The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young is the highest-priced PG today on both DraftKings and FanDuel after seeing a massive price increase over the past month. That said, he’s been worth every penny of his salary recently. He’s averaged 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark at the position, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.90 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He was limited to 25.9 FanDuel points in his last game, but he did that in just 18 minutes before getting tossed for a bogus technical foul.
Young is in an appealing spot today vs. the Miami Heat, who have ranked just 24th in defensive efficiency over the past two months. The Hawks have also scored at least 120 points in five of their past six games, so their current implied team total of 106.0 points feels low. Young leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%.
Value
Rajon Rondo struggled in his last game, scoring just 18.0 DraftKings points while shooting 1-of-10 from the field, but he remains underpriced across the industry for today’s matchup vs. the Clippers. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 33.5 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Jalen Brunson has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.84 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has actually decreased by $500 over the past month, which makes him a strong target at just $3,800 on today’s slate. He also has a strong matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.55.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the better values at the position on FanDuel at $4,300. He’s scored at least 21.7 FanDuel points in each of his past three games and has played at least 29 minutes in each of his past two. The game between the Clippers and Lakers also figures to be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective given the slate-high over/under of 234.5 points.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Jazz have somewhat quietly been one of the best teams in basketball for the past two months, owning a 16-5 record and outscoring opponents by an average of 6.3 points per 100 possessions over their past 21 games. Donovan Mitchell has been a huge part of their success, and he’s coming off a whopping 65.75 DraftKings points in a huge win vs. the Bucks in his last outing. He has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the New Orleans Pelicans – Utah’s implied team total of 119.75 ranks third on the slate – and his $8,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Kent Bazemore has been a strong producer this season, averaging 1.0 FanDuel points per minute, but has struggled to earn consistent playing time. That shouldn’t be a problem today with Taurean Prince ruled out for personal reasons. Baze is currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.74 on FanDuel with a comparable minutes projection (per the Trends tool). He’s a particularly strong option today on FanDuel, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
Bogdan Bogdanovic finally failed to post a positive Plus/Minus in his last game, but there’s no reason not to go right back to the well with him. He still played over 35 minutes in that contest, which is a good sign for his potential moving forward, and he has an elite matchup tonight vs. the New York Knicks. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Kings’ implied team total of 120.25 ranks second on the slate. Bogdanovic also remains underpriced on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Lou Williams has failed to post a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games on DraftKings, which makes him an interesting buy-low option on today’s slate. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has the potential to blow up tonight vs. the Lakers.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has been one of the safest contributors in fantasy recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.06 over his past 10 games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past seven contests and has taken on a massive workload with the Lakers making their final push for the playoffs. He’s currently projected for 39.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which is tied for the top mark on the slate. LeBron is basically a lock for cash games on DraftKings, where his $11,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Value
Jae Crowder is one of the top values of the day at just $4,200 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Crowder has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.97 with a comparable salary this season. He’s logged at least 31 minutes in two of his past three games and should benefit from an excellent matchup vs. the Pelicans.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s still playing reduced minutes, but that didn’t stop him from recording 76.8 FanDuel points in his most recent contest. The Bucks’ implied team total of 123.25 is also the top mark on today’s slate. He offers similar upside to LeBron but should command a fraction of the ownership.
DeAndre Bembry is a nice value option on DraftKings, where his $3,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games, and his role should be solid with Prince out of the lineup.
Power Forward
Stud
The PF position is one of the weaker ones on today’s slate, but Montrezl Harrell could provide stud-like production at a reduced cost. He’s priced at just $6,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, but has averaged a stout 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s been playing around 30 minutes per game recently, giving him huge upside in a juicy matchup vs. the Lakers. They’ve struggled against opposing big men all season, giving Harrell an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.60.
Value
Noah Vonleh has seen his production fluctuate all season, but he’s on an upswing at the moment. He’s scored at least 29.0 FanDuel points in each of his past two games, and would likely see another solid workload if DeAndre Jordan is unable to suit up (currently questionable). He’s an elite target on FanDuel, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Fast Break
Dwight Powell has both PF and C eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s one of the best options of the day regardless of where you play him. He’s played big minutes recently, seeing at least 32 minutes in each of his past three games, and has averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s also in an elite matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.45.
Cheick Diallo could be in for a big workload tonight for the New Orleans Pelicans. Jahlil Okafor has already been ruled out, while Anthony Davis is currently questionable. That would leave just Diallo and Julius Randle to handle the majority of the PF and C minutes, and Diallo has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert played just 19.5 minutes yesterday vs. the Bucks, but he’s in a much better spot for success today vs. the Pelicans. They’ve struggled against centers all season, and they’ve been even worse with Davis out of the lineup or playing limited minutes. Gobert crushed the Pelicans in their first meeting this season, scoring 54.0 DraftKings points in 31.5 minutes. His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Alex Len moved into the starting lineup in the Hawks’ last game and will likely draw another start if he’s active today. He’s scored at least 45.5 FanDuel points in each of his past two contests, and his $3,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Fast Break
JaVale McGee has averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is coming off 25.8 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.62 on FanDuel.
Jakob Poeltl has seen a nice bump in minutes recently. He’s played at least 26 minutes in each of his past two games, and Poeltl has averaged 1.15 DraftKings per minute over his past month. He’s a particularly strong target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Jazz C Rudy Gobert
Photo Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
