Stacking in MLB DFS has become an essential part of the game. We’ve covered the topic quite thoroughly in the past and due to its importance, we’re laying out situations that both behoove themselves to stacking and others that may warrant fading a potentially popular stack on a slate.
As this article is written earlier in the day, be sure to monitor both our Player News and My Lineups page to ensure that you have the most up-to-date information.
Today’s main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel is quite small at only six games. Anytime we see small slates such as these, there’s bound to be lineup overlap galore, particularly involving teams with high implied run totals. There are some teams in really nice spots today, but with so few options on the slate their ownership is likely to be a bit higher than I’d prefer to target for tournaments. With that said, let’s look outside those higher run totals and target a team with a lower implied run total that I think could have some Upside based upon its matchup.
Stack to Target
Oakland Athletics – Projected Run Total: 3.7
Looking at Oakland’s projected starting lineup, one will see that four of the top five spots will be filled by batters swinging left-handed today. For those unaware, at Yankee Stadium, this is a good thing. For those needing further convincing, let’s turn to our Trends tool to illustrate.
I’ve compiled a very simple yet powerful trend consisting of three filters: Left-handed batter, lineup order of 1-5 and Yankee Stadium:
So without factoring in anything else, we know that lefties in the top half of the order playing in the Bronx have an average Plus/Minus of +0.72. That alone should tell us that there is some value to be had by rostering players from this lineup today. But whom exactly should we roster?
The image you’re seeing above is pulled directly from our Player Models and is just a snippet of the value the models offer our subscribers. As I’m sure you’ve already guessed, green is good and red is not so good. To see a grouping of splits this solid, particularly among the top half of the lineup, in a locale so attractive to the majority of the lineup — lefties have a Park Factor of 81 in Yankee Stadium — is something that we can exploit.
And as for this lineup’s matchup against Luis Severino? Well, I’m not exactly scared of a pitcher who has allowed 18 hits and has a 1.78 WHIP through his first two starts.
Obviously we’re working with a small sample size, but Severino has allowed eight and 10 hits in his two starts this year, so it isn’t as if he was shelled on a single night and then recovered. To his credit, he has managed to work himself out of jams, allowing only seven earned runs despite the abundance of base runners. But with players smashing the ball against him — his Exit Velocity Differential sits at +4 miles per hour, meaning that the ball is coming off the bat four MPH faster over the past fifteen days (his two starts this year) compared to the previous year — I’m apt to believe the floodgates are bound to open at some point in the near future unless he corrects this.
Sticking to the 1-5 spots from this lineup makes sense, but differentiating and working in guys like Khris Davis or Jed Lowrie isn’t a horrible idea either, as Lowrie’s price is cheap enough and Davis’s .271 Isolated Power is the highest on the team.
Good luck tonight!
