At FantasyLabs, we believe that we have the best tools and data available to those who play daily fantasy sports. We also realize that these tools and data are only as beneficial as our ability to communicate their functionality and worth.
With this in mind, our “Trend of the Day” series features articles that walk subscribers through an important trend each weekday, created with our Trends tool. Also, shortly after you create a trend, you will be able to see it under the “My Trends” column in our Player Model tools.
MLB Trend of the Day: DraftKings Mid-Priced Pro Trend Pitchers
On DraftKings, DFS players often need to find (relative) salary relief from their second pitchers so that they can also fit strong batters into their lineups. We could go through the effort of creating several individual trends capable of highlighting decent, mid-priced pitchers, but why should we do that when we could save a lot of time by focusing (at least at first) on the Pro Trends?
Step 1: Player Filters > Salary > “4,000 to 8,000”
In looking to save money on our second pitcher, we are forcing ourselves to consider players who historically underperform per our Plus/Minus metric. These pitchers aren’t horrible, but they aren’t likely to exceed their salary-adjusted expectations in an extreme way.
But what if we focus on inexpensive pitchers blessed with high Pro Trend Ratings?
Step 2: Trends > Pro Trends Rating > “67 to 99”
If we look at mid-priced pitchers who in regards to Pro Trends are in the top one-third of all historical pitchers, then we have a cohort of pitchers whom we probably shouldn’t be too hesitant to use.
Let’s look at the current matches.
Current Matches
Alex Wood is intriguing in that he has a Bargain Rating of 87 percent. Similarly, Alfredo Simon has a Bargain Rating of 92 percent. Adam Conley has a home-plate umpire in Hal Gibson III who historically is friendly to pitchers. And Marcus Stroman’s 0.977 WHIP is the second-lowest in the All-Day slate.
Of the five current matches, Ervin Santana might be the only one I would totally avoid on DK, given his atrocious Bargain Rating of 14 percent. Additionally, Santana’s salary has increased by $1,300 over the last fantasy month — an increase that historically results in a negative Plus/Minus. Finally, as I write this (at 7:00 AM ET), the MIN-MIL game has a 49 percent chance of precipitation, and I like to avoid pitchers (especially in cash games) who might have their outings shortened by rain delays.
The Takeaway
Going cheap at the pitcher position is a risky, albeit a sometimes necessary proposition. If you are going to spend less on your second pitcher, using a guy with a high Pro Trends Rating is a good way to mitigate your risk. At the same time, you don’t just blindly accept any player who matches for a trend you’ve created. You still need to find pitchers who don’t have a multitude of red flags.
Good luck!
