The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel will be hosting an eight-game main slate for Friday that begins at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there is one pitcher who costs at least $10,000:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,300, HOU @ TB
Cole was dominant last season, sporting a 1.02 WHIP, 12.36 K/9 and allowing just 0.84 HR/9. He’s one of the best pitching options on Friday’s slate against a Rays team that’s implied for a paltry 3.3 runs. Cole’s 9.2 K Prediction is a slate-best against a projected Rays lineup that possesses a rather high 25.6% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months.
Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have averaged a +4.35 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 65.6% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). Cole will also be at a pitcher-friendly venue as Tropicana Field has a Park Factor of 79 for right-handed pitchers. When combining comparable park factors to the metrics above, those numbers jump to a +7.31 Plus/Minus with a 78.9% Consistency Rating.
Honorable Mention
German Marquez is priced just below $10,000 on FanDuel, checking in at $9,800. He’s another strong option against a Marlins team implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs. Much like Cole, Marquez will be in a pitcher-friendly field as Marlins Park has a Park Factor of 83.
Marquez also boasts a similar K Prediction (9.1) as he takes on a projected Marlins lineup that has a slate-high 29.7% strikeout rate against righties over the past year. They also have a slate-worst .274 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).
Values
Joey Lucchesi is better reserved for tournaments on FanDuel, but he could suffice as an SP2 on DraftKings for $7,900. His 1.58 HR/9 over the past year isn’t ideal, but he did have an above average SIERA and xFIP last season. The Giants also don’t have much power in their lineup to go along with their weak .278 wOBA.
Lucchesi owns a solid 7.2 K Prediction against a Giants team implied for only 3.4 runs. The Padres also check in as one of the bigger favorites (-146 moneyline) on the slate. His +7.58 DraftKings Plus/Minus trails only Marquez and Cole.
Fastballs
- Robbie Ray: He’s a high-strikeout pitcher (12.0 SO/9 over the past year) with an 8.2 K Prediction, but the Diamondbacks are +146 moneyline dogs. He’s better reserved for tournaments, more so on FanDuel where he has a 100% Bargain Rating.
- Matt Shoemaker: He could be better than his 4.94 ERA last season suggests, since his xFIP was 3.64 — more than a full run lower than his ERA. Granted, that’s from a 31-inning sample as he battled injuries. However, he does have a career 3.93 xFIP and 3.82 SIERA. Shoemaker could be a pleasant surprise if he shows any resemblance of his old self. The Jays are presently -130 moneyline favorites and the Tigers are implied for a meager 4.0 runs.
- Ross Stripling: He has a solid 7.3 K Prediction, and the Dodgers are the largest favorite on the slate against a Diamondbacks team implied for 3.1 runs. The projected Diamondbacks lineup has a 24.2% strikeout rate and lackluster .289 wOBA against righties over the past year.
- Jack Flaherty: Bettors are high on the Cardinals as they’re receiving 62% of the bets and 78% of the money against the Brewers as of writing. His ownership could be reduced in tournaments since the Cardinals are slight dogs, but he does have an excellent 7.6 K Prediction, and the Brewers’ run total has dropped from 4.8 to 4.2 since the line opened.
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Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack when generated by projected points belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 2. Mookie Betts (R)
- 4. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 5. Xander Bogaerts (R)
Total Salary: $19,800
Friday’s main slate doesn’t appear to be a high-scoring day on paper since the Red Sox’s 4.4 implied run total is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate. The matchup against left-handed Yusei Kikuchi puts Betts on the positive side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits; he owns an elite .480 wOBA and .331 ISO against lefties over the past year.
And even though Martinez won’t be on the positive side of his splits, he still mashes lefties, sporting a .395 wOBA and .213 ISO against them. Each hitter in this stack possesses a Bargain Rating of 83% or higher on DraftKings.
The top four-man stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model for FanDuel belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.
- 1. Brandon Drury (R)
- 2. Randal Grichuk (R)
- 3. Teoscar Hernandez (R)
- 6. Kevin Pillar (R)
Total Salary: $10,700
This particular Blue Jays stack is just $10,700 while gaining exposure to their slate high 4.5 implied run total against Matt Boyd. It could also be contrarian since it rosters the hitter from the No. 6 spot in the order over the No. 4 and No. 5 spot.
Boyd wasn’t great in 2018 as he owned a 4.31 SIERA and 4.72 xFIP. He also surrendered a decent amount of hard contact with his 37% hard-hit rate. His 49% fly-ball rate could also make him susceptible to giving up a home run or two.
Hernandez has demonstrated he has a good amount of power against lefties over the past 12 months with his .243 ISO. He could match up well with Boyd’s fly-ball tendencies since Hernandez has averaged a 232-foot average batted-ball distance, 92-mph exit velocity, 43% fly-ball rate and 37% hard-hit rate over the past year.
Other Batters
While Freddy Peralta is a high-strikeout pitcher, he can also have some poor outings, which could bode well for Matt Carpenter, who has a .391 wOBA and .274 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Over that same span, Carpenter had a ridiculous 243-foot average batted-ball distance and 95-mph exit velocity. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data who are hitting in the top half of the order have historically averaged a +1.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Matt Harvey’s 1.56 HR/9 over the past 12 months is the third-worst mark among pitchers on Friday. He wasn’t great last season as he sported a below average SIERA and xFIP. Stephen Piscotty is expected to hit from the No. 3 spot and even though it’s a righty vs. righty matchup, he’ll be on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits, owning a .355 wOBA and .228 ISO against them dating back to last year.
Second base is a rather gross position on Friday, but Chris Taylor narrowly leads the position in median and ceiling projections on both sites. Taylor owns a 38% hard-hit rate over the past 12 months, and he’ll be squaring off against Ray, whose given up an abundance of hard contact over the same time frame, evidenced by his 44% hard-hit rate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Gerrit Cole
Photo credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
