The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel will offer 11-game main slates starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers who cost $10,000 or higher:
- Gerrit Cole (R), $11,700, HOU vs. OAK
- Mike Clevinger (R), $10,200, CLE @ TOR
Cole Checks in as the most expensive option on Monday’s main slate. He’s been dominant over his last 10 starts, averaging a +8.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70% Consistency Rating. The matchup doesn’t stand out on paper as the A’s rank 12th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), and their projected lineup has .342 wOBA against righties over the past year. Although, their 26.4% strikeout rate does work in Cole’s favor.
You always know what you’re getting with Cole: Strikeout upside with a high floor and ceiling. Overall, he possesses a 2.57 xFIP with a massive 37.5% strikeout rate this year. And the Astros have some of the best Vegas data on the slate since they’re -226 moneyline favorites and the A’s have an implied run total of just 3.6.
Rostering Cole just comes down to how you want to attack roster construction on Monday night. There are some other options priced below him that are viable if you want more salary for hitters.
Clevinger boasts a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He’s set to square off against a Blue Jays team that isn’t great against right-handed pitchers as their projected lineup has a 26.2% strikeout rate and middling .327 wOBA. They also ran just 24th in wRC+ against them this season.
It’s slightly concerning that he’s allowed a 98-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate over his last two starts, but he still carries plenty of strikeout potential. While Clevinger is a viable cash option, I’d rather use him in tournaments and just pay up for Cole, or look to Robbie Ray slightly further down the price range for cash games.
Values
Value options are hard to come by on Monday, but Trevor Richards has some appeal, especially on FanDuel with his 83% Bargain Rating, where he costs just $6,200. There’s obviously some risk in Richards since the White Sox are implied for 4.9 runs and the Marlins are underdogs in this spot. But, his 20.8% strikeout rate isn’t terrible, and Richards 7.0 K Prediction is the seventh-highest mark on the slate.
The projected White Sox lineup still strikes out a decent amount, sporting a 27.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s a viable punt on FanDuel if you want to load up on bats for tournaments and a potential SP2 option on DraftKings.
Robbie Ray is more of a value on FanDuel with his 97% Bargain Rating. Ray’s biggest concern has always been his propensity to walk batters, which he’s done 11.5% of the time this year, but he still has an excellent 30.7% strikeout rate.
Ray and the Diamondbacks have strong Vegas data as the Orioles are implied for only 3.5 runs and the Diamondbacks are the largest favorite on Monday, boasting -243 moneyline odds. He carries a strong 8.5 K Prediction and the Orioles rank just 24th in wRC+ against lefties this year. Ray is likely where I am turning to for cash games on FanDuel if I need the savings from Cole.
He should turn out just fine if he can keep his walks to a minimum. Luckily, the Orioles’ 6.3% walk-rate against lefties this season is the third-worst mark this year.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s strictly a tournament play for me. Rodriguez is affordable on FanDuel with his 99% Bargain Rating, and he carries a solid 7.1 K Prediction. The matchup doesn’t stand out on paper with the Rays’ projected lineup carrying just a 23.4% strikeout rate, but they do have a subpar .295 wOBA against lefties over the past year. Their 4.1 implied run total is the fourth-lowest mark on the night.
Adrian Sampson: Depending on your risk tolerance, you could look to Sampson on DraftKings since he costs just $4,100. His +10.68 Projected Plus/Minus leads all pitchers on DraftKings.
Alec Mills: He’s another salary-relief option on DraftKings. His +6.51 Projected Plus/Minus is the fifth-highest mark. The strikeout upside might not be there since the projected Giants lineup has a 20.6% strikeout rate, but they have an abysmal .249 wOBA and rank 25th in wRC+ against righties this season.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins.
- 1. Mitch Garver (R)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 5. C.J. Cron (R)
Total salary: $17,700
The Twins’ 5.6 implied run total ranks as the third-highest for Monday night, while their Team Value Rating of 80 ranks fourth among all teams in the Vegas Dashboard. They’ll square off against CC Sabathia, who has a 4.77 xFIP and 14.2% K-BB% this year.
Overall, Minnesota has been excellent against lefties this season, ranking inside the top four in team ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The matchup against a righty puts Garver on the positive side of his batting splits, hitting lefties to the tune of a .445 wOBA and .344 ISO over the last 12 months. Over the last two weeks, Garver has also drawn an absurd amount of hard contact, evidenced by his 96-mph exit velocity and 68% hard-hit rate. Both marks exceed his 12-month averages.
With the exception of Polanco, this entire stack will be on the positive side of their splits. Cruz and Cron each have wOBAs above .386 and ISOs above .294. This stack is a solid value on DraftKings as three of the four hitters have Bargain Ratings of at least 91%.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Miami Marlins.
- 1. Miguel Rojas (R)
- 2. Neil Walker (S)
- 3. Garrett Cooper (R)
- 4. Brian Anderson (R)
Total salary: $9,700
It’s not often the Marlins rate out as a top stack, but here we are. They lead FanDuel with a Team Value Rating of 94, and their 4.7 implied run total may depress their ownership because it ranks somewhere in the middle of all teams today.
The benefit of this stack is how incredibly cheap it is, so it’ll allow you to shape your roster in just about any way you see fit. It’s a good spot against Ivan Nova, who has a 4.86 xFIP with an awful 8.4% K-BB% this season. He’s been exceptionally bad over the past 12 months, possessing a 1.48 WHIP, 1.59 HR/9 and 5.76 K/9. All of those metrics rank in the bottom four among pitcher on Monday.
Cooper has some of the best Statcast data on the slate, owning a 260-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate over the past two weeks. Overall, those marks his 12-month averages by +58 feet, +4-mph and +9.0 percentage points.
Other Batters
Jordan Luplow has an 84% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and has throttled left-handed pitchers over the past year, boasting an elite .419 wOBA with a .331 ISO. He’s also in exceptional batted-ball form, owning a 247-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate.
Francisco Lindor is enticing against Ryan Borucki, who has been battling elbow injuries this season. Lindor is in excellent batted-ball form, possessing a 237-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity an 44% hard-hit rate. His recent average distance exceeds his 12-month average by 20 feet. Lindor’s median projected in our models rank in the top four on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Robbie Ray
Photo credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
