The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer a 10-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest sports conversation delivered to your inbox each day.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $9,000:
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $9,700, TB @ BOS
- Kevin Gausman (R) $9,400, ATL vs. COL
- Chris Sale (L) $9,200 BOS vs. TB
The odd season for Sale has led to Glasnow being the most-expensive pitcher on Sunday’s main slate in the Rays-Red Sox game despite the Rays sitting at +136 on the moneyline. He’s been solid this year, sporting 3.33 xFIP with a 21.7% K-BB%, but given his price and the overall matchup against a projected Red Sox lineup that has a low 23.2% strikeout rate and slate-high .351 Weighted On-Base Average, Glasnow is better reserved as a tournament option and not so much cash games.
Gausman checks in as the second-most expensive pitcher on the slate. They have a sizeable -163 moneyline, but the matchup doesn’t seem particularly exploitable against a Rockies team with a middling 24.8% strikeout rate and .319 wOBA. Additionally, Gausman has a K Prediction of just 5.5 — the sixth-lowest mark on the slate. That’s a high price tag to pay for someone who may not strike out many hitters.
His form over his past two starts also isn’t great as he owns a 221-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate, all of which are worse than his 12-month average.
Sale finally had a bounce-back game in his last start after striking out 10 Tigers through five innings. It was his first game of the season in which he struck out more than six batters. He’s been awful this year, pitching to a 4.46 xFIP with a 16% K-BB%, per FanGraphs.
Whether Sale can build off his last start remains to be seen, but it’s an intriguing spot against a projected Rays lineup that has a 25.9% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year and a 30.2% strikeout rate this season. They’ve also shown a lack of power against lefties this season, ranking just 23rd in team ISO.
Update: At the time of writing, Matt Boyd was missing from our projections. He’s an excellent play against a projected White Sox lineup with a 27.2% strikeout rate and .300 wOBA against lefties over the past year. They also don’t own much power against lefties this year, possessing the 25th-ranked team ISO against left-handed pitchers this year. That said, I don’t think he’s a necessary spend in cash games on FanDuel at his price tag. He’s a slightly better value on DraftKings with his 51% Bargain Rating.
Values
Zach Eflin has a 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and gets a favorable draw against a projected Marlins lineup that has a 26.4% strikeout rate and .287 wOBA against righties over the past year. Even better is the Marlins rank 26th or worse in strikeout rate, ISO and wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. If you want to load up on bats, Eflin could be a good target with his 6.2 K Prediction, while the Marlins are implied for a meager 3.3 runs.
Kyle Gibson gets a matchup against a projected Orioles lineup with a mediocre .296 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. And while they actually haven’t struck out much against right-handed pitchers, they do rank 20th or worse in both team ISO and wRC+ this season. The Twins are presently the largest favorites on the main slate with a -189 moneyline.
Fastballs
Steve Matz: He carries a 6.3 K Prediction against a projected Brewers lineup with the second-highest strikeout rate (27.1%) on Sunday. While the Mets are favored (-115 moneyline), there is some cause for concern with the Brewers boasting the fifth-highest team ISO against right-handed pitchers this season. But, he’s an interesting tournament pivot off Gibson or Eflin.
Jack Flaherty: His 5.25 ERA and 3.12 xFIP suggest Flaherty has been unlucky so far this year. Overall, he’s a solid mid-range cash game option with an excellent 30.5% strikeout rate and 25.7% K-BB% this season. The Reds are implied for a paltry 3.6 runs.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics.
- 1. Robbie Grossman (S)
- 2. Marcus Semien (R)
- 3. Matt Chapman (R)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
Total salary: $17,100
On a slate without many high-implied run totals, the A’s lead DraftKings’ main slate with a Team Value Rating of 71 in our Vegas Dashboard.
Chapman has throttled right-handed pitching over the past year, boasting an elite .377 wOBA and .244 ISO. He’s also in good form, posting a 234-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. His recent average distance is +18 feet higher than his 12-month average.
Davis is in a similar boat, flaunting a .356 wOBA and .297 ISO. And, his +29 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests he’s been unlucky over the past two weeks and could be headed for some progression.
The top stack FanDuel stack when generated by projected points belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
- 1. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 2. Josh Donaldson (R)
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 4. Ronald Acuna (R)
Total salary: $16,000
The Braves’ 5.1 implied run total leads the slate, and they’re just one of two teams that presently owns an implied run total over 5.0.
This stack has dominated left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, especially Acuna, who owns a .443 wOBA and .331 ISO. Freeman is in good form over the past two weeks, possessing a 241-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate, not to mention his .384 wOBA and .215 ISO. Donaldson could be due for progression with his +19 RBBL. He’s been smoking the baseball of late, averaging a 248-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and absurd 64% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
In the Bales Model, Kole Calhoun is the highest-rated hitter. He’s been on fire over his past 10 games, averaging a +5.04 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 50% Consistency Rating. He’s in an excellent spot against Homer Bailey, who has an abysmal 1.70 WHIP and 1.87 HR/9 over the past year. Bailey has also allowed a ton of hard contract over his past three starts, allowing a 93-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate.
Calhoun has shown considerable power aginst righties over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .231 ISO. Mike Trout should also be in consideration against Bailey as he’s absolutely throttled righties, posting a .492 wOBA and .334 ISO.
The Twins have a top-four Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel against Dylan Bundy, who carries a slate-high 2.55 HR/9. The Twins’ projected 1-4 hitters are all extremely intriguing in Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, and Eddie Rosario. Most of them are on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits and Rosario and Cruz both possess ISOs above .243, while Polanco has an elite .395 wOBA.
Justin Smoak has an exceptional .383 wOBA and .263 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and he’s in absurd form, averaging a 261-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate over the past two weeks. Those marks dominate in his 12-month averages by +36 feet, +3 mph and +16 percentage points. Smoak presently leads all first basemen in our median projections.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun
Photo credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
