The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has somewhat quietly been a fantasy monster over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.54 on DraftKings. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.64 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, resulting in a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over that time frame. That said, his salary has actually decreased by -$700 over that time frame, and his current $11,000 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Westbrook leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings and looks like one of the safest options to pay up for on this slate.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Tyler Johnson looks like one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. He’s priced at $4,200, giving him a Bargain Rating 98%.
Johnson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games and should continue to see plenty of playing time for as long as Goran Dragic is sidelined.
Fast Break
The Jazz are in one of the best spots of the day against the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. Their resulting implied team total of 118.75 is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin.
Ricky Rubio has played limited minutes since returning from an injury, but he’s made up for it by averaging 1.09 FanDuel points per minute. He has arguably the best individual matchup at the position, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.03.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Paul
Chris Paul will likely garner minimal ownership on this slate, which makes him an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He will reportedly see increased minutes against the Nuggets, and his salary has decreased by -$1,200 over the past month on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden just recorded one of the most incredible months of basketball we’ve ever seen. He averaged a ridiculous 43.6 points per game during the month of January and also managed to chip in 8.7 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game. The result is an average of 73.82 DraftKings points per game, good for an average Plus/Minus of +8.96 (per our Trends tool).
Harden has maintained his elite production even with Paul back in the lineup, scoring 71.75 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. That said, Harden does carry some risk on this slate.
Even though his overall numbers have still been excellent, his per-minute production has decreased when sharing the court with Paul since he returned from injury. If Paul is going to play more on Friday, that will likely cap Harden’s ceiling.
Harden is also in a difficult spot against the Nuggets, who have been one of the few teams to slow Harden down recently, limiting him to “just” 64.75 DraftKings points over nearly 40 minutes in their last meeting. That would still be enough for him to hit five times value on his current salary, but there are better values available on this slate.
Value
The Knicks are going to be a really popular source of value on this slate. None of the players they acquired in Thursday’s blockbuster trade are expected to play, and they’re also going to be without Emmanuel Mudiay and Frank Ntilikina.
One of the most obvious candidates to see a bigger role is Allonzo Trier. He’s been a strong option recently, averaging 0.88 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his current $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Damyean Dotson is another viable option for the Knicks, and he’s definitely the more appealing choice on DraftKings. Trier is priced up at $5,400, and Dotson is more than $1,500 cheaper at $3,700. He hasn’t been as productive on a per-minute basis but is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
All of the Knicks’ value could make Monte Morris a bit of a forgotten man. He dominated in his last game, scoring 44.9 FanDuel points in approximately 40 minutes of playing time with Jamal Murray out of the lineup. Murray remains out against the Rockets, and Morris’ $4,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Photo Credit: Russell Isabella-USA Today Sports, Pictured: Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell is coming off a poor outing in his last contest, which makes this an excellent buy-low opportunity. He has an elite matchup against the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.72, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied with Harden for the most at the position on FanDuel. He’s also underpriced on FanDuel at $8,800, giving him a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George stands out in his own tier at the SF position. He’s priced at $11,400 on FanDuel, which makes him nearly $5,000 more expensive than the second-highest priced player at the position.
That said, $11,400 is a lot of money for George. It’s the highest he’s been priced all season and represents a salary change of +$1,400 over the past month. In general, paying up for players when their salary is at its highest is a –EV strategy in NBA DFS.
Still, there is a lot of value available, and George gives you the highest ceiling and floor at the position by a wide margin. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. It might make some sense to roster him in cash games if you can afford him, but he doesn’t appear to offer much upside for GPPs at his current price tag.
Value
The Knicks have a pair of appealing SF options on this slate. They’re clearly playing for the future at this point, and no one on the roster at the moment is more important for their future than Kevin Knox. He should see all the playing time he can handle moving forward and has averaged a respectable 0.79 FanDuel points per minute with Hardaway Jr. and Mudiay off the court this season.
Knox is priced at $5,000 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Mario Hezonja is even cheaper across the industry and has been the better fantasy producer recently, averaging 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him a steal at his current salary.
Fast Break
Justise Winslow has seen has salary come down to a very reasonable $5,800 on DraftKings for Friday’s matchup against the Thunder after peaking at $7,100 two weeks ago. He’s scored at least 32 DraftKings points in two of his past three games and is in the top pace-up spot of the day.
Bruno Caboclo was a major bust for the Raptors but has found new life with the Grizzlies recently. He’s coming off 31.5 minutes in his most recent contest and could see more playing time if either Mike Conley or Jaren Jackson Jr. is unable to suit up (both players are currently listed as questionable).
Either way, Caboclo seems locked into the Grizzlies rotation at the moment and is dirt cheap at $3,400 on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Stud
Kenneth Faried wasn’t even on the Rockets two weeks ago, but he’s developed into one of their most important players.
Faried has been a reliable source of fantasy production as well, scoring at least 33.5 DraftKings points in each of his past four games. He’s currently projected for 36.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him a reliable option despite an increased price tag across the industry.
Value
Luke Kornet is expected to return from injury today and will likely rejoin the Knicks’ starting lineup. He’s been awesome when given the chance to play big minutes recently, scoring at least 32 DraftKings points in each of the past five games where he’s played at least 27 minutes. There’s no guarantee that he sees that much playing time coming off an injury, but he still seems way too cheap at $4,300 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap has seen a pretty substantial price decrease across the industry over the past month but has displayed a nice ceiling recently. He’s scored at least 30 FanDuel points in two of his past four games, and that kind of production would make him a nice value at his current salary.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is a freak of nature. He’s arguably the greatest passing big man in the history of the NBA and has recorded triple-doubles in three of his past five games. He’s in a nice spot against the Rockets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.64 on DraftKings, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Pictured: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, Photo Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Jokic’s ceiling is just as high as Westbrook’s and Harden’s, and it’s possible to pair two of them together given all the value available on this slate.
Value
You probably don’t want to pay down too far at the center position.
No one really pops from a value perspective, but Nerlens Noel is definitely worth a look if Steven Adams is unable to suit up. He’s crushed in two games without Adams this season, scoring 38.9 and 55.0 FanDuel points, and he remains affordable across the industry. His matchup against the Heat isn’t particularly appealing, but he’s simply too cheap if he’s going to draw another start.
Fast Break
Marc Gasol is in an interesting spot against the Hornets. He could see a few additional minutes if Jackson Jr. is ultimately ruled out, while Conley being ruled out would likely result in a higher usage rate.
Gasol is a nice value on FanDuel, where his 61% is the top mark among high-priced center options.
Rudy Gobert is in a potential smash spot against the Hawks, who have been crushed by opposing centers all season. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04 on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Rockets PF Kenneth Faried
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
