The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
There is a nice 12-game main slate that DraftKings and FanDuel will roll out tonight, starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Note: There is projected rain in the forecast at the time of writing for the Pirates-Nationals and White Sox-Yankees games. Be sure to monitor the status of these games leading up to lock.
Studs
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,500 CLE @ KC
- Patrick Corbin (R) $10,000 WSH vs. PIT
Carrasco checks in as the most expensive pitcher on an excellent 12-game main slate. The matchup doesn’t quite stand out since the projected Royals lineup has a middling 23.2% strikeout rate and a high .341 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Carrasco allowed six earned runs while striking out just six batters in his first start of the season, but he rebounded in his second start with 12 strikeouts and two earned runs. Additionally, his 3.42 xFIP is nearly 3.5 runs lower than his ERA, suggesting that he’s been a little unlucky to begin the year.
The only concern is that he’s allowed a generous amount of hard contact over those starts with an averaged batted-ball distance of 263 feet, exit velocity of 98 mph and hard-hit rate of 70%.
Overall, it’s an appealing spot given his 9.0 K Prediction against a team with the lowest implied run total (3.4) on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +3.71 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 62.2% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Corbin is in a favorable spot with the Nationals checking in as sizeable -171 moneyline favorites against a Pirates team implied for a meager 3.7 runs. The only knock on Corbin is that the projected Pirates lineup has a low 21.95% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year. That said, Corbin still boasts a 7.6 K Prediction, and the Pirates also own a lackluster .303 wOBA and rank just 25th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties this season.
Both Carrasco and Corbin are fine options if you’re looking to pay up at the position.
Values
Eduardo Rodriguez is off to a brutal start to the year, sporting a 12.38 ERA and 6.38 xFIP. However, his two starts both came against stellar teams in the A’s and the Mariners. Next up is an Orioles team whose projected lineup has a weak .283 wOBA. While their strikeout rate is only 23.7%, Rodriguez still has a serviceable 6.5 K Prediction.
He’s a decent alternative with a 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. The Red Sox check in as massive -278 moneyline favorites, and the Orioles are implied for a paltry 3.7 runs. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +3.30 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 61.5% Consistency Rating.
If you’re desperate and looking to load up on bats in tournaments, Drew Pomeranz costs just $6,500 on FanDuel with a 98% Bargain Rating. He’s not quite the same value on DraftKings, where he costs $8,100. There’s obviously some risk with Pomeranz with his 1.78 WHIP, so there’s no telling how long he’ll last in this game if he gets into trouble. But the projected Rockies lineup has a high 28.6% strikeout rate and low .250 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Rockies also rank 29th in wRC+ against lefties this season.
Pomeranz’s toughest task will be getting past Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado, who demolish lefties. They each possess wOBAs over .435 and ISOs over .343 over the past year against left-handed pitchers. But Pomeranz will at least have a 94 Park Factor at home, and the Giants are -129 moneyline favorites against a team with a 3.8 implied run total.
Fastballs
J.A. Happ: He hasn’t done much this season, pitching to a 5.15 xFIP and striking out just eight batters in two starts against the Orioles. He’ll look to rebound with his 7.2 K Prediction against a projected White Sox lineup with a 26.6% strikeout rate and unimposing .304 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Yankees check in as the second-largest favorite on the day with their -225 moneyline.
Jake Arrieta: He draws the most favorable matchup on the board against a projected Marlins lineup that has a 29.9% strikeout rate and .282 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past year. Arrieta doesn’t strike many batters out (6.93 K/9), so he’s mostly just a floor play.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 2. Mookie Betts (R)
- 3. Mitch Moreland (L)
- 4. J.D. Martinez (R)
Total Salary: $19,500
The Red Sox have a huge 6.4 implied run total against the righty David Hess. Per our Trends tool, targeting hitters in the top four of the order on teams with comparable implied run totals has historically been fruitful, as those hitters have averaged a +1.50 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
This Sox stack can obliterate right-handed pitchers: Betts and Martinez each have wOBAs of .427 or better. Additionally, Betts has a .292 ISO while Martinez has an elite .307 ISO against righties over the past year. Moreland and Benintendi will each be on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits.
The top stack in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel belongs to the Texas Rangers.
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Rougned Odor (L)
- 4. Nomar Mazara (L)
- 6. Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
Total Salary: $12,500
With four teams implied for over 5.0 runs, Friday could make for a fun, high-scoring slate. The Rangers are one of those four teams, with their 5.2 implied run total against Mike Fiers.
Choo boasts a solid .385 wOBA and .201 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year, and he’s in tremendous form, sporting a 251-foot average batted-ball distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate. Additionally, Choo has a +40 Recent Batted Ball Luck: He’s likely to enjoy some progression soon.
Other Batters
Luke Voit and Aaron Judge all rank near the top of our projections, as the Yankees are implied for 6.1 runs. They’ll be on the negative side of their splits, but that’s not saying much considering that Voit still has a .413 wOBA and .303 ISO against righties and Judge boasts a .383 wOBA and .244 ISO.
Brandon Nimmo has an 83% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he’s fared well against right-handed pitchers over the past year, hitting them to the tune of a .389 wOBA and .244 ISO. Nimmo is in solid form with his 226-foot average batted-ball distance and 93-mph exit velocity over the past 15 days.
Marcus Semien leads the shortstop position in our median and ceiling projections against the lefty Drew Smyly. He has a decent .341 wOBA and .198 ISO against lefties, and Smyly has struggled in his first two starts, allowing five earned runs and 10 hits. The A’s are another team implied for over 5.0 runs on Friday’s slate.
Joey Gallo didn’t pop up in the above Rangers stack, but he’s worth consideration with his .361 wOBA and .303 ISO. He’s drawing tons of hard contact over the past 15 days with his absurd 99-mph exit velocity and 68% hard-hit rate, both of which exceed his 12-month/15-day differential.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Joey Gallo
Photo credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
