The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Opening Day has arrived, and we’ll be kicking it off with a full day of games! Each slate differs between DraftKings and FanDuel on Thursday. DraftKings is offering a five-game early slate and 14-game all-day slate that begins at 1:05 p.m. ET, along with a nine-game main slate starting at 4 p.m. ET.
FanDuel will offer a 15-game all-day slate and 14-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET, with their nine-game afternoon only slate beginning at 4 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings, there are four pitchers who cost at least $10,000:
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,100, WSH vs. NYM
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,000, HOU @ TB
- Jacob deGrom (R) $10,500, NYM @ WSH
- Corey Kluber (R) $10,500, CLE @ MIN
On DraftKings’ early slate, Scherzer and deGrom stand out as the best pitching options. For cash games, Scherzer makes the most sense since the Nationals are presently -137 moneyline favorites against the Mets, whose 3.1 implied run total is tied with the Orioles for the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Scherzer’s 7.9 K Prediction is also a slate-best. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions against teams with comparable implied run totals have averaged 23.58 DraftKings points per game with a +2.76 Plus/Minus and 59.3% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). These pitchers have also come highly-owned, however, averaging over 30% ownership in GPPs since 2014.
deGrom is a slight dog (+127 moneyline) at the time of writing, but he still boasts a solid 7.8 K Prediction and the Nationals are implied for a meager 3.8 runs. This makes him a viable GPP pivot off Scherzer; underdog pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and opponent implied run totals have averaged 22.48 DraftKings points per game with a +2.82 Plus/Minus. Those pitchers have also come with almost half the ownership (17.6%) as the aforementioned pitchers. deGrom’s main issue in this game will be run support.
Unless you’re on the all-day slate, Verlander exposure will have to be on DraftKings’ main slate or FanDuel’s main slate. Verlander could be a viable option on FanDuel over Scherzer for $300 less. His 8.9 K Prediction leads the main slate against a projected Rays lineup that owns a 25.6% strikeout rate against righties over the past year. Furthermore, Verlander will also have a Park Factor of 81 to go along with the Rays’ weak 3.1 implied run total. My lean is Verlander over Scherzer for Opening Day, and our projections would agree.
Kluber will likely be the forgotten man among this bunch on FanDuel’s main slate, but he’d be worth a look in tournaments at lower ownership than Scherzer and Verlander since only one pitcher can be used on that site. Kluber’s 6.8 K Prediction is the third-highest mark on DraftKings’ main slate against a Twins team with an implied run total of just 3.6 runs. He’ll likely be higher-owned on DraftKings given it’s a two-pitcher site.
There could be some cause for concern considering most of the sharp money for this game is coming in on the Twins. However, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged 20.70 DraftKings points per game, which puts him on par with Verlander on the main slate.
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Values
Marcus Stroman costs just $6,900 on DraftKings, making him a viable pitcher for the SP2 spot. His 5.3 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the Jays are presently -137 moneyline favorites, and the Tigers are implied for an unintimidating 4.0 runs.
Stroman owned a 62% ground-ball rate last season, which has historically been a positive trend for starting pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data, as they’ve averaged a +1.47 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Hyun-jin Ryu boasts a 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, which leads the main slate. He has a 6.3 K Prediction, but strikeouts could be hard to find against a projected lineup that owns an 18.9% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year. However, the Diamondbacks have a weak .297 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) over the same time frame, along with a 3.3 implied run total.
Ryu is a better value on FanDuel, but he could be a viable mid-range SP2 on DraftKings.
Eric Lauer leads DraftKings’ main slate with a 90% Bargain Rating, costing just $5,600. He carries a lowly 4.2 K Prediction, but the Padres are -110 favorites and the Giants are implied for 3.7 runs. He’s a serviceable punt if you’re looking to save some money for bats.
Fastballs
Aaron Nola: He’s best suited for tournaments given he has a 5.9 K Prediction against a projected Braves lineup that owns a low 19.9% strikeout rate against righties over the past year. The Phillies are -190 favorites, and the Braves are implied for only 3.4 runs.
