The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel will have a 15-day all-game slate and an early slate — DraftKings featuring seven games and FanDuel featuring four — starting at 1:05 p.m. ET. And each site will have a seven-game main slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Blake Snell (L) $12,000 TB @ TOR
- Justin Verlander (R) $10,500 HOU @ SEA
Snell is available on the all-day slates or on DraftKings’ early slate. He’s in the best spot among all pitchers on Saturday, set to take on a projected Blue Jays lineup that has a high 26.9% strikeout rate and a mediocre .305 wOBA.
Overall, Snell should make for a solid floor and ceiling play with his 8.9 K Prediction against a team that could struggle to generate runs. The Blue Jays rank 24th in wRC+ against lefties this season and have an implied run total of just 3.4 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +4.25 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 62% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Saturday’s main slate is headlined by Verlander. After him, there’s a steep drop-off in price and projections for the next tier of pitchers. The issue with the main slate is that there are concerns with just about every pitcher.
Verlander will take on a projected Mariners lineup that doesn’t strike out often (21.9% strikeout rate) and has hit righties well over the past year with their .336 wOBA. The Mariners also rank first in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, and Verlander has a 4.09 xFIP so far — more than a run higher than his 2018 marks. He’s also surrendered a lot of hard contact over his past two starts, allowing a 93-mph exit velocity and 57% hard-hit rate.
Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Verlander
That said, Verlander is the only pitcher on the main slate throwing against a team with an implied run total under 4.5 runs (3.4) as of writing. and the Astros are sizable favorites (-193 moneyline). Despite the issues with Verlander to begin the year, he’s the best option given the uncertainty with the other pitchers after him.
Values
There aren’t many values to chose from, but Rick Porcello has a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel’s early slate. Porcello has been awful to begin the year, but the matchup against the Orioles is the best one he’s had this season. Their projected lineup has a high 26.4% strikeout rate and poor .277 wOBA over the past year against righties, and they rank 23rd in wRC+ this season against right-handed pitchers this season.
The Orioles are implied for 4.1 runs, but that’s the second-lowest implied run total on the early slate as of writing. Overall, Porcello’s 6.0 K Prediction is tied for the highest mark in the early games, and maybe if he can pitch long enough into the game, he could at least get points for a win since the Red Sox are massive -234 moneyline favorites.
On the main slate, there aren’t any good value options, just different degrees of bad.
Sean Newcomb and the Braves are the second-largest favorite with their -131 moneyline, but that’s not exactly a vote of confidence since the Mets are still implied for 4.5 runs. Newcomb’s 6.6 K Prediction is the second-highest mark on the main slate against a projected Mets lineup that has a 24.2% strikeout out. But the Mets also hit lefties fairly well, sporting a .355 wOBA to go with a sixth ranking in wRC+ against them this season.
With a median projection of 31.9, it’s the second-highest mark on the main slate, but still around 15 points lower than Verlander.
Fastballs
- Michael Pineda: He’s been solid this season, pitching to a 3.25 xFIP. He’s in a good spot as the Tigers are implied for 3.4 runs and have a 25.2% strikeout rate against righties. They also rank 27th in wRC+ against them this year, but there is some risk in rostering him since he hasn’t been pitching deep into games following his Tommy John surgery.
- Zach Eflin: He’s been solid this season, averaging a +16.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his first two starts. Up next is a projected Marlins lineup with a 28.5% strikeout rate and .286 wOBA over the past year.
- Madison Bumgarner: He has a great matchup at home (93 Park Factor) against a projected Rockies lineup with an early-slate high (on DraftKings) 30.6% strikeout rate and weak .253 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past year.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man early-slate DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 2. Mookie Betts (R)
- 3. Mitch Moreland (L)
- 4. J.D. Martinez (R)
Total salary: $20,100
The Red Sox will likely be a popular stack with their 6.5 implied run total that has already moved up 0.3 runs since the lines were posted. It’s a prime matchup against the right-handed Andrew Cashner, who doesn’t strike batters out (5.38 K/9) and has a high 1.65 WHIP, along with a 1.43 HR/9.
Martinez has dominated right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of an elite .442 wOBA and .309 isolated power (ISO). He’s also in amazing form with his 259-foot recent batted-ball distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate, all of which exceed his 12-month/15-day differential.
Moreland has been on fire of late, averaging a +2.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. He’s also a righty-smasher with a .235 ISO. His recent form is comparable to Martinez with his 253-foot average batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate.
The top stack in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel belongs to the Texas Rangers.
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Rougned Odor (L)
- 4. Nomar Mazara (L)
- 6. Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
Total salary: $12,300
The Rangers check in as the top stack on FanDuel’s main slate for the second day in a row. It’s likely warranted against Marco Estrada, who is pitching to an abysmal 7.34 xFIP this season — almost three runs higher than his ERA.
Odor was a late scratch last night with a sore right knee so his status will be worth monitoring tonight. If he’s not in the lineup, you could slide in Joey Gallo as a replacement. Gallo and Choo both possess top-four projections among outfielders on the main slate.
Other Batters
Brandon Lowe is intriguing on DraftKings with his 83% Bargain Rating. He’s been playing well of late, averaging a +4.42 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 60% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games. He’s also hit right-handed pitching well over the past 12 months, sporting a .357 wOBA and .244 ISO against them. Lowe is generating an abundance of hard contact over the past 15 days with his 93-mph exit velocity and 57% hard-hit rate.
The Cardinals are worth a strong look since their implied run total has moved from 5.1 to 5.6 since their opening line.
Credit: Russell Lansford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Carpenter
Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt have crushed righties over the past year, boasting wOBA at .390 and higher, along with ISOs above .254. Carpenter’s box score hasn’t popped of late, but he has a +59 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) suggesting progression could be on the way.
If you’re in need of salary relief, Yasiel Puig has an 88% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is projected to hit from the No. 3 spot in the order. The Reds own an exceptional 5.1 implied run total and Puig will be on the positive side of his splits, posting a .377 wOBA and .261 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: J.D. Martinez and Mitch Moreland
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
