The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the New York Knicks, who rank 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. They’re also playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, and the Hornets’ resulting implied team total of 116.5 points ranks fourth on the slate. Walker has been a poor fantasy asset over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.56 on FanDuel, but his salary has decreased by $700 over the past month. This is a nice opportunity to buy low on him.
Value
Kyrie Irving has been ruled out today for the Boston Celtics, which means Terry Rozier will almost certainly move into the starting lineup. He’s been excellent filling in for Irving this season, averaging 32.75 DraftKings points per game and a +10.7 Plus/Minus in six contests. He’s almost impossible to fade at just $4,500 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Trey Burke is in a position to command a ton of minutes today for the Knicks. They will be without both Emmanuel Mudiay and Frank Ntilikina, and Burke is currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him one of the best values of the day across the industry.
Fast Break
The Clippers have a juicy matchup today vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who rank first in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency this season. The Clippers’ implied team total of 119.25 is the top mark on the slate, so they are definitely a team to target.
They have two interesting options at the PG position. One is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is coming off 34.3 FanDuel points in his last game. He’s also seen a price decrease of $1,100 over the past month on FanDuel, and his current $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Patrick Beverley is slightly more expensive, but he’s averaged an outstanding Plus/Minus of +7.82 over his past 10 games. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.05 is also the top mark at the position.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the biggest surprises this season, compiling a 27-23 record and currently occupying the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference. D’Angelo Russell has been one of the biggest catalysts of their success, averaging a career-best 19.2 points and 6.4 assists per game. He’s been even better over the past month, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +1.94 on DraftKings.
Russell should be a big part of the Nets offense today with Spencer Dinwiddie out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 32.5 minutes, and Russell has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has a difficult matchup today vs. the Celtics, but his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.
Value
Jaylen Brown has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.28 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He also figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries from the absence of Irving. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +4.8% in games without Irving this season, resulting in an average of 1.03 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Lou Williams is always capable of putting up a big performance, which makes him an appealing option vs. the porous Hawks defense. He owns the highest ceiling projection at the position, and his $7,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Avery Bradley could be another member of the Clippers worth considering. He’s priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings and has scored at least 21.5 DraftKings points in each of his past five games. He should continue to see big minutes with Danilo Gallinari sidelined with an injury.
Small Forward
Stud
There’s a ton of value available on today’s slate, which makes paying up for Kevin Durant a pretty reasonable strategy. He’s coming off 50.3 FanDuel points in his most recent contest and has scored at least 40.2 FanDuel points in each of his past seven games. He’s seen a price decrease of $900 over the past month on FanDuel and has one of the safer floors for cash games.
Value
Taurean Prince played 34.5 minutes in his most recent contest and has averaged 0.90 Fanduel points per minute over the past month. That makes him too cheap at just $5,300 on FanDuel and results in a Bargain Rating of 81%. He could fly a bit under the radar with all the Celtics options, which makes him an appealing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fast Break
Speaking of the Celtics, Gordon Hayward has been one of their biggest beneficiaries in games without Irving this season. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.7% and has averaged 29.7 DraftKings points per game. He has nice upside at just $4,900 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel.
Tobias Harris is slightly cheaper than Durant across the industry, which might make him the preferred target for those paying up at the position. He has the superior matchup vs. the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.18 on FanDuel. He’s also seen a big boost in production in games without Gallinari this season, resulting in an average of 40.17 FanDuel points per game. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Power Forward
Stud
Montrezl Harrell hasn’t exactly dominated recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.33 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, but there are reasons for optimism moving forward. For starters, he’s playing relatively big minutes for the Clippers, logging at least 28 in four of his past five games. He’s averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he should start producing better results if he continues to see that much playing time.
He couldn’t ask for a better spot to break out than vs. the Hawks. They’ve been mediocre on the glass in addition to struggling on defense, giving Harrell a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.12 on FanDuel. He’s underpriced at just $7,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Value
Jayson Tatum is tough to pass up today on DraftKings, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.8% in games without Smart this season, resulting in an average of 32.92 DraftKings points per game.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis is coming off an awful game vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, which makes him an interesting buy-low target today vs. the Warriors. He’s seen one of the largest usage bumps on the team with Victor Oladipo off the court this season and has averaged 1.27 FanDuel points per minute. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel in one of the biggest pace-up spots on the slate.
Noah Vonleh is another interesting buy-low candidate. He struggled in his last game but racked up 49.75 in the game before that. He should continue to see plenty of minutes with the Knicks choosing to sit Enes Kanter in each of the past three games.
Center
Stud
There are tons of value options but a limited amount of studs on today’s slate, which should make Nikola Jokic a really popular target. He’s coming off a monster triple-double in his last game, resulting in 76.5 DraftKings points vs. the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s averaged 1.79 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin.
Unfortunately, he’s in a brutal spot today vs. the Memphis Grizzlies. They’ve played at the slowest pace in the league this season, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 106.0 is the third-lowest mark on the slate. Jokic has had mixed results vs. the Grizzlies this season, scoring 55.5 DraftKings points in one matchup and 21.75 DraftKings points in the other.
That said, the Nuggets’ current injury situation makes this spot a bit more appealing. They’re going to be without Jamal Murray, and Jokic increased his usage rate by +3.2% in his first game without Murray this season. He leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Al Horford has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who have been shredded by opposing centers all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.79 on DraftKings, and Horford has scored at least 44.5 DraftKings points in each of his past two games.
Fast Break
Myles Turner is an interesting GPP option today vs. the Warriors. He’s coming off a down game vs. the Grizzlies in his last outing but has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.9 on DraftKings in 11 games without Oladipo this season. The Warriors have also struggled vs. centers, giving Turner an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.68.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Nuggets C Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