Masahiro Tanaka: The Yankees are massive -351 favorites against an Orioles team implied for 2.9 runs. Pitchers who are at least -300 favorites have averaged a +3.53 DraftKings Plus/Minus since 2014.
Blake Snell: The Rays are slight +119 underdogs against an Astros team implied for 3.5 runs, making Snell an intriguing tournament play. His 11.0 SO/9 and 7.3 K Prediction marks trail only Verlander’s on DraftKings’ main slate.
Jose Berrios: He has the third-highest K Prediction on DraftKings’ main slate against a projected Indians lineup that has a weak .277 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Sharp money is also coming in on the Twins, who are seeing 50% of the bets but 64% of the money. The Twins have moved from +122 to +108 underdogs as a result.
Kyle Freeland: He’ll square off against a projected Marlins lineup that has a slate-high 29.5% strikeout rate and lackluster .272 wOBA against lefties over the past year.
Chris Sale: He’s available only on FanDuel’s all-day slate, but he leads the entire day with his 9.9 K Prediction and massive 50.3-point median projection.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack for the early slate when generated by projected points belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
- 1. Lorenzo Cain (R)
- 2. Christian Yelich (L)
- 3. Jesus Aguilar (R)
- 4. Travis Shaw (R)
- 5. Ryan Braun (R)
Total Salary: $22,500
The early slate on DraftKings has just one team implied for over 5.0 runs; otherwise, every team is at 4.7 or lower. The Brewers check in with a middling 4.3 implied run total against Miles Mikolas, who went 18-4 with a low 2.83 ERA last season. The main issue for the Brewers is that Mikolas had a ground-ball rate of 50% last season, along with a hard-hit rate of just 32%.
However, this stack possesses significant power against right-handed pitchers. Over the past year, Shaw, Yelich and Aguilar own ISOs of at least .258 against them, along with wOBAs above .366. Shaw will also be on the positive side of his splits, sporting an ISO and wOBA differential of +.103 and +.193.
If seeking exposure to a high-total team, the Cubs’ 5.0 implied run total trails only the Yankees’ on FanDuel’s main slate.
- 1. Ben Zobrist (S)
- 2. Kris Bryant (R)
- 3. Anthony Rizzo (L)
- 4. Javier Baez (R)
Total Salary: $14,700
The Cubs could be a popular stack since they’re one of two teams on FanDuel’s main slate with an implied run total of 5.0 or higher. They’ll square off against lefty Mike Minor, who owned a 44% fly-ball rate last season, along with a 37% hard-hit rate. That fly-ball rate is the third-highest mark among main slate pitchers.
Kris Bryant dominated lefties last season, hitting them to the tune of a .471 wOBA and .341 ISO, which puts him on the positive side of his splits. Bryant has an absurd +.206 ISO differential against lefties over the past 12 months.
Javier Baez leads this stack with his 33.2-point projected ceiling. His .394 wOBA and .263 ISO marks trail only Bryant’s among Cubs hitters on Thursday. Hitters with comparable ceiling projections in games with comparable implied run totals have historically averaged a +1.17 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Justin Smoak will face right-handed Jordan Zimmermann, who possesses an absurd 1.91 HR/9 over the past 12 months. During that time frame, Zimmerman allowed a 42% fly-ball rate and 223-foot average batted-ball distance to go along with his high 38% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Smoak is sporting a .367 wOBA and .254 ISO against righties over the past year. His 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings is the second-highest Bargain Rating among first basemen.
Whit Merrifield was excellent for the Royals last season, averaging 11.41 FanDuel points per game with a +1.16 Plus/Minus. He’s especially valuable if he gets on base, as he swiped 45 bags last season. He presently leads all second basemen on FanDuel’s main slate in floor, median and ceiling projections.
Mike Trout is likely worth every penny on Opening Day since he leads all positions in ceiling and median projections to go with his elite .472 wOBA and .336 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’ll be squaring off against Mike Fiers, whose 4.51 xFIP was almost a full run higher than his 3.74 ERA last year, suggesting he was quite lucky.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
