In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
Bryan Mears: Madison Bumgarner, SF, SP
Looking at recent advanced stats versus year-long ones is very useful in finding some hidden edges. However, not all increases or decreases are created equal. For example, when Bryce Harper hits the ball two percent harder in recent games, that means something different than when a guy without any power in the first place hits the ball a little harder. Baselines and context matter.
This leads me to Madison Bumgarner, the premier SP play today. In his first two starts, Bumgarner has been throwing the ball 1.2 MPH faster than he threw it last year. An increase in pitch velocity of one to three MPH for all pitchers has resulted in a Plus/Minus bump of +0.48 points. However, if you look at solely elite pitchers with that same bump — let’s say pitchers over $10.5K on DraftKings — the Plus/Minus is a whopping +5.02. Not all increases are created equal, and if you see an elite player trending in a positive direction (like Bum today), pounce on the opportunity.
Read more of Bryan’s recommendations for today in his slate breakdown. Also check out today’s upcoming Fantasy Flex Podcast, in which Bryan talks about other notable pitchers.
Bill Monighetti: Curtis Granderson, NYM, OF
Whatever momentum Jeremy Hellickson had built up in his first two starts of the season quickly dissipated during a 9-1 thrashing at the hands of the Nationals last Friday. Hellickson seems like an unlikely person to pick on at first — after all, he shutdown these same New York Mets less than two weeks ago — but let’s dig into the matchup a bit further. The Mets generally strike out against right-handed pitching, as evidenced by their collective 24.7 percent K Rate on the season. However, Hellickson’s strikeout rate against lefties is a rather low 18.2 percent since the start of the 2015 season.
The Mets’ lefties are likely to make plenty of contact against Hellickson, as Granderson, Michael Conforto, Neil Walker, and Lucas Duda all have an Isolated Power of .215 against righties. Further, Hellickson allows a 37 percent flyball rate, tied for second-worst among today’s starting pitchers. Finally, Citizens Bank Park for left-handed batters has a Park Factor of 59, which is substantially higher than their Park Factor of 24 at Citi Field, the venue of Hellickson’s last clash with the Mets. While Granderson is probably best deployed as part of a lefty stack against Hellickson, I’ve chosen him as my featured hitter due to his +2.4 Plus/Minus on the road over the past 300 games vs. his -0.4 Plus/Minus at home.
Mitchell Block: Mark Teixeira, NYY, 1B
There’s admittedly some concern regarding Teixeira’s start to this season, but as a historically slow starter, Teixeira will get things going at some point. With him, it’s generally more a matter of when, not if. The Yankees are projected to score 4.7 runs tonight — tied with the Orioles for the highest implied total of the slate — so I’m apt to roll with their struggling clean-up hitter in what should be a solid matchup for him.
Not only are Teixeira’s platoon splits impressive — with an ISO Differential of 0.204 and Weighted On-Base Average Differential of 0.101 — but they should be further amplified in a matchup with subpar-righty Kendall Graveman. Of 112 qualifying pitchers last season, Graveman’s 1.53 WHIP vs. left-handed hitters ranked a dismal 92nd. All of these factors on their own merit make Teixeira a solid play, but he is pushed toward the top of the 1B ranks for me on account of his playing in the lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium, where he’ll have an elite Park Factor of 81. Teixeira will be an especially attractive play on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent today.
Read about other batters to roster in Mitch’s Stack of the Day article.
Matthew Freedman: Nomar Mazara, TEX, OF
As of writing (9:00 AM ET), Mazara is the highest-rated DraftKings batter in the CSURAM88 2016 and Bales 2016 models — so I’m not really saying anything original. At the same time, one doesn’t need to be always original to make money. Batting second for the Rangers, who have a slate-high implied total of 4.8 runs, Mazara is a fantastic value at DK, where he has a $3,200 salary and a Bargain Rating of 75 percent. Playing in Arlington, he has a respectable Park Factor of 65 and one of the best Weather Ratings in the slate at 49. Out of all outfielders, he matches for the main slate’s second-most Pro Trends with nine.
Within the slate, his .507 wOBA (vs. handedness), .287 wOBA Differential, and 0.2 ISO Differential all place him within the top-ten at the position. Mazara has a combination of Consistency and Upside this season that is surpassed by only a few other outfielders, but unlike many of them Mazara has not experienced an upward Salary Change at DK, so you are not yet paying a premium for his past production. Per our advanced MLB data, he isn’t crushing the ball, with an Average Distance of only 228 feet per batted ball and a middling Exit Velocity of only 88 MPH — but at his salary Mazara simply offers too much value to ignore in cash games.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
