NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Sat. 4/20): James Harden is a Lock

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features a four-game slate starting at 3 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Ben Simmons has exploded over his past two playoff games, including scoring 61.3 FanDuel points in his last contest. He benefitted from the absence of Joel Embiid, who has been ruled out again today. Simmons has averaged 35.6 minutes in 14 games without Embiid since the acquisition of Tobias Harris on Feb. 8, and he’s seen a usage bump of +2.4% in those contests. He should be an extremely popular target on today’s slate.

Value

The Nets have dropped each of the past two games after winning game 1 of their series vs. the 76ers, and head coach Kenny Atkinson has already promised changes to his rotation for today’s contest. One of those changes could be more minutes for Spencer Dinwiddie.

He’s played well in this series, averaging 17.3 points per game, but his fantasy value has been limited by a lack of minutes in his last two contests. He’s currently projected for 32.4 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season. That combination makes him a really attractive option at just $4,700.

Fast Break

Ricky Rubio has scored at least 31.25 DraftKings points in each of his first two postseason games, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

The Pistons have been unable to keep games competitive with the Bucks so far this postseason, but perhaps that will change with the series moving to Detroit. Reggie Jackson has still managed to provide value despite playing limited minutes in blowouts, posting a positive Plus/Minus in FanDuel in each of his first two games. He has upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 70%.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Jazz did a decent job slowing down James Harden early in the regular season, but he’s absolutely torched them recently. He’s scored at least 58.0 DraftKings points in each of their past four meetings, averaging a ridiculous 71.2 DraftKings points per game. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. There’s really no need to overthink this one.

Value

Caris LeVert is another member of the Nets who could see a few additional minutes in today’s contest. He’s coming off a big performance in his last outing, scoring 44.25 DraftKings points in just 27.7 minutes, and he’s averaged a stout 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He could do a lot of damage if given the opportunity to play closer to 32 minutes on today’s slate.

Fast Break

Wayne Ellington is an interesting option on FanDuel if you’re looking for a true punt play. He’s priced at just $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he’s coming off more than 35 minutes in his last contest. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and price tags have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.62 (per the Trends tool).

Gary Harris has been a strong option to start the playoffs, scoring at least 29.3 FanDuel points in each of his first three games. He’s back to playing big minutes for the Denver Nuggets, but he remains very reasonably priced at just $5,600.

Small Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only player on today’s slate who can match Harden in terms of upside. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has scored at least 50.5 DraftKings points in each of his first two postseason contests.

Unfortunately, the fact that the Bucks have destroyed the Pistons over their first two games has limited his value. He’s averaged just 26.7 minutes in those contests, and its impossible for anyone to hit their ceiling in such limited playing time.

Maybe the Pistons can keep today’s contest a little closer since they’re playing at home, but the Bucks are still 9-point favorites. Giannis still has ridiculous upside if he plays extended minutes, but we may have to wait until next round to see it.

Value

JJ Redick is coming off 26 points in his last game but somehow only managed to score 28.0 FanDuel points. His peripheral statistics have been way down during the postseason — he’s logged one total rebound and four total assists over three games — which ultimately caps his upside. Still, he’s priced fairly across the industry and should see a few additional shot attempts with Embiid out of the lineup.

Fast Break

Pat Connaughton has become an important part of Bucks’ rotation over the second half of the season. He’s logged at least 28.3 minutes in each of their first two playoff games, and he scored 42.75 DraftKings points in his last contest. His role should remain safe regardless of the game situation, and he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s underpriced at $4,500 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.

DeMar DeRozan has small forward eligibility on DraftKings, which increases his appeal on today’s slate. He’s been an excellent value to start the postseason, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +6.81 in each of his first three games, and his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Power Forward

Stud

Tobias Harris struggled through his first two postseason games but exploded for 52.7 FanDuel points in his last contest. It’s no coincidence that game came with Embiid out of the lineup: Harris has seen a usage bump of +2.0% in games without Embiid this season, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.4 on DraftKings. He’s the top option at the power forward position on today’s slate, and he’s particularly appealing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%.

Value

The power forward position is easily the weakest on today’s slate. Paying up for Harris should be the default strategy, but Mike Scott makes some sense if you’re looking to save some cap dollars. He hasn’t been particularly effective over the past month, averaging just 0.62 DraftKings points per minute, but he is projected for 26.3 minutes on today’s slate. He’s priced just $500 above the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Fast Break

LaMarcus Aldridge is slightly more expensive than Harris on FanDuel, but he does provide more upside. He’s averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s due for some shooting regression after making just 39.3% of his shots through his first three postseason contests.

Derrick Favors does not really fit in this series vs. the Rockets, and he’s averaged just 23.1 minutes over his first two games. That said, he’s still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games on DraftKings, including scoring 38.0 DraftKings points in his last game. He’s one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Center

Stud

If you’re buying a Pistons’ bounce back today, Andre Drummond should be on your radar. He’s been effective in this series, but he was limited to just 26.2 minutes in the first game. He leads all players on DraftKings with 15 Pro Trends, and his matchup vs. the Bucks results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.17.

Value

Boban Marjanovic and Greg Monroe are expected to split time in place of Embiid, and both guys are very appealing options. Marjanovic has averaged 1.42 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, while Monroe has averaged 1.40.

It’s very possible to play both together on DraftKings – where each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 92% — but you’ll have to choose between them on FanDuel. Boban’s body of work over the full season makes him the safer choice, but he’s slightly more expensive and will likely command higher ownership.

Fast Break

If you’re looking for a contrarian stud option on today’s slate, Nikola Jokic is your guy. He’s displayed a huge ceiling at times this season, but almost no one is going to roster him with guys like Harden and Giannis also available.

The Nuggets need to win tonight’s game to avoid falling into a 3-1 series deficit, so he should be motivated to try to put up a big performance.

News Updates

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.