The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook headlines the PG position today, and he’s playing on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Clippers. He played 40 minutes yesterday in an overtime win over the Blazers but was ultimately limited to a Plus/Minus of -6.93 on DraftKings. Scoring wasn’t an issue in that contest — he put up 37 points and shot 14-28 from the field — but he recorded an uncharacteristically low seven rebounds and three assists. Westbrook ranks first in the league in assists per game and 11th in the league in rebounds per game, so expect those numbers to rise in tonight’s contest.
The Clippers and Thunder both play at a top-10 pace, and the resulting over/under of 237.5 points is the top mark on this slate. Westbrook is particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s an extremely safe target for cash games given his Consistency Rating of 90% over the past month and 93% over the past year.
Value
Injuries continue to mount for the Pelicans. Jrue Holiday has been their only constant this season, but he’ll miss at least the next 7-10 days with a lower abdominal strain.
That leaves Elfrid Payton to pick up the slack at the PG position. He’s averaged a strong 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models. That combination of production and playing time makes him a steal at $5,000 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Pelicans, Frank Jackson is a candidate to replace Holiday in the starting lineup, and he’s coming off 28 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s priced $200 above the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and anyone with that kind of playing time potential is appealing at that price tag.
Kemba Walker has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, but he’s in an excellent bounce back spot against the Wizards. They’ve struggled defensively all season, giving Walker an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.20 on DraftKings. Walker has also played big minutes as the Hornets make a push for the Eastern Conference playoffs, and his projection of 37.5 minutes ranks second at the position on today’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden continues to handle a ridiculous workload on a night-to-night basis. He struggled in his last game, posting a Plus/Minus of -7.93, but that was to be expected in a brutal matchup against Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors. That said, he did post a usage rate of 44.2%, which paints an optimistic picture for Harden moving forward.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13).
He’s in a better spot against the 76ers, who have played at the seventh fastest pace this season. The Rockets’ resulting implied team total of 119.75 ranks fourth on the slate. Harden has also seen a price decrease of -$1,200 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $11,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Gary Harris has seen his playing time slowly increase since returning from an injury on Feb. 22, culminating with 29.8 minutes in his most recent contest. He scored 35.5 DraftKings points in that game, which makes him an appealing target at $4,000. Harris has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to return value pretty easily if he sees another boost in playing time.
Fast Break
The Clippers’ implied team total of 120.0 ranks second on the slate, which puts Lou Williams on the radar for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, but Williams is always capable of putting up a monster performance. He has played at least 28 minutes in four of his past five games, which is an encouraging sign for his fantasy prospects moving forward.
DraftKings is loaded with strong values at the SG position, which means it’s much tougher to find a discount on FanDuel. That said, Evan Fournier is one player who fits that description. His $5,800 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 82%, and he’s scored at least 30.6 FanDuel points in seven of his past 10 games.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is coming off one of his worst games of the season, scoring just 21.4 FanDuel points in 31 minutes. That’s caused his price tag to drop to $9,200 on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting buy-low candidate against the Nuggets. Durant hasn’t been priced that cheaply very often but has historically crushed in those situations, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.04 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). Expectations should still be tempered with the Warriors back at full strength, but Durant is simply too cheap at the moment.
Value
Ricky Rubio is not expected to play against the Grizzlies, which makes Royce O’Neale one of the strongest values of the day. He’s priced at $3,300 on DraftKings and the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models. O’Neale has thrived in games with Rubio, Dante Exum, and Raul Neto all out of the lineup this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.3 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Ben Simmons popped up on the injury report with an illness and is officially questionable for tonight’s contest against the Rockets. The 76ers are already without Joel Embiid, so his absence would leave Philly without two of their top players.
Pictured: 76ers SG Jimmy Butler, Photo Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA Today Sports
Jimmy Butler has been the prime beneficiary with both players off the court since the team acquired Tobias Harris, seeing a usage bump of +7.4% and averaging 1.36 DraftKings points per minute. He’d be close to a must play on DraftKings if Simmons is ultimately ruled out given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Kenrich Williams is another potential source of value on the Pelicans. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of his past two games, and could see a few additional minutes on this slate.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle is going to have to carry a big workload for the Pelicans against the Raptors. Holiday is out, Nikola Mirotic is playing for the Bucks, and Anthony Davis is expected to play only 20 minutes or so. Randle has seen a usage bump of +8.4% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.37 DraftKings points per minute. He’s been a nice value over his past 10 games to begin with, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.56 on DraftKings, and his value only figures to increase with Holiday out of the lineup.
Value
Marvin Williams has been a steady producer on DraftKings recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 88% over the past month. That said, his salary has actually decreased by -$200 over that time frame, and his current $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s also in an excellent spot against the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.40.
Fast Break
Blake Griffin is one of the best high-priced values on the slate on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82%. His 12 Pro Trends rank second at the position, and he has a nice matchup against the Bulls. They rank just 25th in defensive efficiency, and the Pistons’ implied team total of 111.5 represents a significant increase when compared to their season average (107.8).
The Raptors’ frontcourt is going to be a very inconsistent source of value given their depth, but Serge Ibaka has strong upside at his current salary for GPPs. He’s priced at $5,500 on FanDuel and is coming off 44.0 FanDuel points in his most recent game. The Raptors’ implied team total of 119.75 also ranks third on the slate.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has somewhat quietly been one of the best values in fantasy recently. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.23 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and is coming off a dominant performance against the Timberwolves in his last outing. He remains very reasonably priced on DraftKings, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
He’s in one of the best spots of the day against the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.80. He would also likely see a boost in value if backup center Zaza Pachulia is ruled out (currently questionable). Drummond scored 59.5 DraftKings points in his last matchup against the Bulls, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Cody Zeller is underpriced at $5,700 on FanDuel for today’s matchup against the Nets. They’ve struggled against opposing centers this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.36. Zeller has averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 29 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s scored at least 26.3 FanDuel points in each of his three previous meetings against the Nets.
Fast Break
The best matchup at the position belongs to Steven Adams, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.17 vs. the Clippers. He’s also posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games, and his $6,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Clint Capela has seen a salary decrease of -$600 over the past month on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting buy-low option against the 76ers. Their frontcourt is hampered by injuries at the moment, and he’ll likely spend the majority of his minutes being guarded by the unintimidating combo of Amir Johnson and Jonah Bolden. Kenneth Faried will also miss his fourth straight game, and Capela has seen at least 34 minutes in each of three previous games with Faried out of the lineup.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Pistons center Andre Drummond
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
