The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel will be offering an 11-game main slate that begins at 1:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,900, WSH @ NYM
- Mike Clevinger (R) $10,800, CLE @ TOR
Scherzer checks in as the most expensive pitcher on the slate, and deservedly so with what he brings to the table each time he steps on the mound. His 8.2 K Prediction is one of the top marks on the main slate, even though the projected Mets lineup has a strikeout rate on the lower end (22.9%).
Their projected lineup does have a high .333 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), but they rank just 19th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season, and they’re implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs. Scherzer had a solid batted-ball profile in his past two starts, allowing an 88-mph exit velocity and 23% hard-hit rate.
Clevinger has been lights out through his first two starts of the season, averaging a +32.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus. On deck is a projected Blue Jays lineup that has a 25.6% strikeout rate and weak .299 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Moreover, The Indians are -157 moneyline favorites at the time of writing and the Jays are implied for a paltry 3.4 runs.
Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions (7.7) and Vegas data have averaged a +5.53 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 62% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). Given the $1,100 savings and the more favorable matchup, I’d lean Clevinger over Scherzer. On DraftKings, you could play both provided you can find cheap enough bats.
Update (11:30 a.m. ET): Scherzer’s floor and ceiling is impossible to ignore, just lock him in for cash games. Clevinger is an excellent tournament pivot and still a viable cash-game option if you need the salary, however.
Values
Brad Peacock carries a 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel for his matchup against the Athletics. He was excellent in the Astros’ bullpen last season, sporting a 2.82 xFIP. However, there is some risk to Peacock since the projected Athletics lineup has the second-highest wOBA (.336) on the day. They also have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate among teams on Sunday.
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Astros relief pitcher Brad Peacock (41).
That said, he’s still a solid value on FanDuel and viable SP2 candidate on DraftKings since the Astros are sitting as -172 moneyline favorites, and the A’s have an unimposing 3.9 implied run total.
Zach Eflin is in a favorable spot against a projected Twins lineup that has a 27% strikeout rate and .263 wOBA against righties over the past year. Eflin sported a serviceable 4.02 xFIP in 2018, and he off to a nice start this season after he fanned nine batters against the Nationals in his last start.
Domingo German is an intriguing option against the Orioles as their projected lineup has a 26.4% strikeout rate, and he has a 7.2 K Prediction. The matchup doesn’t get much better against a team with a .270 wOBA.
Fastballs
Sean Newcomb: His 5.0 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the matchup is excellent against a projected Marlins lineup that has a 27.5% strikeout rate and .277 wOBA against lefties over the past year. The Marlins carry a meager 3.6 implied run total and the Braves check in as -156 moneyline favorites.
Chris Archer: He’s an interesting tournament play as he has some strikeout upside to him, but he also carries blowup potential, although that could be minimal considering the Reds rank dead last in wRC+ against righties this season.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Houston Astros.
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Alex Bregman (R)
- 4. Michael Brantley (L)
Total Salary: $17,700
The Astros are in a good spot against the righty Mike Fiers. Even though he hasn’t given up much run production (yet), he’s continuing his trend of being lucky like last season, where his xFIP was nearly a full run higher than his ERA. Except right now, it’s 2.68 runs higher. Maybe the regression will finally hit against an Astros team that is implied for 5.2 runs.
Bregman has done well against righties over the past year, sporting a .398 wOBA and .250 ISO. Additionally, Brantley will be on the positive side of his splits as he possesses a .367 wOBA and .177 ISO against them over the same time frame.
The top stack for FanDuel’s from the Bales Player Model belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.
- 1. Matt Carpenter (L)
- 2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- 3. Paul DeJong (R)
- 5. Yadier Molina R)
Total Salary: $14,900
The Cardinals will square off against the lefty Matthew Strahm, who got throttled in his last start, allowing five earned runs and eight hits in 2.2 innings. As a result, he has a horrid batted-ball profile as he allowed a 283-foot average batted-ball distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate.
This is good news for Goldschmidt, who has a .406 wOBA and .265 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. He also quite literally might be tearing the cover off the ball since he has an absurd 288-foot average batted-ball distance, 100-mph exit velocity and 68% hard-hit rate.
DeJong is another batter from this stack who is in good batted-ball form, sporting a 271-foot average batted-ball distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate.
Other Batters
It might not be a bad idea to have some exposure to the Yankees if you have the extra salary considering they have a 5.3 implied run total against the righty David Hess. Historically, hitters who are hitting in the top five of the order in games with comparable implied run totals have averaged a +1.56 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Luke Voit is seemingly in a good spot as he’s expected to hit in the No. 3 spot, and over the past 12 months he’s sporting a .424 wOBA and .306 ISO against righties. Hess also has a reasonably high 46% fly-ball rate over the past year, which could bode well for Voit’s 43% fly-ball rate over the past 15 days.
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Yankees designated hitter Luke Voit (45).
Mike Moustakas has a decent 54% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and 56% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’s generated an abundance of hard contact of late, evidenced by his 95-mph exit velocity and 59% hard-hit rate. Moustakas will also be on the positive side of his splits, hitting righties to the tune of a .341 wOBA and .235 ISO.
Teammate Travis Shaw is in a similar boat to Moustakas, boasting a .373 wOBA and .276 ISO to go along with his 98-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate.
If you’re looking for salary relief, I’ll keep riding the Mallex Smith train. He didn’t swipe any bags on Saturday, but he got walked twice and did score a run. He’s been solid to start the season, averaging a +3.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus wit a 50% Consistency Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Mike Clevinger
Photo credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
