Can’t wait a full week for NBA DFS to return? Don’t worry, you can still get your fix with the NBA Rising Stars game on Friday night.
This game kicks off the NBA All-Star Weekend festivities and features two teams comprised of 10 rookies and sophomores each. It’s featured a lot of formats over the years, but the current iteration is Team U.S. against Team World. Team U.S. is currently a 4.5-point favorite, and the total sits at 282.5.
On the surface, this game does seem largely unpredictable. Most players will see between 15 and 25 minutes, with some of the bigger names serving as possible exceptions.
Over the past three games, only Kristaps Porzingis cracked the 30-minute mark, and Andrew Wiggins just missed it at 29.5. Only two other players have approached the same level of playing time in the past decade: Damian Lillard in 2014 and DeJuan Blair in 2010 (lol). Jayson Tatum led all players with just over 26 minutes last season, while Joel Embiid was the only player to see less than 12.
With playing time mostly equal, it’s going to come down to how shots are distributed.
That said, there do appear to be a few trends from the past few years that we can use to gain an edge in this format. Let’s dive in.
The Format
Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) for this game, but each site features a slightly different format.
DraftKings features its Showdown format, where you select one captain and five utility players. Your captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but his salary will also be 1.5x more expensive.
FanDuel’s format is a little more complicated. You only have to choose five players, but you have to select one captain (2x scoring), one star (1.5x scoring), one pro (1.2x scoring) and two utilities. Most players will likely choose to put their highest-salaried players in the premium roster positions, so fading some of the big names at captain should increase your chances for a unique lineup.
The Strategy
Like most all-star games, defense is optional in this contest.
This game has produced an average of 293.7 points per game the past three seasons, although the scoring did decline a bit last year. Still, given that this contest is only 40 minutes, that’s a ridiculous amount of offense. The teams have unsurprisingly shot well from the field, with only one team shooting worse than 56% over the past three games. (The World shot 51.4% last season.) That’s limited the number of available rebounds, which does somewhat decrease the value of the big men in this contest.
You can forget about blocks, too: Donovan Mitchell is the only player to record more than one over the past three seasons. Basically, the majority of the fantasy scoring in this game is going to come from actual scoring.
Another factor that pushes the needle in the direction of guards is how the points in this game have increasingly been scored. When they changed the format to Team U.S. vs. Team World three years ago, the two teams combined to shoot just 52 3-pointers. That number increased to 84 in 2016, 95 in 2017 then 96 last season.
Teams are shooting more 3s than ever in regular-season NBA games, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see these teams crack the triple-digit mark on Friday night.
The sheer volume of 3-pointers obviously increases the value for guys that are prolific from long range. Here are the top-scoring players from the past three years:
- Buddy Hield (2018): 29 points, five-3 pointers made
- Bogdan Bogdanovic (2018): 26 points, seven 3-pointers made
- Jaylen Brown (2018): 35 points, three 3-pointers made
- Jamal Murray (2017): 36 points, nine 3-pointers made
- Frank Kaminsky (2017): 33 points, nine 3-pointers made
- Hield (2017): 28 points, three 3-pointers made
- Emmanuel Mudiay (2016): 30 points, five 3-pointers made
- Kristaps Porzingis (2016): 30 points, five 3-pointers made
- Zach LaVine (2016): 30 points, two 3-pointers made
- Andrew Wiggins (2016): 29 points, zero 3-pointers made
It seems like you really want guys who can fill it up from deep, especially on DraftKings given the 0.5-point bonus for 3-pointers. Otherwise, you’re going to want to target elite athletes capable of putting on a show with their dunking ability. Guys who can’t do either appear to be the types you want to avoid.
The Rosters
Team U.S.
De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kevin Knox, Marvin Bagley, Kyle Kuzma, Jayson Tatum, John Collins, Jarrett Allen
This team appears to be providing some value in the backcourt with Fox, Mitchell and Young serving as the only true guards on the roster. Fox and Mitchell will both be playing in this game for the second time and will be looking to bounce back from disappointing performances last season: Fox tallied just four points in 16.2 minutes, while Mitchell tallied seven in 23.
Overall, neither player seems like an ideal fit for this contest given their struggles scoring the ball from deep.
Young is the more appealing candidate, and he’s also pretty reasonably priced across the industry. He’s going to get his shots up, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him launch a few from way down town. He’s been one of the best fantasy producers in this game on a per-minute basis over the past month, and his style of play should fit right in to an exhibition format.
