The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel will offer 10-game main slates starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there is just one pitcher at $10,000 or higher:
- Blake Snell (R), $10,000, TB vs. CWS
Snell has somewhat bounced back after a few disastrous outings near the end of June. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in all three, and that includes two starts against the Yankees.
Next on deck is a projected White Sox lineup with a 27.5% strikeout rate and .303 wOBA against lefties over the last year. Snell is one of the best options on the day since Snell and the Rays lead the slate with a -252 moneyline, 3.1 opponent implied run total, along with a whopping 9.9 K Prediction.
At the time of writing, there aren’t any lines for a few games, but the White Sox are the only team with an implied run total under 4.0 runs. Snell should provide a solid floor and ceiling for Sunday’s slate. His +11.87 Projected Plus/Minus is among the best mark on the day.
Values
Houston’s Rogelio Armenteros will get his first start of the season against the Rangers. He pitched well on Tuesday in just four innings, but it sounds like this will be a normal start for the young pitcher. Through nine innings pitched this season he has a 4.08 xFIP with a 24.3% strikeout rate and 18.9% K-BB%.
The matchup doesn’t stand out on paper as the Rangers rank 14th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) this year against right-handed pitchers, but their 4.2 implied run total is the second-lowest mark on the slate. He could be punt-worthy in tournaments on FanDuel with his 99% Bargain Rating, but he’s still an SP2 option on DraftKings.
Fastballs
James Paxton: The projected Rockies lineup has just a 24.6% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year, but Paxton’s 7.8 K Prediction is still the fourth-highest mark on the day. Overall, the Yankees are sizable -191 moneyline favorites, and the Rockies rank just 24th in wRC+ against lefties this year. He’s probably the best option for cash games if you don’t want to pay up for Snell.
Jack Flaherty: He enters this game in good form, allowing just two earned and striking out 14 hitters over his last two starts. Overall, Flaherty has been decent this year, pitching to a 4.07 xFIP with a 26.7% strikeout rate. The Park Factor of 37 and the Reds’ 4.8 implied run total isn’t ideal, but Flaherty carries an 8.3 K Prediction and the Reds rank just 27th in wRC+ against righties this season.
Kyle Hendricks: He should benefit from the 10-mph winds blowing straight in from center field in Chicago. It’s an unimposing matchup as the Padres rank 20th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and their projected lineup has a 25.5% strikeout rate with a .297 wOBA against righties over the last year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Cleveland Indians.
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 3. Carlos Santana (S)
- 4. Jason Kipnis (L)
- 5. Jose Ramirez (S)
Total salary: $18,200
The Indians are one of three teams on Sunday with an implied run total over 6.0. Overall, their 6.4 implied runs trails only the Red Sox’s 7.5 implied run total. They’re in a great spot against Glenn Sparkman, who has an abysmal 1.40 WHIP and 5.38 K/9 over the past year. And this season, he has a 5.28 xFIP and 7.6 K-BB%.
With the exception of Lindor, this entire stack on DraftKings carries Bargain Ratings of at least 91%. However, the spot for Lindor is exceptional considering he has hit righties to the tune of a .339 wOBA and .202 ISO over the last 12 months. He’s also in the best batted-ball form of this stack, sporting a 236-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity.
Overall, the Indians should make for a decent target with their high implied run total and 84 Team Value Rating on DraftKings, per our Vegas Dashboard.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Rafael Devers (L)
- 3. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 6. Christian Vazquez (R)
Total salary: $15,800
It’s no surprise to see the Red Sox rate out as one of the top stacks on Sunday because their 7.5 implied leads the whole slate. Additionally, they have a Team Value Rating of 99. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Betts has throttled right-handed pitchers over the past year, boasting an elite .407 wOBA and .248 ISO. He’s also in good form with his 245-foot average batted-ball distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. Betts’ batted-ball distance is 16 feet further than his 12-month average while his hard-hit rate is seven percentage points higher.
Bogaerts and Vazquez also have excellent batted-ball data with their 239 and 238-foot average distance, and Vasquez’s 95-mph exit velocity is the highest mark in this stack. Devers’ batted-ball data isn’t as good, but he’ll be on the positive side of his splits with his .397 wOBA and .255 ISO.
Those metrics should bode well against Asher Wojciechowski, who has allowed a 295-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate over his last three starts.
Other Batters
Jackie Bradley is an intriguing option despite hitting from the No. 7 spot in the lineup. Even though it feels a little bit like point chasing after he notched two home runs on Saturday, he leads both DraftKings and FanDuel in Projected Plus/Minus, which makes him a solid value and cheap exposure to a high implied run total. He’ll also be on the positive side of his splits, boasting a .357 wOBA and .222 ISO against righties over the past 12 months.
Aaron Hicks has a 75% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and could be a good way to get exposure to the Yankees’ 6.2 implied run total. He’s projected to his from the No. 5 spot and will be on the positive side of his splits, boasting a .383 wOBA with a .240 ISO against righties. He’s also in good form, possessing a 235-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate. All of which exceed his 12-month averages.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis, including how to bet.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers
Photo credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
