The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is the third-most expensive player on the slate on DraftKings, but that doesn’t stop him from being one of the best pure values. His $10,600 salary represents a decrease of -$500 over the past month and results in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Westbrook has been an excellent value with a comparable salary this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.71 (per our Trends tool). He leads the PG position with 14 Pro Trends and should be a staple of cash game lineups.
Value
The Pelicans are going to be extremely shorthanded with Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic and E’Twuan Moore all already ruled out.
Elfrid Payton figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with all four players off the court this season and scored 45.0 DraftKings points in that situation two games ago. He’s coming off a down performance against the Spurs in his last contest, but Tuesday’s matchup against the Rockets should be much friendlier: They currently rank just 24th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
The Suns are also dealing with a ton of injuries. T.J. Warren and De’Anthony Melton have been ruled out against the Spurs, while Deandre Ayton is considered doubtful. That should give Elie Okobo a solid boost in playing time. Okobo is currently projected for 27.5 minutes and has averaged a respectable 0.77 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s an appealing target at $3,500 on DraftKings.
Pictured: Los Angeles Lakers guard Rajon Rondo (9), Photo Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Sticking with the theme of shorthanded teams, the Lakers will be without LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma and Lonzo Ball against the 76ers. Rajon Rondo will likely facilitate the offense in their absence and is coming off 42.5 minutes in their most recent game. He’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute with James, Kuzma and Ball off the court this season, giving him big upside at $6,900.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is a really fascinating player on this slate. On one hand, the return of Chris Paul did very little to hurt his fantasy stock in their most recent contest. Harden still posted a usage rate of 45.4%, resulting in 71.75 DraftKings points against the Magic. He’s also in a dream spot against the Pelicans, who have allowed a dreadful 115.3 points per 100 possessions with Davis off the court this season. The Rockets’ resulting implied team total of 122.5 is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin.
That said, Harden is just so much more expensive than every other player on the slate.
Paul also figures to get more involved with the offense as he gets further removed from his injury. He was limited to just 25 minutes in his first game back, and Harden shared the court with him for just 14 minutes. That number will undoubtedly increase as Paul’s playing time increases, and Harden has averaged a mortal 1.52 DraftKings points per minute in that situation.
Overall, Harden still offers the highest raw projections on the slate, but it seems like there are better values available.
Value
If you do want to target the Rockets — and I think that’s a good idea — Eric Gordon is a much more reasonable target at $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday could very easily be considered a stud for the shorthanded Pelicans. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.69 DraftKings points per minute with Davis, Randle, Mirotic and Moore off the court this season, albeit over just 66 total minutes. The only real concern is the blowout potential against the Rockets, as the Pelicans are currently listed as 11-point underdogs.
Alec Burks looks like a nice potential source of value on FanDuel. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.68 over his past 10 games and has scored at least 25.9 FanDuel points in each of his past three games. He’s priced at $5,100 in an excellent matchup against the Wizards, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has put together a nice little stretch recently, scoring at least 52.5 DraftKings points in nine of his past 10 games. He’s been one of the most reliable options at the position over the past month, posting a Consistency Rating of 90%, and his average of 1.80 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame trails only Harden’s on this slate.
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The bigger question is how much upside he has against the Pistons. He’s scored 34.0, 57.0 and 42.0 DraftKings points in three previous outings against Detroit. He was limited to 26.5 or fewer minutes in the first and third matchups, which the Bucks won by an average of 23 points. The Bucks are only favored by 7.5 points, which provides some optimism that the Pistons can keep this game competitive.
If Giannis sees more than 35 minutes of playing time, he could easily be the highest scoring player on the slate.
Value
Darius Miller should see a large workload today for the shorthanded Pelicans, which makes him an appealing target at $3,700 on DraftKings. He’s averaged a pedestrian 0.60 DraftKings points per minute this season, but that number has increased to 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in 80 minutes without Davis, Randle, Mirotic and Moore.
Fast Break
Michael Beasley is expected to enter the Lakers’ starting lineup in place of Kuzma, and he can flat out get buckets when he’s on the court. That’s a big part of the reason why he’s averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
There are plenty of value options available on this slate, but Beasley possess one of the highest ceilings from a points per dollar perspective at his current price tag.
The Spurs have one of the best matchups of the day against the Suns, who rank 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. Their resulting implied team total of 119.0 ranks second on the slate. They will also be without DeMar DeRozan for the third straight game, which makes them a team you definitely want some exposure to.
Rudy Gay is one of the Spurs’ most appealing options and has posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.9% with DeRozan off the court this season and has averaged 34.6 DraftKings points per game in three games with DeRozan out of the lineup. He’s a bargain at $5,900 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel.
Power Forward
Stud
Sticking with the Spurs, it’s hard not to love LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s seen the biggest bump in usage with DeRozan off the court, resulting in an average of 1.49 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also crushed in three games without DeRozan this season, averaging 47.33 DraftKings points and a +21.33 Plus/Minus.
He also benefits from an elite matchup against the Suns, who have been abysmal against opposing big men this season. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 on FanDuel, which is the top mark at the position. Aldridge is slightly more expensive than usual at $8,700 on DraftKings and $8,800 on FanDuel, but he has a massive ceiling if this game stays competitive.
Value
Kenneth Faried has been a savior for the Rockets, who were extremely thin in the frontcourt after losing Clint Capela to an injury. Faried has been a savior for fantasy owners as well, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +8.27 in all four games as a member of the Rockets. He’s seen at least 36 minutes in each of his past two contests and has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Faried is too cheap at $6,300 on DraftKings, especially given his excellent matchup against the depleted Pelicans’ frontcourt.
Fast Break
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has seen a larger role in each of his past two games and has responded with an average of 29.0 DraftKings points per game. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so the increase in production is not all that surprising given his increase in playing time.
He could lose some playing time with Treveon Graham expected to return to the lineup, but he’s still projected for 23.8 minutes in our NBA Models. That would make him an excellent value at $3,800 on DraftKings.
Aaron Gordon could be a sneaky target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He has a difficult matchup on paper against the Thunder, but they’ve quietly ranked 20th in the league in defensive efficiency since the beginning of January. They could also be without Steven Adams, and their defense has unsurprisingly been worse with their starting center off the court this season.
Gordon has seen a salary decrease of -$1,100 over his past 10 games on FanDuel but has scored at least 37.0 fantasy points in each of his past two games.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid got the night off during the 76ers last game but is fully expected to return to the lineup against the Lakers.
Jasen Vinlove- USA Today Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid (21).
Embiid has been an excellent value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.84 on DraftKings, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.80 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in an elite spot against the Lakers, who have hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing big men all season. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81 on DraftKings, where his $10,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
If Adams is unable to suit up, Nerlens Noel becomes one of the strongest values across the industry. He’s been an excellent fantasy producer this season, averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute, and he scored 52.75 DraftKings points in the only game that Adams has missed this season.
Fast Break
Jahlil Okafor has found new life with the Pelicans this season. He’s been dominant over his past four games, averaging 40.1 DraftKings points per game. He’s priced at a discount at $6,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Ivica Zubac exploded for 53.2 FanDuel points in his last contest and should continue to see extended playing time for the shorthanded Lakers. He has a much tougher matchup against Embiid and the 76ers, but he’s hard to ignore at $5,800 on FanDuel.
He’s averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his 60% Bargain Rating is one of the better marks at the position.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Spurs PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge
Photo Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
