The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering eight-game all-day slates and four-game early slates starting at 1 p.m. ET.
In addition, DraftKings will have a four-game main slate starting at 6:10 p.m. ET, while FanDuel will have a three-game main slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,400, CLE vs. TOR
- James Paxton (L) $10,600, NYY @ BAL
- Noah Syndergaard (R) $10,000 vs. WSH
Bauer dominated in his first outing of the season, going seven innings and striking nine batters against the Twins. Next up is a projected Blue Jays lineup with a 25.7% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Bauer checks in with a favorable 8.4 K Prediction against a Jays team implied for a meager 3.0 runs.
Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +4.63 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 62.3% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). Bauer presently leads the all-day slate with his median and ceiling projections in our Models.
Paxton had a disappointing outing against the Orioles in his first start of the season, striking out just five batters over 5.2 innings in a 5-3 loss. Oddsmakers don’t seem too concerned: The Yankees are -196 moneyline favorites and the Orioles are implied for only 3.3 runs.
Overall, Paxton’s 9.0 K Prediction leads the all-day slate against a projected Orioles lineup with a 26% strikeout rate and abysmal .270 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against lefties over the past year. His +42 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) suggests he could be in line for progression.
Syndergaard got knocked in his first start against the Nationals this year, allowing four earned and seven hits, although he did strike out seven batters in the process. Given the other options on this slate, Syndergaard is likely better off not on your roster considering the Nationals’ projected lineup has a low 20.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, resulting in a 5.6 K Prediction.
Values
Jake Junis has a respectable 6.5 K Prediction and 65% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He’ll take on a projected Tigers lineup that has a 25% strikeout rate and mediocre .304 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. It’s a weak slate for value pitching options, but Junis does boast our second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel for the early slate.
Fastballs
Matt Harvey: He makes this column by default as the Angels are the largest favorites on the slate (-148 moneyline) at the time of writing. His 5.6 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the projected Rangers lineup has a slate-high 26.4% strikeout rate. And they are one of two teams with an implied run total of less than 4.0 at the time of writing.
Jordan Lyles: He could be a serviceable option as slight favorites against the Reds. The Pirates’ Lyles isn’t a high strikeout guy, and the projected Reds lineup has a low 18.6% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months, but he did have a decent 4.08 xFIP last season, which was slightly better than league average among starting pitchers.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack for the early slate from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 4. Xander Bogaerts (R)
Total Salary: $20,000
The Red Sox’s 4.4 implied run total trails only the Yankees’ 4.8 implied run total on the early slate. They’ll take on the lefty Brett Anderson, who has a low 5.31 SO/9.
The matchup against a lefty will put Betts on the positive side of his splits, as he possesses an elite .456 wOBA and .301 isolated power (ISO) against them over the past year. He’s off to a slow start to the season, but his +59 RBBL suggests he’s been unlucky thus far.
Martinez will be on the negative side of his splits, but he still owns a .408 wOBA and .246 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. He’s also in terrific recent batted-ball form right now, evidenced by his 262-foot average batted-ball distance, 97-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data who are hitting from similar lineup spots have averaged a +1.35 DraftKings Plus/Minus since 2015.
The top four-man FanDuel stack for the main slate when generated by projected points belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.
- 1. Kole Calhoun (L)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 3. Justin Bour (L)
- 4. Andrelton Simmons (R)
Total Salary: $13,500
The Angels own a slate-high 4.7 implied run total against right-hander Edinson Volquez. He didn’t play in 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. In 2017, he wasn’t great, sporting a 7.90 SO/9 and 4.78 xFIP.
In unsurprising news, Trout boasts the top projection among all hitters on the main slate. He owns a ridiculous .488 wOBA and .333 ISO against righties over the past year. Given the lack of expensive pitching options on the main slate, it won’t be difficult to pay up for Trout in tournaments or cash games.
Other Batters
Projected to hit from the No. 5 spot, Ryan O’Hearn could be a cheap source of power on DraftKings for the early slate. He’s sporting a .451 wOBA and .377 ISO against righties over the past year. He’s also smashed the ball of late, posting a 242-foot average batted-ball distance and 98-mph exit velocity.
With just three games on FanDuel’s main slate and all the cheap pitchers, it shouldn’t be difficult to pay up for Kris Bryant, who has a .429 wOBA and .307 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Bryant has the highest median and ceiling projection in our Models.
Teammate Javier Baez should be a popular option at shortstop, but it’s warranted with his .430 wOBA and .295 ISO. He’s also generating tons of hard contact this season with his 94-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate.
If you’re in need of salary relief, leadoff man Ender Inciarte has an 83% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’s averaging a +1.16 Plus/Minus this season. Hitters with comparable salaries and Bargain ratings have historically averaged a +1.23 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Additionally, Yu Darvish struggled in his first start this season, allowing three earned runs in 2.2 innings. He also allowed a decent amount of hard contact, evidenced by his 91-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Mike Trout
Photo credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
