At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
MLB Trend of the Day: Getting the Most Out of an Expensive Pitcher
Trying to identify which expensive pitcher to roster in cash games is difficult on a daily basis. We know it is generally ideal to pay up for pitching — especially when a pitcher meets all of the right requirements — but how do we separate the good from the great? Let’s test a few trends that I look for when choosing a pitcher to anchor my cash lineups.
Step 1: Player Filters > Salary > 10,000 to 15,700
When paying up for elite pitchers on DraftKings, you are likely to spend $10,000 or more on a top option. The +1.54 Plus/Minus makes sense because, in order to be expensive in the first place, you have to be a damn good pitcher. Even then, it is significant that expensive pitchers still exceed their already-high expectations. A pricey pitcher also needs to excel in the most important pitching metric: strikeouts.
Step 2: Stat Filters > SO Per 9 > 8.9 to 12.3
We see a healthy bump in Plus/Minus when adjusting the minimum K/9 to 8.5. When looking at pitchers in cash games, a high floor needs to be emphasized. The easiest way to predict a high floor is to look at strikeouts because they help limit risk. Pitchers who do not strikeout many hitters have a lower floor because they are more dependent on factors outside their control, such as receiving a win. One more filter that we can look at is utilizing Vegas information.
Step 3: Vegas Filters > Vegas Score > 95 to 100
My favorite Vegas metric is the Vegas Score. It incorporates all Vegas-based factors (run total, moneyline, line movement, etc). Setting the Vegas Score to 95 and above gives us a Plus/Minus of +4.0 for pitchers. Even with expensive price tags, pitchers are performing well above their expected points. This essentially strengthens the idea that paying for pitching in cash games is typically the right play.
Looking at current pitchers, it is no surprise that we get Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta as matches. Gerrit Cole also makes the cut and offers the most salary relief. While saving enough salary to afford solid hitters, and also maintaining a high enough floor, Cole makes for arguably the best option in Thursday’s main slate.
Cole may or may not have written this post.
