The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
There are two PGA tour events this week, but we’ll be focusing on DraftKings’ featured match play contests that are bring offered this season.
The Format
The 2019 World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play tournament will feature the top 64 available players in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). The players are seeded by their OWGR and placed into four pools (A, B, C, D) of 16 players, then matched into a group with three other golfers. Each golfer is guaranteed to play three rounds (Wednesday, Thursday and Friday).
After Friday, the winners of those groups will advance to the field of 16. This means only 25% of the field will advance after three rounds and earn points for your DFS team. Considering usually around 50% of the field makes the cut, this should make for an especially fun tilting event for DFS players.
You’ll need to look at a bracket when making your DraftKings team because you need to have at least one player from each quadrant. The reason you want at least one player from each quadrant is that so you could potentially have the final four golfers correct.
The Course
Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas is a short par-71, 7,108-yard course. It’s designed by Pete Dye, one of the most recognized course designers in the PGA and an expert at creating distractions for golfers.
The back nine at Austin CC is known as the “lowlands nine.” The front nine will play higher and are considered the “highlands,” which has a resemblance to the Texas Hill Country. Dye studied courses in Scotland and also adapted their pot-style bunkers into Austin CC. Long hitters should find success here with all three par 5s exceeding 564 yards and a drivable 317-yard par 4. Ball-striking will also be crucial given the short nature of the course.
Given the style of the tournament this week, we don’t have data to backtest for Austin Country Club, so the metrics I weigh will be the ones I find most crucial in a typical week.
Metrics to consider: Long-Term Adjusted Round Score, birdie scoring, par-4 and par-5 scoring, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach.
The Players
Group 7
This group features Francesco Molinari ($9,300), Webb Simpson ($8,300), Thorbjorn Olesen ($6,500) and Satoshi Kodaira ($6,000).
I’m a fan of Molinari in Group 7 because it essentially seems like it will be Molinari vs. Simpson to advance. Molinari’s 68.6 LT Adj Rd Score narrowly trails Simpson’s 68.6, and he leads Simpson in birdies per tournament (14.6 vs. 13.5).
Further, Molinari ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach over the past 50 rounds while Simpson ranks 20th and 19th, respectively. I wouldn’t think Olesen or Kodaira have much of a chance to take down Molinari or Simpson in this spot, and our projections at The Action Network would agree.
Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Francesco Molinari
The winner of this group would go on to face the winner of Paul Casey, Cameron Smith, Charles Howell and Abraham Ancer, in which I also like Molinari to get the win.
Group 14
This group features Tony Finau ($9,000), Ian Poulter ($7,700), Kevin Kisner ($7,000) and Keith Mitchell ($6,400).
This tier will be a tight race, as our projections all have their chance to advance between 18.9-29.8%. Depending on how much salary you need to save, I’d be okay targeting Poulter, Kisner or Mitchell over Finau to advance from this pod.
Finau leads this group in LT Adj Rd Score, but Poulter has better odds to win this tournament than Finau along with the rest of the group. Additionally, Finau ranks just 21st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 31st in Strokes Gained: Approach compared to the field over the past 50 rounds.
Meanwhile, Mitchell ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 17th in Strokes Gained: Approach, which leads this whole group, which makes him a solid target if you need the salary savings. If you don’t, my lean is Poulter who has a more well-rounded game. Poulter’s 15.1 birdies per tournament and -5.3 adjusted strokes on par 5s narrowly trails Finau but leads Mitchell and Kisner by -0.6 and -1.2 strokes.
Group 15
Group 15 includes Bubba Watson ($8,900), Jordan Spieth ($8,700), Billy Horschel ($7,300) and Kevin Na ($6,300).
Watson’s 32% chance to advance from this group is the third-lowest percent for a golfer who is the top seed in his group. In the model I created on FantasyLabs, Horschel leads this entire group. This isn’t surprising since his LT Adj Rd Score leads all of them.
Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Billy Horschel
Along with leading this group in LT Adj Rd Score, Horschel also leads them in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (29th) and Strokes Gained: Approach (14th) while the other three rank 32nd or worse in both metrics.
Group 1
This group features Dustin Johnson ($11,400), Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200), Branden Grace ($7,400) and Chez Reavie ($6,700).
DJ is the second-most expensive golfer this week behind Rory McIlroy ($11,700). If I’m paying up for someone, it’s probably DJ. He leads our projections in odds to win the group (46.6%), to make it to the final four (21.6%), and to win the title (8.3%).
DJ’s 67.2 LT Adj Rd Score leads the entire field and leads this whole group by 1.4 strokes or better. Additionally, he leads the field in birdies per tournament and adjusted strokes on par 4s, but his -6.1 adjusted strokes on par 5s slight trails Justin Thomas.
Matsuyama will give DJ the most trouble in this group since Deki ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and first in Strokes Gained: Approach over the past 50 rounds while DJ ranks second in both metrics.
It wouldn’t be terribly shocking to see Matsuyama get the best of DJ in a single round, but over an extended period of time DJ should win more often than not.
Group 12
Jason Day ($9,800), Phil Mickelson ($8,000), Henrik Stenson ($7,600) and Jim Furyk ($7,200) are all involved in another tight race with our projections checking between 18.7-32.7%. Day leads the group with 32.7% odds to advance, which is the fourth-lowest mark among favorites.
Given the close odds, this is where I’d prefer to save salary.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jason Day
Even though Day has a solid 68.1 LT Adj Rd Score, he makes up most of his strokes with his short game and his putting. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Putting and second in Strokes Gained: Short Game. Day missed the cut at Valspar after he lost 1.5 strokes from tee-to-green and -1.6 around the green.
The projections on The Action Network show Stenson with the second-best odds to advance in this group with a 25.7% chance, so he could be the guy to target from this group. It’s not an awful play considering he has the second-best LT Adj Rd Score in this group, and he ranks 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach over the past 50 rounds.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more golf coverage!
Note: Strokes Gained data via Fantasy National.
Pictured above: Dustin Johnson
Photo credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
