The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard is coming off a monster game in his last outing, scoring 76.75 DraftKings points in an overtime loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.87 over his past 10 games and has posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on DraftKings. He’s in a great spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency this season.
Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Damian Lillard
The Blazers’ implied team total of 120.25 ranks third at the position, and Lillard’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.50 is one of the top marks at the point guard position. He leads all point guards with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
The best matchup at the point guard position belongs to Spencer Dinwiddie, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.32 vs. the Atlanta Hawks. Dinwiddie has played just four games since returning from a lengthy injury absence, but he did play just under 30.5 minutes in his last contest.
He’s averaged an elite 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage if he sees around 30 minutes in this contest. He’s another excellent value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
The top implied team total of the day belongs to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have a juicy matchup vs. the Washington Wizards. These two teams played earlier this week and combined for 256 points, which makes this an appealing game to target.
Jeff Teague stands out at the point guard position from that contest. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games.
Trae Young has failed to return value in each of his past three games, which has caused his salary to drop to just $8,300 on FanDuel. That makes him an interesting buy low target today vs. the Brooklyn Nets. They’ve struggled against point guards this season, giving Young an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.24, and his salary results in a Bargain Rating of 82%. He has the upside to be the highest scoring point guard on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
There are a few different options available for those looking to pay up at shooting guard on today’s slate, but D’Angelo Russell is in the most appealing situation. For starters, he’s been really good recently, averaging a position-best 1.41 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s seen a reduction in playing time recently but did log 32 minutes in his last game.
Russell also benefits from the top matchup at the position vs. the Hawks. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66 on DraftKings, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Kevin Heurter doesn’t offer much in terms of upside, but he’s underpriced on today’s slate at just $4,100 on FanDuel. His salary has decreased by -$1,400 over the past month, and his current price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 82%. He’s scored at least 17.3 FanDuel points in each of his past five games, and he doesn’t need to do much more than that to provide value at his reduced salary.
Fast Break
CJ McCollum is comically underpriced at $6,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and McCollum has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.45 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool). He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 34.5 minutes in our NBA Models.
Andrew Wiggins hasn’t displayed the same upside recently, but he’s been priced down to just $5,900 on DraftKings. He’s a relatively inexpensive way to get exposure to the top implied team total of the day.
Small Forward
Stud
The top of the small forward position features two of the biggest names in basketball today in Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James. That said, the decision of which one to target on today’s DFS slate is pretty cut and dry. LeBron will supposedly be limited to 30-32 minutes of playing time moving forward, which makes Giannis the clear option to target.
Giannis has also been a strong contributor recently, averaging 1.79 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.05 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. Giannis is in a decent spot today vs. the Charlotte Hornets – the Bucks implied team total of 119.5 ranks fourth on the slate – and he owns the highest ceiling projection in our NBA Models. He’s a strong option for GPPs.
Value
Troy Brown carries some appeal if you’re looking for a pure punt play on today’s slate. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games. He played 18.3 minutes yesterday vs. the Hornets and has averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Joe Harris is underpriced at just $4,200 on FanDuel. He’s seen a price decrease of -$1,200 over the past month, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He also saw more than 32 minutes of playing time in his last contest, which makes him an excellent buy-low target vs. the Hawks.
The Celtics’ depth makes them a tough team to target on a night-to-night basis, but Gordon Hayward has been an excellent option recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games on DraftKings and remains affordable at just $4,300 for today’s contest vs. the Lakers.
Power Forward
Stud
The power forward position is the weakest on today’s slate. Only three players own a salary of at least $6,500 on FanDuel, and one of those players is currently questionable (Kyle Kuzma).
That said, Jayson Tatum deserves some attention. He’s priced fairly across the industry and has an excellent matchup vs. the Los Angeles Lakers. They’ve played at the fourth fastest pace this season and have allowed 115.2 points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break. Tatum leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games.
Value
Dario Saric isn’t seeing a ton of minutes for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a reliable DFS target recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games on DraftKings, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$500 over that time frame. He’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Wizards, who rank just 26th in defensive efficiency and 29th in team rebound rate this season.
Fast Break
Evan Turner missed the Blazers’ last game for personal reasons and is currently questionable for today’s game. His absence was would give Al-Farouq Aminu a large boost in value. He played 37.5 minutes in their most recent contest and would be a candidate to see 30+ minutes again today. He’s in a wonderful spot vs. the Suns, who have been the worst rebounding team in the league this season.
Center
Stud
It’s hard not to like Karl-Anthony Towns on today’s slate. He’s coming off an awful performance in his last game but was limited to just 28.7 minutes before fouling out. He had a difficult matchup vs. Andre Drummond and the Pistons, and he has a much friendlier matchup today vs. the Wizards.
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
Towns had scored at least 55.5 DraftKings points in each of his five previous matchups before Wednesday’s clunker, and he went for more than 70 DraftKings points in three of those contests. He’s a particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $10,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He also leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Dewayne Dedmon is doubtful for today’s contest vs. the Nets, which makes Alex Len one of the most appealing value options on the slate. He’s been a nice source of value when given the chance to play extended minutes thanks to his average of 1.07 FanDuel points per minute this season.
The Nets have also been crushed by opposing centers all season, giving Len an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.54 on FanDuel. He’s way too cheap at $4,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Fast Break
Towns has the highest upside at the center position, but Jusuf Nurkic looks like the best pure value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s in a potential smash spot vs. the Suns. He’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season and has played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past two games.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Hawks center Alex Len
Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
