The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering a 15-game all-day slate and six-game early slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET, along with a six-game main slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there is just one pitcher who costs more than $10,000:
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,000, CLE vs. TOR
Carrasco is just available on the all-day slate for Saturday, and he looks like the best option of all the choices. He’ll take on a projected Blue Jays lineup that has a high 25.6% strikeout rate and weak .298 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Consequently, he possesses an excellent 8.2 K Prediction.
The Indians also check in as -177 moneyline favorites at the time of writing, and the Jays are implied for a meager 3.2 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Prediction and Vegas data have averaged a +6.45 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 62.7% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Values
Jake Arrieta carries a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel for the early slate, but he won’t do much for strikeout upside with his 4.8 K Prediction. However, the projected Twins lineup does have a 24.1% strikeout rate and horrid .262 wOBA. The Phillies are currently -146 moneyline favorites and the Twins are implied for an underwhelming 3.7 runs. At the very least, Arrieta is a solid floor play as he presently leads the early slate with his floor projection in our Models.
J.A. Happ will get to square off against the Orioles for his second start of the season. Happ faced them on March 31, and they lit him for four earned runs in four innings. He’ll look to rebound against a projected Orioles lineup that has a high 26.2% strikeout rate and lackluster .267 wOBA against lefties over the past year. It didn’t work out last time, but he’s in a strong spot as the Yankees are massive -172 moneyline favorites and Baltimore is implied for a paltry 3.5 runs.
Fastballs
Patrick Corbin: He got knocked around a bit in his first start against the Mets, but Corbin did have an outstanding 30.8% strikeout rate last season with a 2.61 xFIP. The main drawback with the matchup against the Mets (again) is their projected lineup’s strikeout rate is on the lower end at 20.4%. Corbin still possesses an 8.4 K Prediction.
Kyle Wright: There is some risk in rostering Wright, but the Braves are -163 moneyline favorites and the Marlins are implied for just 3.8 runs. The matchup doesn’t get much better as their projected lineup possesses a high 30.7% strikeout rate and mediocre .283 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months.
Walker Buehler: He should be reserved for tournaments as the Dodgers will be in Coors Field. But Buehler has some upside: He’s sporting a decent 7.4 K Prediction against a team whose projected lineup has a 28.4% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Additionally, he’s typically a ground-ball pitcher, evidenced by his 50% ground-ball rate in 2018. Pitchers with comparable ground-ball rates at Coors have averaged a +1.43 FanDuel Plus/Minus. All that said, I wouldn’t invest too much equity in Buehler given how fast Coors can turn a pitcher’s stat line into a disaster.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack for the early slate from the Player Models when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
- 1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 4. Rhys Hoskins (R)
Total Salary: $18,900
The Phillies will square off against the righty Michael Pineda, but he lasted just four innings in his first start of the season following his Tommy John surgery. So, it’s possible they face him for a brief period of time. Overall, the early slate doesn’t have a ton of teams with a high implied run total. The Tigers lead the way at 4.6 and the Phillies check in at 4.4, tied for the second-highest mark with the Mariners at the time of writing.
This could be a potent stack, particularly from Harper and Hoskins, who both smash right-handed pitchers. Over the past 12 months, Harper owns an elite .393 wOBA and .256 isolated power (ISO), while Hoskins checks in with a .366 wOBA and .275 ISO.
The top stack for FanDuel’s main slate when generated by projected points belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 6. Max Muncy (L)
Total Salary: $18,100
The Dodgers make for an expensive stack, but they’re easy to fit in with the lack of expensive pitching options on the main slate. They’ll take on the righty Jon Gray, who has actually been rather effective throughout his career at Coors Field. Since 2015, Gray owns a 24.5% strikeout rate and 3.29 xFIP at home. Still, the Dodgers do have a slate-high 5.6 implied run total at the time of writing.
Pederson is projected to hit leadoff, and he’s demolished right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .394 wOBA and .313 ISO. Bellinger is in the boat, sporting a .394 wOBA and.276 ISO.
Other Batters
Mallex Smith is projected to hit leadoff for the Mariners. He’s hit righties fairly well over the past year with a .338 wOBA. More importantly, he provides excellent value with his legs as he’s averaged 0.252 stolen bases per game since 2016, the third-highest mark among all hitters on the early slate. Stolen bases provided plenty of value and hitters with comparable stolen base metrics who are hitting from the top spot in the order have historically averaged a +1.13 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 50.6% Consistency Rating.
Another intriguing base-stealer on the early slate is Whit Merrifield, who has smoked righties over the past year with his elite .403 wOBA. Merrifield’s 0.286 stolen bases per game, trails only teammate Raul Mondesi. Merrifield has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he leads second basemen in median projections, along with having a top-four projection among outfielders.
If you’re looking to pivot away from some of the other Coors Field bats, Alex Bregman possesses a .393 wOBA and .249 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and the Astros’ 4.9 implied run total is the second-highest total on the slate, trailing only the Dodgers. Bregman leads all third basemen in our median and ceiling projections.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: J.A. Happ
Photo credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