Things are a little murkier in the frontcourt. Tatum, Kuzma and Knox will likely handle the majority of the minutes on the wing. Knox is a clear third option for this group after replacing Lonzo Ball due to injury. Knox has had an up-and-down rookie season, and he’ll likely see one of the smallest workloads in this contest.
Credit: Gary Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jayson Tatum
Tatum and Kuzma are both capable scorers who can also score the ball from deep. Tatum ranked third on Team U.S. in shots in last year’s game, while Kuzma ranked second. Kuzma got up 18 shot attempts in fewer than 19 minutes, so he definitely seems like the kind of high-usage player you want to target in this contest. He’s the second-most expensive player on DraftKings — which is a fair price for him — but just the 11th-most expensive player on FanDuel. He’s a strong choice for the MVP spot.
That leaves Bagley, Collins, Jackson Jr. and Allen as the center options for Team U.S. They’re likely to split minutes, which makes it tough to trust any of them. Collins is an easy fade for me.
He’s one of the most expensive options on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he managed just eight shot attempts and three rebounds in 23 minutes in last year’s contest. He was the only true center option on the team in that game, so I don’t see much room for improvement for him given increased competition for minutes.
Jackson Jr. is the most appealing option of the quartet, particularly on DraftKings. He’s the second-cheapest member of Team U.S. — only Knox is cheaper — and he has shown the ability to knock down shots from deep. Bagley could be interesting as well: He doesn’t necessarily shoot the ball as well as Jackson, but he’s been more of a high-usage player during the regular season.
Team World
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Okogie, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Luka Doncic, Ben Simmons, Cedi Osman, Rodions Kurucs, OG Anunoby, DeAndre Ayton
The World team has the lower implied team total, but they’re the more appealing team to target in my opinion.
For starters, Kurucs could be extremely limited in this contest after sitting out the Nets’ final game before the all-star break. A team with nine players obviously carries more appeal than a team with 10 players in an exhibition format where the minutes are distributed pretty evenly.
It also wouldn’t be shocking to see guys like Anunoby and Okogie see limited playing time in favor of the bigger names on the roster. Anunoby has barely played for the Raptors this season, so his inclusion in this game is a little perplexing.
If anyone in this game figures to see around 30 minutes of playing time, there’s a good chance it’s happening on the World team.
Simmons and Doncic are the clear headliners tonight. Simmons was one of the best fantasy assets in this game last year, but it’s fair to wonder if he can repeat that performance today. He put up just five shots in that contest but managed to hand out 13 assists and grab four steals. There’s a good chance he won’t spend nearly as much time as a distributor in this game, especially since he’s playing in the main event on Sunday. I like the idea of fading him.
Doncic is the most expensive player in this game on both sites, and it’s hard to argue against him. He’s been phenomenal for the Mavericks since they traded away Dennis Smith Jr. and has the type of skill set that fits this game perfectly. The bottom line is that Doncic is a special player, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him put up a special performance.
The backcourt is rounded out by Gilgeous-Alexander and Bogdanovic, who was the MVP of this contest last season.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Bogdanovic nailed seven triples in that contest, so he obviously has the potential to have a big performance tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander is more of a question mark. He’s known more as an athlete than a shooter, so he’d have to have a Simmons-like performance to be a big time producer. I don’t really see that happening.
Markkanen and Osman are both really intriguing options in the frontcourt.
Markkanen scored 15 points in this contest last year and could see a few additional minutes as a sophomore. He’s shooting 38.3% from 3-point range this season, so he can definitely do some damage from downtown.
Osman is one of my favorite punt plays. He offers more offensive potential than guys like Okogie and Anunoby, and he could also see plenty of playing time if Kurucs is unable to suit up. His shooting numbers have declined badly for the Cavs this season, but he’s been forced into a larger offensive role than expected given the injury to Kevin Love. I don’t doubt his ability to knock down an open 3-pointer, which he should see plenty of in this contest.
Last but certainly not least is Ayton, who might be my favorite play in this game. He’s the only true center on the World roster, and we already mentioned that the US team has a lot of size. That could lead to a healthy amount of playing time for Ayton in this contest.
Ayton was also the first pick in the draft last year — ahead of guys like Doncic and Young — so he obviously possesses immense talent as well. He’s only taken four 3-point attempts during the regular season, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him put a couple up in tonight’s exhibition. He should also be active on lob attempts in on the glass, and he’s very reasonably priced across the industry.
