The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
FanDuel and DraftKings are offering a 15-game all-day slate beginning at 2:10 p.m ET.
Additionally, DraftKings is offering a 10-game early slate at 2:10 p.m. ET while FanDuel’s six-game early slate starts at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Both sites’ main slates start at 7:15 p.m. ET.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest sports conversation delivered to your inbox each day.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Patrick Corbin (L) $11,200, WSH vs. MIA
- Hyun-jin Ryu (L) $11,000, LAD @ PIT
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,400, CLE @ TB
Corbin is only available on the all-day and early slates. He is easily the top option as he goes against the Marlins. Miami’s projected lineup has a middling 24.4% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months, but its .266 wOBA vs. southpaws is abysmal. The Marlins also rank dead last in team ISO and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties this season.
Furthermore, Corbin has a solid 7.8 K Prediction. His Vegas data is also favorable, as the Marlins are implied for just 3.4 runs and the Nationals are -215 on the moneyline (view live odds here). Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +5.15 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 61.8% Consistency Rating, per our MLB Trends tool.
Ryu looks like the most appealing option on the main slate. The Pirates’ 23.8% strikeout rate doesn’t stand out, but they have a subpar .308 wOBA and rank 27th or worse in team ISO and wRC+. Moreover, they are the only team on the main slate with an implied run total (3.4) under 4.0 runs as of publication.
Ryu has been dominant this season from a fantasy standpoint, averaging a +8.29 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 89% Consistency Rating. He also boasts a 2.72 xFIP and 25.6% K-BB% this year, which are outstanding.
Carrasco has been a bit unlucky this season. His ERA is more than a run higher than his 3.29 xFIP, and his 26.3% K-BB% is stellar. One concern for Carrasco, however, is that the Rays have a top-seven offense this season in team ISO and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. I prefer Corbin over Carrasco on the early slate if you’re paying up, but the projected Rays lineup has a 25.9% strikeout rate — highest on the early slate — which should at least give Carrasco a decent floor (K Prediction of 8.5).
Values
The value options are underwhelming, which make the top-tier of pitchers more enticing, especially in cash games.
Tyler Skaggs goes against the Rangers. The matchup doesn’t particularly stand out — Texas ranks 10th in team ISO and 20th in wRC+ — but the Rangers’ projected lineup for today sports a reasonably high 26.1% strikeout rate, earning him a K Prediction of 6.7, the second-highest mark on the main slate. The most intriguing value option among a lackluster group, Skaggs should work well in roster builds that feature expensive hitters, such as those at Coors.
Kyle Gibson is a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings. Gibson’s Bargain Rating is 74% on the former, though he is still a viable SP2 candidate on the latter for the early slate. He draws one of the best early-slate matchups, as the projected White Sox lineup has a 25.8% strikeout rate and .300 wOBA. The Sox also rank 22nd in team ISO and 19th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. And Gibson has been fairly decent this year overall, pitching to a 3.44 xFIP and 18% K-BB%.
Fastballs
Jhoulys Chacin could be punt-worthy on DraftKings (79% Bargain Rating). Though his 5.8 K Prediction isn’t anything to write home about — it’s the eighth-highest mark on DraftKings’ early slate — the Phillies have been underwhelming against righties, ranking 15th in wRC+ and just 20th in team ISO.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man early-slate DraftKings stacks from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the San Diego Padres.
- 1. Greg Garcia (L)
- 2. Franmil Reyes (R)
- 3. Manny Machado (R)
- 6. Josh Naylor (L)
Total salary: $15,300
The Padres’ 5.2 implied run total leads the early slate, so it’s not surprising that their Team Value Rating of 79 in our Vegas Dashboard is also a slate high. San Diego takes on Edwin Jackson, who has been awful in his two starts this season (5.08 xFIP, 8.9% K-BB%).
Machado will be on the negative side of his batting splits but is in good recent batted-ball form: His 221-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 58% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days each exceed his 12-month averages. Meanwhile, Reyes has smashed right-handed pitching over the past year to the tune of a .348 wOBA and .275 ISO.
One of the benefits of this Padres stack is that it’s rather cheap and thus affords the flexibility necessary to roster some of the more expensive pitchers and/or hitters.
One of the top FanDuel stacks on the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies.
- 1. Raimel Tapia (L)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. David Dahl (L)
- 5. Daniel Murphy (L)
Total salary: $14,900
Other Batters
C.J. Cron is intriguing against Manny Banuelos, who has allowed 19 earned runs over his past three starts. Cron has dominated left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, crushing them to the tune of a .414 wOBA and .306 ISO. He has been in good form as of late, boasting a 229-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks. Moreover, his average distance over the past 15 days exceeds his 12-month average by 21 feet, a trend which has historically been a positive for hitters.
Aledmys Diaz is a potential salary-saving option. Diaz is expected to hit from the No. 6 spot for the Astros, and while it is not the best spot for him as he faces David Price, his .349 wOBA and .243 ISO marks against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months provide reason for optimism.
It won’t hurt to expand your exposure to baseball’s best hitting environment beyond just rostering players on the Rockies, and Keon Broxton could be a cheap way to achieve this. Broxton carries a 75% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is also a good salary relief option on FanDuel. Historically, hitters with comparable Bargain Ratings and median projections at Coors have averaged a +1.34 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: C.J. Cron
Photo credit: David Berding-USA TODAY Sports
