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DraftKings and FanDuel have a 15-game all-day slate starting at 2:10 p.m. ET and a six-game early slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Both of their seven-game main slates begin at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost $10,000 or more:
- Max Scherzer (R), $12,400, WAS vs. KC
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,500, HOU vs. LAA
- Shane Bieber (R) $10,800, CLE @ CIN
Scherzer is easily the top option on Saturday’s early slate with his 50.4-point median projection, which leads everyone else by at least seven points. There really isn’t too much that needs to be said about him. He’s averaging an excellent +9.52 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the past month, and the Royals are implied for a slate-low 3.0 implied run total.
The Nationals check in with massive -374 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have historically been incredibly consistent, averaging a 70.6% Consistency Rating, per our Trends tool.
Cole isn’t a slam dank on Saturday since he draws a difficult matchup against an Angels team that ranks fifth in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this year, and its projected lineup carries a low 22.6% strikeout rate against them over the past year.
That said, Cole has been dominant this season, pitching to a 2.68xFIP with an elite 36.8% strikeout rate and 30.4% K-BB%. Overall, the Astros lead the main slate with -198 moneyline odds, and the Angels’ 3.5 implied run total is the lowest mark on the night. Even though he might not have the most upside in this spot, he’s still a solid floor play on the main slate.
Bieber has been solid this year, averaging a +4.16 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 65% Consistency Rating. And through 17 starts, he owns a 3.10 xFIP with a 26.2% K-BB%. The Reds’ 4.4 implied run total is on the higher side for a pitcher who is this expensive, but their projected lineup has a 27% strikeout rate and subpar .309 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. They also rank just 28th in wRC+ against them this season.
Furthermore, Bieber has elite Statcast data over his last two starts, holding opposing hitters to just a 156-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity and 26% hard-hit rate. He’s pitching in a hitters park at Great American Ball Park, but his 13% fly-ball rate over his last two games could help mitigate the risk. Bieber is a good play, but he’s not the best value, sporting a Projected Plus/Minus of just +1.56 on FanDuel.
Values
Kenta Maeda costs just $6,700 on FanDuel and $7,700 on DraftKings. His 4.41 xFIP and 16.3% K-BB% doesn’t jump off the page, and neither does the matchup as the Padres rank 18th in wRC+, though they do have a 26.8% strikeout rate against righties over the past year.
The risk with Maeda is he doesn’t really pitch that deep into games. We have him projected for around 88 pitches tonight which is the second-lowest total on the main slate. However, that risk is built into his cost with his cheap price tag. He’s a viable punt on FanDuel or SP2 candidate on DraftKings, but he’s probably not someone I would build around on a single-pitcher site for cash games.
Max Fried is more of a value on DraftKings where he costs just $6,500, resulting in a 99% Bargain Rating. At the time of writing, the Braves are the second-largest favorites on the early slate, and the Marlins are one of two teams who have an implied run total under 4.0.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray: He’ll square off against a projected Rockies team that has an incredibly high 30.4% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. The Diamondbacks are just slight favorites in this game, but Ray should provide a nice strikeout floor in this spot.
Madison Bumgarner: He’ll take on a projected Cardinals lineup with a 27.9% strikeout rate and abysmal .275 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past year. Bumgarner also has the advantage of being at home, resulting in 93 Park Factor.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model on the early slate belongs to the Washington Nationals.
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon(R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
Total salary: $20,100
The Nationals’ 6.1 implied run total is the highest total on the early slate by 0.8 runs at the time of writing. Their total has already increased 0.4 runs since the lines were posted, and they have a slate-best Team Value Rating of 83 in our Vegas Dashboard.
It’s an elite matchup against Glenn Sparkman, who has allowed 13 earned runs, 16 hits and six home runs over his last two outings. As a result, he has abysmal Statcast data, allowing hitters to average a 259-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate. And his 51% fly-ball rate should certainly help the Nationals’ bats.
Soto stands out the most in this stack with his .410 wOBA and .234 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His elite Statcast data should bode well for him against Sparkman. Soto boasts a 255-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate over the past two weeks, all of which exceed his 12-month averages.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics.
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Matt Olson (L)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
Total salary: $14,300
The A’s stack didn’t pay dividends on Friday, but they check in as another top stack today. Their 5.1 implied run total is tied with the Astros for the highest on the main slate, and the A’s lead the slate with their 83 Team Value Rating. They’ll take on Marco Gonzales, who isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher, and he’s allowed a fair amount of hard contact over the last two weeks, evidenced by his 93-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate.
His poor Statcast data could match up well with this stack since all four of them possess exit velocities between 95-97 mph and hard-hit rate between 48%-60%. Olson, in particular, stands out with his 77% Bargain Rating and his 242-foot average distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 60% hard-hit rate.
The A’s could be among the more popular teams to target on this limited slate with their high implied run total.
Other Batters
If you’re dabbling the all-day slate, the Blue Jays have the highest implied run total on the day at 6.2 runs. The switch-hitting Justin Smoak will square off against the right-handed Andrew Cashner, which puts him on the positive side of his batting splits. Smoak has hit righties to the tune of a .390 wOBA and .281 ISO over the past year.
Josh Bell has been running hot over the past month, averaging a +9.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 50% Consistency Rating. Bell carries a 70% Bargain Rating for the early slate on FanDuel, and the Pirates are implied for a respectable 5.0 runs. Bell has absolutely throttled right-handed pitchers over the past year, boasting an elite .432 wOBA and .303 ISO. He’s expensive, but he could be worth it.
The Astros are in a prime spot against Andrew Heaney, who possesses a slate-high 1.76 HR/9 over the past year. He also owns some of the worst Statcast data among pitchers on the main slate, allowing opposing hitters to average a 235-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 57% hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez own exceptional Statcast data over the past two weeks. Alvarez has an excellent 242-foot average distance with a 97-mph exit velocity and 52% hard-hit rate. Bregman’s isn’t quite as impressive with a 221-foot average distance and 91-mph exit velocity, but he does have the second-highest median and ceiling projection among shortstops in our models, along with a .384 wOBA and .256 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Juan Soto
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
