The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel have an all-day slate beginning at 1:05 p.m. ET. Additionally, DraftKings has a six-game early slate, and FanDuel has a four-game early slate, which also start at 1:05 p.m. ET. And both sites host a six-game main slate at 7:10 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost at least $10,000, and they’re all featured on either the all-day or early slate:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,000, CLE @ MIN
- James Paxton (L) $10,400, NYY vs. BAL
- Noah Syndergaard (R) $10,000, NYM @ WSH
Bauer checks in as the most expensive pitcher by a significant margin in the early set of games. He owns a solid 7.6 K Prediction, and the opposing Twins are implied for just 3.7 runs. However, at the time of writing, the Indians are narrow -118 moneyline favorites. Historically, pitchers with such high salaries and comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have averaged a -0.98 FanDuel Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Paying $400 less on FanDuel for Paxton would make the most sense, especially since Paxton presently projects higher than Bauer, and he has an 89% Bargain Rating on that site. Bauer is a better value on DraftKings, where he costs $9,800 with an 80% Bargain Rating and where Paxton is the most expensive pitcher at $10,800. That said, Paxton is still the guy I’d lock in if playing the early slate on DraftKings.
Paxton and the Yankees are massive -384 moneyline favorites against an Orioles team implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs. Additionally, Paxton boasts an excellent 8.6 K Prediction against a projected Orioles lineup that has a high 28% strikeout rate along with a putrid .242 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). Pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have averaged an absurd +6.57 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 78.8% Consistency Rating since 2013.
Syndergaard projects the worst among the high-priced pitchers. He owns a slate-worse -2.13 Projected Plus/Minus along with a 5.8 K Prediction, which is among the lowest marks on the slate. He’s likely nothing more than a tournament pivot off the other top-priced guys, but he carries considerable risk against a projected Nationals lineup that has a low 20.4% strikeout rate. He may not have a GPP-winning ceiling in this spot.
Values
Jake Odorizzi could suffice as an SP2 on DraftKings with his 7.4 K Prediction. The Twins are slight underdogs, but the projected Indians lineup has a massive 32.5% strikeout rate along with a low 3.9 implied run total. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a +1.53 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Jake Junis is more of a value on FanDuel, where he has an 86% Bargain Rating, but he’s still usable on DraftKings. Junis has a solid 7.4 K Prediction against a White Sox team that has a high 30.6% strikeout rate. Further, this game is projected to have around 17-mph winds blowing in from left field, which should bode well for Junis. Overall, the White Sox are implied for just 3.9 runs, and the Royals check in as -122 moneyline favorites.
On the all-day slate, Collin McHugh is a potential salary relief option who has an 8.5 K Prediction against a Rays team implied for 3.6 runs. He was in the Astros bullpen last season, and he’s been dealing with back soreness since February, so there is some risk in rostering him.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodriguez: He was solid last season, sporting an above average xFIP and SIERA in 2018. He owns a 76% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he’s also a solid option as an SP1 on DraftKings. Rodriguez leads the main slate with his 7.7 K Prediction, and the Red Sox are the second-largest favorite on the slate.
Kenta Maeda: He finished 2018 in the Dodgers bullpen, but he’s back in the starting rotation for now. He possesses a solid 7.3 K Prediction against a projected Diamondbacks lineup that has a 24.7% strikeout rate and .292 wOBA. The main risk with Maeda is that he rarely pitches deep into games, so he needs to be efficient when he’s on the mound.
Brandon Woodruff: He was excellent in his limited outings in 2018, getting three wins in four starts while sporting a 3.36 xFIP and 3.26 SIERA. While his sample of starts is small, the six-game main slate doesn’t offer an abundance of intriguing options. Woodruff’s 5.5 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the Brewers do check in as -133 favorites on the moneyline at the time of writing.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack when generated by projected points belongs to the New York Yankees for the early slate.
- 1. Brett Gardner (L)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- 4. Luke Voit (R)
Total Salary: $19,700
The Yankees could be a popular stack for the DraftKings early slate since their 5.8 implied run total is the highest mark by 1.2 runs. For at least some of the game, the Yankees wills square off against Nate Karns. He missed all of 2018 due to injury, so it’s likely they’ll take on Karns plus an abundance of bullpen arms. This could bode well for this stack, since FanGraphs ranked the Orioles with No. 20 bullpen in the league.
Even if Baltimore throws a bunch of righties at this stack, most of the hitters still have considerable power against right-handed pitchers. Voit has an elite .454 wOBA and .330 isolated power (ISO) against righties over the past 12 months, while Judge possesses a .383 wOBA and .234 ISO.
The top four-man stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model for the FanDuel main slate belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
- 1. Lorenzo Cain (R)
- 2. Christian Yelich (L)
- 3. Ryan Braun (R)
- 4. Travis Shaw (L)
Total Salary: $15,300
The Brewers will be up against Dakota Hudson, who is sporting a 1.35 WHIP and measly 6.25 SO/9 over the past year. Overall, the Brew Crew’s 4.6 implied run total trails only the Cubs on the main slate.
Among the outfielders on the main slate, Yelich, Braun and Cain all carry projections inside our top seven at the position. Yelich has smashed right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, evidenced by his elite .426 wOBA and .286 ISO. He’s off to a hot start with home runs in back-to-back games. This would help explain his absurd Statcast data over the past two games, as he owns a 315-foot recent batted-ball distance, 101-mph exit velocity and 80% hard-hit rate. Obviously, that will regress, but he’s in good form.
Other Batters
Max Muncy carries a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings against the right-handed Zack Godley. Muncy will be on the positive side of his splits, as he’s obliterated righties over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .416 wOBA and .336 ISO.
If you’re seeking more exposure to the Brewers, Mike Moustakas owns a .342 wOBA and .236 ISO against righties over the past year, and he has the highest projected ceiling among second basemen in our models.
Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez won’t come cheap, but they have smashed right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months: They each have wOBAs of .442 against them. Additionally, Betts boasts a .282 ISO, and Martinez has a ridiculous .325 ISO.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Christian Yelich
Photo credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
