I’m filling in for John today, but I’ll keep the structure the same. That means…
“Let’s do it.”
Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner, SF
Bumgarner is the clear-cut cash option at SP today regardless of slate. However, the differences in slate is important to note, as always – Bumgarner is far-and-away the best option in the main slate, but in the earlier games, Chris Sale, Danny Salazar, and Carlos Martinez are intriguing in their own rights. If you need convincing on Bum, he’s got an elite WHIP (1.036), K/9 (10.247), the Diamondbacks are projected to score only 3.0 runs, and his pitch velocity has actually been 1.2 mph faster in his first two games than last year.
Chris Sale, CWS
Sale is an elite talent with better K upside than Bumgarner, as shown by his day-high K/9 mark of 11.732. The difference between the two is that Sale gets the Angels today, who have the lowest projected strikeout rate as a team – 0.192 per at bat. He is a bit more expensive too at $11,800 on DraftKings. One thing he does have in his favor is that he’s a bigger favorite than Bum (-156 moneyline vs -134), although both are large and I don’t typically advise chasing pitcher wins, even on FanDuel.
Carlos Martinez, STL
If you’re looking for a boom-or-bust option, Martinez is your guy today. He’s facing off against the Cubs (projected to score a mediocre 3.7 runs), who can beat up on pitchers at times (projected team wOBA of .3014), but also whiff like crazy (0.2754 SO/AB). There’s risk, but there’s also reward because of Martinez’s K upside.
Pitchers to Exploit
Ian Kennedy, DET
In my opinion, the KC-DET matchup is perhaps the most intriguing one from a tournament perspective. I know, the Vegas lines aren’t that enticing – both teams are projected around 3.8 runs. However, Kennedy has shown that he’ll really give up the long ball, as his 1.633 HR/9 allowed is the worst rate today. Detroit has struggled this year, but they certainly have power guys – J.D. Martinez, Miggy, Salty, and Upton all come to mind – that can take advantage if Kennedy is off his game.
Jeremy Hellickson, PHI
Hellickson is actually decent stats-wise and even probably a bit underpriced on DraftKings at $6,500. However, he’s facing a red-hot Mets team that is just crushing the ball lately. They haven’t scored less than five runs after moving Michael Conforto to the third spot of their batting order, and the middle of that lineup has no weaknesses and includes all guys that can go yard. They scored 11 last night with six HRs like it was nothing; I’m expecting a rough day from Philly pitchers again today.
C
Brian McCann, NYY
I like both catchers in this matchup (Stephen Vogt of Oakland being the other one), but I would give the slight edge to McCann because of his superior ISO, a .217 mark against RHP. Both catchers are playing in an intriguing park, which we have pegged as an 81 Park Factor Rating for the two righties. I also think Matt Wieters of Baltimore is interesting – his hard-hit percentage of 44% is 11% up from last season. It hasn’t translated yet (as shown by his negative Distance Differential), but I think that could come.
1B
Chris Davis, BAL
Speaking of a Baltimore guy, it’s just really hard not to take Crush against a righty. His marks are otherworldly – a .416 wOBA, .377 ISO, and .639 slugging. He’s also facing off against R.A. Dickey in a batter’s park in Baltimore and his HH% is up three percent in the last 10 games. If Dickey (a knuckleballer, if you weren’t aware) leaves one hanging, Crush is going to, well, you get it.
Mitch Moreland, TEX
Moreland is one of my favorite plays at any position today. First, his stats are great against righties — .357 wOBA, .232 ISO, and .518 slugging. Second, he gets Doug Fister, who allows a ton of HRs (1.468 per nine). Third, he’s a 1B-eligible player batting behind Prince Fielder, also a 1B-eligible player. I love situations like these, as the guy latter in the batting order (Moreland will bat fifth to Prince’s third) is always lower owned because DFS players want to get a full 1-4 stack in.
2B
Scooter Gennett, MIL
I get it – Gennett has negative splits today if you look at his wOBA and ISO against left-handed pitchers. However, I think because of his situation – he’s batting second for a Milwaukee team projected to score 4.4 runs and is in a batter-friendly park – he’s probably underpriced on DraftKings at $2,600. His advanced stats like his 13% hard-hit rate increase this year is also nice. It’s actually fairly tough to find a 2B to love today – I do like Neil Walker for the Mets, who is coming off a two-HR game last night and has positive splits against righties (+.104 ISO).
3B
Matt Carpenter, STL
Carpenter has been an advanced stats darling of mine this year – his hard-hit rate of 51% is just ridiculous, especially since he was already above average before that. He has positive splits against righties, as shown by his .386 wOBA and .247 ISO. He does strikeout a little more than you would love, but I think he’s one of the safer options at 3B, especially if you’re taking advantage of DK positional quirks and taking the next guy at the next position…
SS
Manny Machado, BAL
I’m not entirely sure why Machado has SS eligibility on DraftKings – I guess it’s the same reason DeMarcus Cousins became a PF during the season (the position sucked) – but here we are. I probably don’t need a hard sell on Machado, so I’ll keep it quick. He has a .399 wOBA, .250 ISO, and .563 slugging against RHP, and again, all it takes is for Dickey to not have movement on one pitch and Machado/Crush will take advantage.
OF
Nomar Mazara, TEX
Mazara is definitely due for regression and I typically don’t like to be on the other side of that (riding the hot hand when it’s clear that it’ll eventually stop), but I’ll make an exception for a guy who is just clearly underpriced. We have a guy that is $3.2k on DK, is facing Fister who is … not good, has a .507 wOBA and .200 ISO, and is batting second for a team projected to score 4.6 runs. That’s just too hard to fade.
Yoenis Cespedes, NYM
I am obviously pretty high on the Mets right now, although that’s not exactly a #hottaek after their 11-run game last night. I’ve been pining for Conforto and these guys to revamp their batting order all year and since they have, they’ve been unstoppable as a team. Cespedes is great in any order against any pitcher (he does have a .378 wOBA and .268 ISO against RHP), but he’s especially great right now because of the guys surrounding him – they’re projected for a slate-high 4.7 runs tonight.
Corey Dickerson, TB
I really liked Dickerson yesterday, and despite the back-to-back disappointing 0-4 games, I’m doubling down because of the reason I liked him yesterday: elite advanced stats. He has a hard-hit rate of 45%, which is an eight-percent increase after playing at Coors all of last season (which probably inflates his wOBA and ISO numbers). He’ll be low owned because people believe he’s a product of Coors, but I’m choosing to believe that the advanced stats we’re seeing from Tampa Corey will eventually produce fantasy points.
Weather Watch
The game to watch out for is Chicago at St. Louis, as it looks like we’ll have rain early and thunderstorms a bit later as a possibility. Make sure to monitor that if you’re playing early or all-day slates.
Good luck!
