The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering a three-game early starting at 4:10 p.m. ET, along with an eight-game main slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are five pitchers who cost more than $8,500:
- Jack Flaherty (R) $9,500, STL vs. SD
- Nick Pivetta (R) $9,100, PHI vs. MN
- Shane Bieber (R) $8,900 CLE vs. TOR
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $8,800 TB @ SF
- Colin McHugh (R) $8,600 HOU vs. OAK
Flaherty checks in as the top-priced pitching option on the day, but he’s only available on the early slate. He got off to a rough start in his first start of the season, allowing four earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Brewers. But he was solid last season, sporting a 3.58 xFIP. So this could be a spot for him to rebound.
He has a reasonable 7.5 K Prediction against a projected Padres lineup that has a middle of the road 22.7% strikeout rate. However, they have a weak .281 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and rank 24th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers this season.
Flaherty is probably one of the safer options on the early slate as the Cardinals are the largest favorite and facing the team with the lowest implied run total (3.3).
Pivetta is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel for Friday’s main slate. The projected lineup for the Twins has a 24% strikeout rate against righties over the past year, along with a slate-low .262 wOBA. He’ll also have pitcher-friendly weather in Philly as it’s expected to be around 47 degrees with wind blowing in from right to left. However, there is projected light rain as of writing, so be sure to monitor the game up until lock.
Pivetta’s 6.4 K Prediction and opponent implied run total (3.7) makes him a solid tournament pivot on FanDuel, but he’s better value on DraftKings where he has an 81% Bargain Rating.
Bieber is an intriguing option as the Blue Jays are implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs, while the Indians check in as -145 moneyline favorites. The projected Jays lineup has a high 25.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and they rank just 22nd in wRC+ against righties this season.
Bieber had a solid 2018 campaign in which he posted a 24.3% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate and 3.30 xFIP. He pitched two innings of relief on the March 31, so this will be his first start of the season.
Glasnow joins Flaherty on the early slate: Glasnow has a 10.71 K/9 over the past 12 months and has a K Prediction of 7.0 against the Giants. Their projected lineup has the lowest strikeout rate on the early slate, but the Giants also have the lowest wOBA and rank 23rd in wRC+ against righties this season.
The Pirates are slight -116 moneyline favorites and the Giants are implied for a meager 3.4 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +2.59 FanDuel Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
There are a bunch of startable options on the main slate, but no real locks.
McHugh is intriguing given he has struck out nine batters through just five innings in his first start of the season. The main concern with this matchup would be that the A’s projected lineup has middle of the road 23% strikeout rate and a high .335 wOBA against righties over the past year. But, with limited options in the top-tier pitchers tonight, McHugh is worth a strong look — especially since he leads the slate with an 8.9 K Prediction against an A’s team implied for 3.6 runs. The Astros also check in as the largest favorite on the main slate.
Values
Kevin Gausman has a decent 6.3 K Prediction, but he gets one of the best matchups on the board against a projected Marlins lineup with a 28.8% strikeout rate and .297 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. They also rank 21st in wRC+ against them this season.
Fastballs
- Brandon Woodruff: He’s an interesting tournament option who was excellent in his small sample last season, posting a 26.7% strikeout rate and 3.36 xFIP. The Cubs do rank second in wRC+ against righties this season, but the Brewers check in as slight -128 moneyline favorites.
- Joe Musgrove: His strikeout potential could be limited given the projected Reds lineup has a low 15.6% strikeout rate, but he could be worth a flier as an SP2 option on DraftKings. The Reds rank 29th in wRC+ against righties this season, and Musgrove was decent in 2018 with his 20.6% strikeout rate and 3.92 xFIP.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack for the early slate from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- 1. Enrique Hernandez (R)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 5. A.J. Pollock (R)
Total Salary: $19,200
It’s not surprising to see the Dodgers as the top-rated stack since the early slate consists of just three games. The Dodgers are at Coors Field, resulting in a slate-high 5.6 implied run total against lefty Tyler Anderson.
Per our Trends tool, batters hitting in the top five of the order at Coors Field have averaged 9.77 DraftKings points per game with a +1.38 Plus/Minus and 47.3% Consistency Rating. Those numbers lead every single stadium. This is good news for Turner, who will be on the positive side of his splits, hitting lefties to the tune of a .409 wOBA and .220 isolated power (ISO) over the past year.
The top FanDuel stack on the main slate from the Bales Player Model belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.
- 1. Kole Calhoun (L)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 4. Andrelton Simmons (R)
- 5. Albert Pujols (R)
Total Salary: $12,700
The Angels will take on Lance Lynn, who got throttled in his first start of the season, allowing 10 hits and seven earned runs in 5.2 innings. He’s not in the best form either as he possesses a 221-foot average batted-ball distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate.
Trout busted out on Thursday night, going 2-3 with a home run. He’ll continue to be on the positive side of his batting splits, sporting a .483 wOBA and .342 ISO against righties over the past year. He’s drawn a lot of hard contact over his past seven games with his 47% hard-hit rate.
Calhoun is also in good form, posting 232-foot average batted-ball distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate. This four-man stack is on the cheaper side, which will allow you sprinkle in some of the more expensive batters on the slate.
With the exception of Trout, everyone in this stack has a 63% Bargain Rating or higher.
Other Batters
Ryan Braun is a decent value on FanDuel with his 63% Bargain Rating. He owns a .369 wOBA and .264 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months, and his +32 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests he could be headed for some progression. Overall, Braun has generated an abundance of hard contact over his past six games with his 50% hard-hit rate.
If you don’t want to pay up at third base, Eduarda Escobar could be a potential salary relief option. He has a solid .331 wOBA and .232 ISO against righties over the past year, and his $2,700 price tag on FanDuel gives him an 88% Bargain Rating.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention Joey Gallo and his absurd 98-mph exit velocity and 60% hard-hit rate this season. It’s a sublime matchup against Felix Pena, who got wrecked in his first start, allowing four earned runs in 3.2 innings pitched. His poor outing resulted in a 265-foot averaged batted-ball distance and 97-mph exit velocity — a perfect combination for the hard-hitting Gallo.
With the lack of expensive pitching options, it won’t be hard to fit in some of the expensive hitting options. As of writing, Christian Yelich and Mookie Betts lead our ceiling projections among all hitters.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout
Photo credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports
