $10,800, NYM @ PIT
Verlander owns top honors as the most expensive pitcher on Sunday. It’s warranted as he’s been crushing of late, striking out 11 or more batters in each of his last three starts. While the Mariners’ projected lineup has hit right-handed pitchers fairly well over the last year (.334 wOBA), their 28.6% strikeout rate is the fifth-highest mark in baseball.
They also rank fifth in ISO and ninth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), but Verlander’s 33.7% strikeout rate this year gives him a high ceiling and floor regardless of the matchup. He’s a strong option in all formats.
Bieber has been incredibly consistent over the last month, averaging a +6.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 73% Consistency Rating. But overall, he’s been great this entire season, pitching to a 3.20 xFIP with a 31.1% strikeout rate.
That said, the matchup against the Angels isn’t one that’s particularly exploitable. Their projected lineup has a low 22.2% strikeout rate, along with a .334 wOBA, and they rank sixth in wRC+ against righties this season. He also has concerning Statcast data over his last two starts, allowing opposing hitters to average a 266-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 54% hard-hit rate.
The Angels are implied for just 3.8 runs, but the potential lack of strikeouts is the most concerning aspect of this matchup, especially since he costs a pretty penny. Bieber’s -6.94 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel makes him one of the worst values on the board.
Syndergaard also draws a matchup against a low-strikeout team: The Pirates’ projected lineup has only struck out 21.7% of the time. This is concerning for Syndergaard since his 24.6% strikeout rate this season ranks just 44th among starters with at least 50 innings pitched.
I’d rather just pay for Verlander or go cheaper than this tier for pitching on Sunday, considering the less-than-stellar matchups for Bieber and Syndergaard. Overall, Syndergaard’s -4.04 Projected Plus/Minus is the third-worst mark on the slate.
Values
Drew Smyly is a better value on DraftKings with his 83% Bargain Rating, but he’s still viable as a punt option on FanDuel. He’s been rather hit or miss (mostly miss) this season, but he’ll have a decent matchup against a projected White Sox lineup that has a 30.2% strikeout rate and weak .283 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the last year.
Smyly obviously carries some risk, and this play won’t feel great, but he does enter it in decent form, holding opposing hitters to a 175-foot average distance, 90-mph exit velocity and 30% hard-hit rate over his last two starts.
Yonny Chirinos has been solid from a fantasy standpoint this year, averaging a +6.69 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 74% Consistency Rating, along with a +6.61 Plus/Minus with an 82% Consistency Rating over the past month.
Next up is a Marlins team that ranks 29th or worse in wRC+, ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season. At the time of writing, there are two games off the board (Cubs vs. Brewers, Astros vs. Mariners), which means the Marlins’ 3.5 implied run total is currently the lowest run total on the slate. Chirinos carries a top-seven Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Fastballs
Caleb Smith: I’d keep Smith isolated to tournaments since the Marlins are sporting +159 moneyline odds and the Rays are implied for 4.6 runs. However, he could be regaining his form with seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three starts. Smith boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate this season.
Yu Darvish: He’ll take on a projected Brewers lineup that has a slate-high 32.6% strikeout rate, resulting in a K Prediction (7.7) that trails only Verlander. Darvish owns a top-two Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.
- 1. Bo Bichette (R)
- 2. Cavan Biggio (L)
- 4. Vladamir Guerrero Jr. (R)
- 5. Justin Smoak (S)
Total salary: $17,900
It’s not surprising to see the Jays check in as the top stack on DraftKings because their 6.1 implied runs trail only the Twins on the main slate. Additionally, their Team Value Rating of 83 in our Vegas Dashboard also only trails the Twins.
The matchup against a righty will put almost this entire stack on the positive side of their batting splits. Biggio has the most drastic splits in this bunch, sporting a .340 wOBA and .234 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the last year. He’s also in great batted-ball form, boasting a 236-foot average distance, 94 mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks.
Vlad Jr. is also in a similar boat, hitting righties to the tune of a .375 wOBA and .211 ISO. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging a +7.21 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 60% Consistency Rating, so it’s not surprising to see his excellent Statcast numbers. He’s flaunting a 239-foot average distance, 94 mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate, all of which exceed his 12-month averages.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins.
- 1. Max Kepler (L)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 5. Miguel Sano (R)
Total salary: $16,000
The Twins are in a favorable spot against Brad Keller. He’s been awful this season, pitching to a 4.88 xFIP with an abysmal 6.9% K-BB%. Overall, the Twins own a slate-high 6.3 implied run total and Team Value Rating of 91 on FanDuel.
Kepler has been on fire over his last 10 starts, averaging a +6.09 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50% Consistency Rating. As a result, he’s got some excellent recent Statcast data, boasting a 241-foot average distance, 94 mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate. He’ll also be on the positive side of his splits, possessing a .368 wOBA and .283 ISO against righties over the last year.
In fact, Kepler isn’t the only Twins hitter who has excellent Statcast data over the last two weeks. All four of these hitters have recent batted-ball data that exceeds their 12-month averages. Most notable is Cruz, who has an absurd 276-foot average distance, 98 mph exit velocity and 62% hard-hit rate. Cruz’s 276-foot average distance represents a +46-foot differential compared to his year-long average.
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nelson Cruz
Other Batters
If you need some salary relief, Franmil Reyes has a 77% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, along with the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus among outfielders. He’s hit righties well over the last 12 months, evidenced by his .353 wOBA and .272 ISO.
Opposing pitcher, Jaime Barria has troublesome Statcast data, allowing opposing hitters to average a 229-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate. This could bode well for Reyes, who has posted a 225-foot average distance, 95 mph exit velocity and 44% hard-hit rate over the past two weeks.
Trey Mancini owns a 91% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and the Orioles have a respectable 5.0 implied run total. Even though it’s a righty-righty matchup, he’ll be on the positive side of his splits, sporting a .361 wOBA and .247 ISO against righties over the last 12 months. Mancini is in solid form with his 233-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis or how to bet on sports.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Nelson Cruz and Max Kepler
Photo credit: Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
