The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Monday’s slate is very light on top-end pitching options. Only three pitchers own a salary of at least $9,000 on FanDuel, and no one is priced above $9,400:
- Matt Boyd (L) $9,400, DET @ BOS
- Jake Arrieta (R) $9,200, PHI @ NYM
- Joe Musgrove (R) $9,000, PIT vs. ARI
This is one of the most uninspiring group of “stud” pitchers we’ve seen in the early season. Each of these pitchers has at least one major flaw.
Boyd has been excellent to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +13.91 on FanDuel through his first four starts. But he has a brutal matchup against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has absolutely destroyed left-handers over the past 12 months with a ridiculous .442? wOBA and 19.5% strikeout rate. Boyd’s resulting Vegas data isn’t just mediocre, it’s downright terrifying for a stud pitcher: 4.8 opponent implied team total and +188 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable opponent implied team totals and salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of -3.50 (per the Trends tool). He’s tough to roster in any format.
Arrieta also has a difficult matchup against the Mets, whose projected lineup has posted a .352 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving him an opponent implied team total of 4.4 runs.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jake Arrieta
Arrieta has also been a mediocre strikeout pitcher over the past year, posting an average K/9 of just 6.89, and his K Prediction of 3.7 is the lowest mark on the slate. It’s really difficult to justify paying up for a stud pitcher with that little strikeout upside, and comparable pitchers have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -4.33 on FanDuel. He’s a really easy fade.
Musgrove is the most appealing option of the group. He’s also been excellent to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +13.12 through his first three starts, and he has a strong matchup against the Diamondbacks. Their projected lineup isn’t intimidating — they’ve posted a .302 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months — and their offense has historically faltered when playing away from Chase Field. Right-handed pitchers have dominated the Diamondbacks at home so far this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.22 over nine starts. Musgrove easily leads the stud tier in both opponent implied team total (3.6 runs) and moneyline odds (-129).
The biggest red flag with Musgrove is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed has past two opponents to post an average distance of 230 feet, which represents an increase of +25 feet when compared to his 12-month average. That said, he hasn’t been hit particularly hard — his hard-hit rate of 32% is actually slightly lower than his 12-month average — so his distance increase is mostly a product of surrendering a lot of fly balls.
While that’s not ideal, it’s hard to get too critical on such a weak pitching slate.
Value
Chris Sale is arguably the most important player on this slate. Choosing to play him or fade him could be the deciding factor in cash games and guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
He’s been nothing short of a disaster through his first four starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of -25.02 on FanDuel. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also concerning, as he’s underperformed his 12-month marks in both average distance and exit velocity.
That said, this is still Chris Sale, and he did start to show some signs of life in his last outing. His average fastball velocity was up, which gives some optimism that he could return to his previous form.
He also benefits from an excellent matchup on this slate. He’s taking on the Detroit Tigers, and their projected lineup has struggled to a .285 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months. That’s the second-lowest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Sale leads all of Monday’s pitchers in both opponent implied team total (3.1 runs) and moneyline odds (-205), and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.85 on DraftKings. He also leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.8.
And just incase that wasn’t enough information to try and process, the weather in Boston also figures to be an issue. The current forecast calls for an 84% chance of precipitation at game time, which further increases the risk with Sale on Monday’s slate. This is a true boom-or-bust situation.
If you’re looking to avoid Sale for cash games — and I don’t blame you if you are — Brad Peacock is a viable pivot. Peacock enters his contest against the Twins in strong recent form, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -27 feet. Most of his work over that span has come out of the bullpen, but Peacock has thrived as a starter and reliever over the past few seasons.
He’s also pitched to an elite K/9 of 12.41 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 7.7 trails only Sale’s on this slate. Pitchers with comparable strikeout upside and recent Statcast marks have historically been great investments, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.06 on DraftKings. Pitching for the Astros’ high-powered offense also results in -170 moneyline odds.
Fastballs
Yonny Chirinos: This will be just his third start of the season, but he’s essentially worked as a starter out of the pen for much of the past two years. His opponent implied team total of 3.5 is tied for second on the slate while his moneyline odds of -162 ranks third.
Jack Flaherty: He has one of the biggest pricing discrepancies between the two sites on Monday, ranking as the most expensive starter on DraftKings but just the ninth-most expensive option on FanDuel. He owns solid marks across the board against the Brewers: 3.8 opponent implied team total, -151 moneyline odds and 6.8 K Prediction.
Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt: He makes some sense if you’re looking to spend way down at the position in order to stack Coors. He’s making just his first start of the season but pitched to a 3.02 ERA in 2018.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Monday’s top five man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Stephen Piscotty (R)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 6. Mark Canha (R)
Total salary: $18,800
The A’s are currently implied for 4.7 runs, which is tied for the sixth-highest mark on the slate. That said, they are one of the best pure values on DraftKings. Four of the five stacked batters own a Bargain Rating of at least 90%, and their Team Value Rating of 76 ranks first on the slate.
The A’s are also currently experiencing positive reverse line movement. Their implied team total has increased by +0.4 runs since opening despite receiving just 38% of the bets. That said, those bets have accounted for 65% of the money, which indicates that sharp bettors appear to be siding with them against the Rangers.
Stacking Coors is very doable on Monday’s slate, and the Rockies own one of the top four-man stacks on FanDuel:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. David Dahl (L)
- 4. Trevor Story (R)
- 5. Ryan McMahon (L)
Total salary: $15,800
The Rockies lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.7 runs, which will likely make them a popular target. That said, avoiding likely No. 3 hitter Nolan Arenado and replacing him with McMahon should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. McMahon is projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel, while Arenado is projected for 9-12%.
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ryan McMahon
McMahon has also made excellent contact over the past 15 days, albeit in limited playing time. He’s posted an average distance of 245 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 66%, all three of which represent sizable increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
The Rockies have an excellent matchup vs. Nationals right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, who is an extremely pedestrian pitcher at this point in his career. He’s particularly inept at striking batters out, so he relies on getting outs on balls put in play. While that’s a poor strategy in general, it can be downright disastrous at Coors Field.
Other Batters
Matt Carpenter checks a lot of boxes on this slate. He’s going to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup for a Cardinals team implied for 4.7 runs. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits against Brewers’ right-hander Adrian Houser. He’s made excellent contact over the past 15 days.
Carpenter should be a staple of cash game lineups at $3,200 on FanDuel and has plenty of upside for GPPs as well.
The White Sox are another strong stack option against Orioles’ right-hander David Hess. They have a bunch of appealing targets, but Leury Garcia stands out. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup and has strong Statcast marks over the past 15 days, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +25 feet. He’s also one of the better pure values on FanDuel, where his $3,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Brandon Nimmo has struggled to start the season, but he has a track record of success against right-handed pitchers. He’s posted a .381 wOBA and .227 ISO against traditional pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s also made excellent contact over his past 10 games, outperforming his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate. He’s a strong value at $3,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Red Sox SP Chris Sale (41)
Photo credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
