The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering 10-game all-day and five-game early slates that begin at 12:10 p.m. ET, along with a five-game main slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $9,000:
- Shane Bieber (R) $9,700 CLE @ DET
- Walker Buehler (R) $9,500 LAD @ STL
- Joe Musgrove (R), $9,000 PIT @ CHC
Bieber is available either on the all-day or early slate on Thursday. He will draw his second start of the season. Bieber was efficient in his first start of the year against the Blue Jays, striking out nine batters in six innings of work. He’ll have a favorable draw again, this time against a projected Tigers lineup that has a 24.7% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. They also rank 26th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season, per FanGraphs.
Overall, Bieber’s 7.0 K Prediction is the second-highest mark on the early slate. He’s seemingly in a good spot, as the Tigers are implied for a meager 3.8 runs and the Indians are -130 moneyline favorites. He leads our median and ceiling projections among early-slate pitchers.
Buehler is off to an underwhelming start to the season, as he hasn’t struck out more than four batters in either of his two starts (although one of those starts was at Coors Field). He does have marks in his favor today: He boasts a solid 6.9 K Prediction, and the Dodgers have favorable Vegas data. The Cardinals have an implied run total of 3.7 and the Dodgers are -137 moneyline favorites at the time of writing.
However, there are some concerns. First, he’s allowing an averaged batted-ball distance of 219 feet, along with an exit velocity of 92 mph and hard-hit rate of 44% over his last two starts. Additionally, the Dodgers typically don’t let their pitchers go that deep into games, so they normally need to be efficient in their outings. He’s also sporting a high xFIP of 5.04 thus far. It might be better to proceed with caution until he shows some signs of life.
Musgrave is the most-expensive pitcher on the main slate. However, he might be hard to consider since the Pirates are +131 underdogs and Chicago is projected for 15 mph wind blowing out to left field. There is also rain in the forecast, so be sure to pay attention to the game’s status leading up to lock via our Lineups page.
Values
Sonny Gray will draw the best matchup on the board against a projected Marlins lineup that has a very high 29.4% strikeout rate and abysmal .294 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They also rank 24th in wRC+ against righties this season. It’s no surprise the Reds check in as one of the largest favorites (-164) on the early slate.
Fastballs
Jon Gray: He’ll square off against a projected Giants lineup that has a 25.9% strikeout rate and subpar .272 wOBA against righties over the past year. Overall, he has a solid 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, along with a 7.3 K Prediction against a team implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs. Gray is likely the safest option on the main slate against a Giants team that ranks dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season.
Nathan Eovaldi: The Red Sox are the largest favorite on the main slate (-178), and the Jays are implied for a paltry 3.9 runs. It’s a solid matchup, as the projected Jays lineup has a 26.8% strikeout rate and .294 wOBA against righties over the past year, along with ranking 25th in wRC+ this season. That said, Eovaldi is a risky punt option considering his 233-foot averaged batted-ball distance, 95 mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Zack Godley: He’s struggled so far this season, pitching to a 5.26 xFIP, but there aren’t many pitching options to choose from on the main slate. The projected Padres lineup has a middling 23% strikeout rate, but they also have a weak .288 wOBA and rank 21st in wRC+ against righties this season.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stack for the early slate from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics.
- 1. Robbie Grossman (S)
- 3. Stephen Piscotty (R)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Kendrys Morales (S)
Total Salary: $16,000
Oakland’s 5.3 implied run total is one of the highest marks on the early slate. The A’s exploded for 10 runs against the Orioles last night, and now they draw a matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has an absurd 2.37 HR/9 over the past year. Bundy is capable of striking out hitters (9.50 K/9), but the projected A’s lineup has a low 22.2% strikeout rate and excellent .334 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months.
Piscotty and Davis have exceptional power against right-handed pitchers with .227 and .311 ISO marks, respectively. They’re both also in excellent form, possessing exit velocities of 94 mph and hard-hit rates above 40%.
The top stack in the Bales Model for FanDuel’s main slate belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 2. Mookie Betts (R)
- 3. Mitch Moreland (L)
- 5. Xander Bogaerts R)
Total Salary: $15,800
The Red Sox could be a popular stack on the main slate with their 5.6 implied run total; that’s currently the highest mark on the slate.
Betts has demolished right-handed pitchers over the past year, sporting a .427 wOBA and .294 ISO against them. He’s also generating an abundance of hard contact right now with his 93 mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate.
Moreland has favorable numbers against righties as well, evidenced by his .339 wOBA and .225 ISO. Further, he’s smashing the baseball right now, boasting a 232-foot average batted-ball distance, 93 mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
This might be the third time already this season I’ve mentioned Mallex Smith in this writeup. Let’s keep the good times rolling. Smith is projected to bat leadoff for a team with a 5.3 implied run total. Historically, leadoff hitters with comparable Vegas data have averaged a +1.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool). Smith also gives you the extra benefit of having a base-stealer on your team. He’s had four just in the month of April.
Joc Pederson is in an interesting spot against Michael Wacha, as he’s demolished right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .390 wOBA and .309 ISO. He’s also in excellent form with his 236-foot average batted-ball distance, 98 mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate.
Eduardo Escobar has a 71% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, making him a nice salary-saving option. The switch-hitting Escobar boasts a .335 wOBA and .232 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year and presently has the second-highest median projection among third basemen in our models
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Kendrys Morales and Robbie Grossman
Photo credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
