The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Happy Memorial Day! Nothing goes better with a day off from work than a full day of baseball, and both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering two slates to choose from. There’s a main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET — DraftKings features 10 games, FanDuel features seven – and a four-game night slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with high-end pitching options. Four starters have a salary of at least $10,200 on DraftKings:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,300, HOU vs. CHC
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,100, WSH vs. MIA
- Luis Castillo (R) $10,700, CIN vs. PIT
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,200, LAD vs. NYM
Cole has had a bit of an up and down start to his 2019 season. He’s pitched to a 4.11 ERA, which is significantly higher than his 2.88 mark from last season. That said, he’s been arguably the best strikeout pitcher in baseball this year, averaging a K/9 of 13.71. That’s the top mark in the league by a full strikeout, and it suggests that that some positive regression is likely headed his way.
Unfortunately, he has a tough matchup today vs. the Chicago Cubs. Their projected lineup has fared well against right-handed pitchers, posting a .343 wOBA over the past 12 months. Cole’s resulting implied team total of 3.6 is still the third-lowest mark of the day, but it’s well behind the marks for some of the other stud pitchers. Still, he always has appeal for guaranteed prize pools given his strikeout upside, and he should command lower ownership than usual.
Scherzer is another pitcher who seems due for some positive regression. He’s pitched to a 3.41 ERA through his first 11 starts, but his 2.35 FIP suggests he’s been much better than the traditional numbers indicate.
He’s in an absolutely elite spot today vs. the Miami Marlins. Their projected lineup has been awful against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .280 wOBA and 28.7% strikeout rate. Scherzer leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 9.3 and moneyline odds of -286, while his opponent implied team total of 2.9 ranks second. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.58 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). He’s an elite option across the industry, but he’s particularly appealing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 82%.
The Reds and Pirates will play a double-header on today’s slate, and Castillo will get the ball in the early game. He’s been phenomenal to start the year, pitching to a 2.38 ERA and posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.33 on FanDuel.
He’s another pitcher with elite Vegas data, owning a 3.7 opponent implied team total and -213 moneyline odds vs. the Pirates. What differentiates him from the other stud pitchers is his lack of strikeout upside. The Pirates’ projected lineup has struck out in just 22.8% of at bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Castillo a mediocre K Prediction of 5.8. He’s a better option on FanDuel, where his $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jose Peraza and Tucker Barnhart
Kershaw rounds out the stud group, and he’s coming off one of his best starts of the season. He limited the Rays to just two runs over 6.1 innings while recording eight strikeouts, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +11.52 on FanDuel.
He’s been dominant from a Statcast perspective over his past two starts, limiting opposing batters to an average distance of just 170 feet. That represents a decrease of -25 feet when compared to his 12-month average, which is one of the top marks on the slate.
Kershaw is in an interesting spot today vs. the New York Mets. Their implied team total of 2.8 runs is the lowest mark on the slate, and Kershaw has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.57 on DraftKings when pitching at home with a comparable implied team total. That said, his moneyline odds of -169 are lower than usual given his matchup vs. Jacob deGrom. Kershaw has also pitched to a K/9 of just 8.61 this season, which is the lowest mark of his illustrious career. That limits his upside for GPPs.
Values
Yonny Chirinos is expected to get the start for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he’ll draw a favorable matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Their projected lineup has really struggled vs. right-handers, posting a .268 wOBA and 30.0% strikeout rate over the past 12 months.
Chirinos also has an elite batted ball profile from his past two starts, particularly his hard hit rate of just 10%. That represents a decrease of -27 percentage points when compared to his 12-month average. He’s an elite value at just $5,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Homer Bailey is not someone you want to target on a regular basis, but he has some appeal today as an SP2 on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $5,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%, and he has an excellent matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox. Their projected lineup has struck out in 25.8% of at bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and Bailey has averaged a respectable 8.43 K/9 this season. No pitcher on today’s slate is projected for more points per dollar, and only Scherzer is projected for a better Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Jacob deGrom: He hasn’t come close to replicating his results from last season, and the Mets offense isn’t expected to provide him much support today vs. Kershaw. Still, this in an opportunity to buy an elite pitcher at reduced salary and ownership. That’s always appealing for GPPs.
Matt Strahm: He has a difficult matchup vs. the Yankees, who can do a lot of damage vs. left-handed pitchers. That said, they also strikeout in bunches, and Strahm has posted a K/9 of 9.26 over the past 12 months. He has some upside.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 1. Josh Reddick (L)
- 2. Alex Bregman (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Carlos Correa (R)
- 5. Yulieski Gurriel (R)
Total Salary: $19,900
The Astros have a tough matchup today vs. Cole Hamels, but their implied team total of 5.0 runs still ranks fifth on the main slate. They’re also very reasonably priced considering their total, resulting in a Team Value Rating of 77 on DraftKings. That’s important on a slate where you’ll probably want to roster a stud pitcher.
The Astros are also experiencing some reverse line movement. Their implied team total has increased from 4.6 to 5.0 and their moneyline odds have moved from -167 to -181 despite receiving just 43% of the bets. That’s likely an indicator that sharp bettors are siding with the Astros.
Hamels has pitched to a 3.38 ERA this season, but he’s been hit pretty hard over his past two starts. He’s allowed opposing batters to post an average distance of 235 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 62%, all of which represent massive increases when compared to his 12-month averages. That could spell trouble against a potent Astros’ offense, which ranks first in the league in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers.
On the late slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- 1. Lorenzo Cain (R)
- 2. Christian Yelich (L)
- 3. Ryan Braun (R)
- 6. Eric Thames (L)
Total Salary: $13,500
The Brewers’ implied team total of 4.6 ranks just fourth on the late slate, which should result in reasonable ownership. That said, they have an exploitable matchup vs. Michael Pineda, who has pitched to a 5.43 ERA this season. He’s also been hit hard over his past two starts, allowing opposing batters to compile an average distance of 244 feet and 93 mile per hour exit velocity.
Stacking them in the above 1-2-3-6 manner should further help with ownership. Thames is projected for just 5-8% ownership despite the fact that he enters this contest in good recent form. He’s posted a hard hit rate of 52% over his past 10 games, which makes him an appealing target at just $2,500.
Other Batters
The Red Sox own the top implied team total of the day at 5.8 runs, and Andrew Benintendi stands out as an elite option. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup and has crushed the baseball over his past 12 games. He’s posted an average distance of 252 feet, which represents an increase of +32 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Leadoff hitters with comparable implied team totals and distance differentials have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.78 on FanDuel.
Niko Goodrum is one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s taking on Orioles right-hander Gabriel Ynoa, and Goodrum has posted a .304 wOBA and .181 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s another projected leadoff hitter who also enters today’s contest in elite recent form, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +20 feet and hard hit differential of +10 percentage points.
Shin-Soo Choo could be a bit overlooked on the late slate. He’s in a lefty-lefty matchup vs. Mariners starter Tommy Milone, which is an automatic disqualifier for some DFS players. That said, he has some of the best Statcast data in baseball over the past 15 days, and he’ll likely get at least one at bat vs. the Mariners’ bullpen. He could theoretically get as many at bats vs. right-handers as he does vs. left-handers in today’s contest.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw (22)
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA Today Sports
