The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the Fantasy Labs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The Valero Texas Open will feature a rather weak field, which isn’t surprising considering the Masters is just one week away. But it also means there are only nine golfers who are inside the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings this week.
Let’s dive in!
The Course
As always, I backtested various metrics in our PGA Models to find out which have been the most valuable at TPC San Antonio. Per our Trends tool, here’s how the top 20% of golfers in various metrics have done at this course (in Plus/Minus valuation).
Historically, this course has yielded averages of 42.79 DraftKings points and a -5.53 Plus/Minus with a 43% Consistency Rating to the field.
I’m listing only those metrics that tested positively relative to the baseline:
- Recent Par-4 Scoring: +6.70
- Recent Driving Distance: +3.78
- Recent Scrambling: +2.74
- Long-Term Driving Distance: +2.60
- Recent Eagles: +2.59
- Long-Term Eagles: +2.55
- Recent Bogeys: +2.29
- Recent Greens in Regulation: +1.98
- Long-Term Birdies: +1.86
- Long-Term Bogeys: +1.80
- Long-Term Par-5 Scoring: +1.70
- Long-Term Putts Per Round: +1.55
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: +1.43
- Long-Term Par-4 Scoring: +1.10
- Long-Term Scrambling: +1.00
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: +0.35
- Recent Putts Per Round: +0.31
- Recent Missed Cuts: +0.23
- Long-Term Par-3 Scoring: +0.06
TPC San Antonio is a rather long and difficult course, especially if the wind starts going. This week seems straight forward by targeting golfers who excel off the tee, have a good approach game and can do well on par 4s and par 5s.
Par 5-scoring, in particular, will be the most crucial since all four of them have birdie rates of 19.7% or higher. The only par 4s with birdie rates above 20% are the two short pars that check in between 340-350 yards, per Fantasy National.
Key metrics to focus on: Par-4 and par-5 scoring, birdie or better scoring, driving distance, Strokes Gained: Approach
And as usual, I like Long-Term (LT) and Recent Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) as catch-all metrics.
Best DFS Plays for the Valero Texas Open
$10,000 and Above (DraftKings Pricing)
If I don’t favor a balanced build, there are two golfers at more than $10,000 I’ll be looking at.
First up is Rickie Fowler ($11,700 DraftKings; $12,500 FanDuel). He’s fairly long off the tee with his 300.1-yard Long-Term Driving Distance (LT DD), and he leads the field with his 68.1 LT Adj Rd Score. Rickie also excels at par 4s as he’s sporting a field-best -2.0 adjusted strokes on them over the past 75 weeks. And he ranks first in par-4 efficiency on par 4s that are shorter than 350 yards, per Fantasy National.
Tony Finau ($10,800 DraftKings; $12,000 FanDuel) would be my preferred option in the $10,000 range given the $900 savings from Fowler. Finau is incredibly long off the tee with his 313.6-yard LT DD, and he ranks first in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over his past 50 rounds.
Finau might be underpriced relative to the other top-priced golfers considering his 68.2 LT Adj Rd Score trails only Fowler, and his Long-Term birdies per tournament leads all of them by a considerable amount with the exception of Rickie. Finau’s -5.3 adjusted strokes on par 5s is also among the strongest marks in the field.
$9,900-$9,000
Billy Horschel ($9,800 DraftKings; $11,000 FanDuel) has the third-best LT Adj Rd Score in the field, and he has an excellent all-around game, ranking sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach and ninth in Total Strokes Gained over his past 50 rounds.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jason Kokrak
Jason Kokrak ($9,400 DraftKings; $11,200 FanDuel) has been incredible this season with six top-20 finishes in 2019, including three top 10s in his last four tournaments, resulting in a 67.7 recent Adj Rd Score. His 308.4-yard LT DD gives him the distance to compete here, not to mention he ranks first in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds.
Byeong-Hun An ($9,200 DraftKings; $10,200 FanDuel) has the fifth-best LT Adj Rd Score in the field, but he’s priced as the No. 10 golfer this week. He’s also in great recent form with his 68.4 recent Adj Rd Score. An is another guy who is long off the tee, evidenced by his 306.6-yard LT DD and has a solid approach game, ranking eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds.
I’m not that keen on Ryan Moore ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,100 FanDuel) given his length off the tee (288.9-yard LT DD), but he owns a solid approach game (second in Strokes Gained: Approach), and he’s an excellent ball-striker. And with the weak field this week, the options are quite limited.
$8,900-$8,000
Abraham Ancer ($8,900 DraftKings; $10,300 FanDuel) has been hit or miss this year, but he owns some of the best odds in this price range. He’s been decent on par 5s, averaging -4.2 adjusted strokes on them over the past 75 weeks. And he’s also an excellent ball-striker, ranking fifth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and third in Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee.
Luke List‘s ($8,000 DraftKings; $10,500 FanDuel) 314.7-yard LT DD is the fourth-highest mark in the field, so it’s not surprising to see he’s been solid on par 5s, averaging -4.9 adjusted strokes on them. List is underpriced relative to his LT Adj Rd Score (69.3) as he owns the eighth-best LT Adj Rd Score, but he’s priced as the No. 22 golfer.
$7,900-$7,000
Daniel Berger ($7,800 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel) hasn’t been in the best form of late, but he’s another golfer who is cheap compared to his LT Adj Rd Score. Berger boasts the same LT Adj Rd Score as List, but he’s as priced as the No. 26 golfer. Additionally, Berger also ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 16th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over his last 50 rounds. If Berger can progress to his long-term form, he should be an excellent value.
Joaquin Niemann ($7,600 DraftKings; $9,600 FanDuel) can bomb it with his 306.6-yard LT DD. He ranks inside the top 10 in adjusted strokes on par 4s, and while his -4.0 adjusted strokes on par 5s isn’t elite, it’s still not bad — he’s $7,600, give him a break. More importantly, over his past 50 rounds, Niemann ranks inside the top six in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Ball Striking, Off-the-tee, and Approach.
Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Dahmen
Joel Dahmen ($7,500 DraftKings; $9,300 FanDuel) has strung together three-straight made cuts after missing four-straight cuts in the four prior tournaments. However, three of those missed cuts came at very hard tournaments (Arnold Palmer Invitational, Honda Classic, Genesis Open). Moreover, Dahmen also ranks 22nd in Strokes Gained: Approach and seventh in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over his past 50 rounds.
Dylan Frittelli ($7,300 DraftKings; $9,300 FanDuel) has a solid 302.1-yard LT DD to go along with his -5.1 adjusted strokes on par 5s, which ranks inside the top 10 in the field. He also ranks 20th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green which is incredibly good for a golfer priced this low.
Scott Stallings ($7,000 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel) could be an interesting tournament play if you need the salary relief given he ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds.
$6,900 and Below
Sam Ryder ($6,300 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel) could also be worth a dart throw: Josh Perry explains why in his Valero betting guide.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National.
Pictured above: Byeong-Hun An
Photo credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
