The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
After the Masters wraps up, RBC Heritage usually has a weaker field, but this year is a different story with some nice plays in various ranges.
Let’s get right to it.
The Course
As always, I backtested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at Harbour Town. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 47.86 DraftKings points and a -0.76 Plus/Minus with a 49.4% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively relative to the baseline:
- Long-Term Driving Accuracy: +4.26
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +3.83
- Recent Driving Accuracy: +2.82
- Long-Term Birdies: +2.77
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +2.73
- Long-Term Bogeys: +2.56
- Recent Scrambling: +2.36
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +1.89
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +1.77
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +1.10
- Long-Term Scrambling: +1.02
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +1.02
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +0.77
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +0.68
Harbour Town is one of the shortest tracks on tour, checking in as a par-71 and only 7,099 yards. Given its length, long hitters will have their biggest advantage stripped away from them, especially since only 13% of approach shots are from 200 yards or longer, per Fantasy National.
With only three par 5s, more of an emphasis should be placed on par-4 and par-3 scoring, and that shows up in the backtesting with each of those metrics backtesting higher. Harbour Town has some of the smallest greens on tour, so greens in regulation and approach games will also be crucial.
Given the small greens, it won’t hurt to put some weight into scrambling and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
Key metrics to focus on: Driving accuracy, birdie or better scoring, par-3 and par-4 scoring, scrambling rates, greens in regulation, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
Best DFS Plays for RBC Heritage
$10,000 and Above (DraftKings Pricing)
You can make a strong case for any of the top-priced options this week. Dustin Johnson ($11,600 DraftKings; $12,400 FanDuel) played this event last year for the first time since 2009, and finished 16th. His distance will be neutralized here, but he fits all the metrics we are looking at. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach, birdies per tournament and LT Adj Rd score.
He also has top-two marks in adjusted strokes on par 3s and par 4s. Harbour Town can also get really windy, and DJ is a phenomenal player in the wind, averaging 2.23 Total Strokes Grained in extremely windy conditions.
Matt Kuchar ($10,000 DraftKings; $11,500 FanDuel) is a perfect fit on a short track like this. Over the past 75 weeks, he’s hit 66% of fairways and his -1.1 adjusted strokes on par 4s trails only DJ in this range. Additionally, over his past 50 rounds, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Approach, which — you guessed it — trails only DJ.
$9,900-$9,000
If you’re not worried about any sort of Masters hangover, Patrick Cantlay ($9,700 DraftKings; $10,900 FanDuel) has the fourth-best LT Adj Rd Score in the field and has hit 70% of GIR over the same tie frame. He also fairs well on par 4s with his -1.2 adjusted strokes, which is a top-four mark in the field.
Webb Simpson ($9,300 DraftKings; $10,800 FanDuel) is second in the field with 0.8 eagles per tournament. He’s a solid fit for the course, averaging -1.8 adjusted strokes on par 4s and his 63.3% scrambling rate is the fifth-best mark. So, it’s no surprise that he ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over his past 50 rounds.
Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Webb Simpson
Simpson has historically played well here, making the cut every year since 2011.
Tommy Fleetwood’s ($9,200 DraftKings; $11,300 FanDuel) 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score is the second-best mark in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 10 golfer, so he’s likely underpriced for his skillset. He’s hit 71.8% of GIR and 65% of fairways over the past weeks, not to mention he has plenty of upside with his 16.4 birdies and 0.7 eagles per tournament.
Kevin Kisner ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,400 FanDuel) has a pretty balanced game, ranking 14th in Total Strokes Gained over his past 24 rounds. Further, Harbour Town has five par 4s that are between 400 and 450 yards, and he ranks second in par-4 efficiency on par 4s from that distance, per Fantasy National.
$8,900-$8,000
Charles Howell III ($8,700 DraftKings; $10,100 FanDuel) has hit 70.5% of GIR over the past 75 weeks, and his -1.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s is the fourth-best mark. While he ranks 55th in Strokes Gained: Approach in 2019, he’s been solid everywhere else, ranking fourth in Total Strokes Gained.
At the very least, Howell is an excellent cut-maker as he’s missed just 11% of cuts over the past 75 weeks.
Ian Poulter’s ($8,600 DraftKings; $10,200 FanDuel) 15.3 birdies per tournament is among the highest marks in this price range. He’s been excellent in 2019 given he has yet to miss the cut. Poulter has secured seven top-23 finishes in his nine events this year. He should fit well into balanced builds this week. Overall, Poulter has a top-10 LT Adj Rd Score, but he’s priced as the No. 16 golfer.
Sung-jae Im ($8,400 DraftKings; $10,00 FanDuel) has four top-20 and three top-seven finishes over his past five tournaments. This course suits him well as he’s hit 69.9% of GIR and 67.6% of fairways over the past 75 weeks. His approach game has also been great, ranking 18th in Strokes Gained: Approach. Overall, Im has a balanced game, ranking seventh in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Byeong-Hun An ($8,200 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) has been excellent over his past 50 rounds. He ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach and first in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. The downfall of his game is that he ranks 128th in Strokes Gained: Putting during that time frame. But, if his putter gets hot, he could contend here given he ranks second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ryan Moore
Ryan Moore ($8,100 DraftKings; $9,200 FanDuel) should be a decent fit here: His 72.6% of fairways hit over the past 75 weeks is the second-best mark in the field, which should leave him with good looks at the green. Moore ranks 10th and 15th in proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards out, which is where 49% of approach have historically come on this course, per Fantasy National. His price is relatively cheap for someone who ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds.
$7,900-$7,000
Lucas Glover ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) has finally seen his price come down after being priced $9,000 or higher over his past two tournaments. He’s found 64.4% of fairways over the past 75 weeks, along with 68.2% of GIR. Glover has been as steady as it comes this year, missing just two cuts and having six top-14 finishes to his name. Unsurprisingly, he ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach and ninth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2019.
Russell Knox ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,500 FanDuel) is another golfer in this tier who can hit GIR (69.7% over the past 75 weeks) and fairways (65.5%). He hasn’t missed a cut all year and has just been solid everywhere in 2019 (except for putting), ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 14th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,400 DraftKings; $9,400 FanDuel) has done very little this season. If you want to look on the positives, he’s missed just one cut, but otherwise, he’s finished 22nd or worse in every tournament.
That said, he’s an accurate player, hitting 69.9% of fairways and 68.8% of GIR. Additionally, in 2019, he ranks 15th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s not an awful value play considering he boasts the 10th best LT Adj Rd Score and his 15.1 birdies per tournament is the seventh-best mark, but he’s priced as the No. 35 golfer.
$6,900 and Below
As of writing, nobody is standing out in this range. I might update later in the week if anything else catches my eye.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National.
Pictured above: Sung-jae Im
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
