The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Mike Conley has been a disappointment recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -1.91 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, he has an elite matchup against the Kings, which makes this an excellent opportunity to buy low on him.
The Kings have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, which makes this one of the most extreme pace-up spots of the entire season. Conley and the rest of the Grizzlies will benefit from a pace differential (paceD) of +7.9, and Conley has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.20 in comparable pace-up situations (per our Trends tool).
He’s a particularly nice value at $7,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
The Suns are dealing with a laundry list of injuries. T.J. Warren, Deandre Ayton and De’Anthony Melton have all been ruled out against the Nuggets while Richaun Holmes is currently listed as questionable.
Elie Okobo seems like a prime candidate to replace Melton in the rotation and scored 25.75 DraftKings points in fewer than 28 minutes on Thursday against the Trail Blazers. The Suns are 16.5-point underdogs against the Nuggets as of writing (see live odds here), but Okobo’s minutes figure to be safe even in a blowout situation. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, which is tough to pass up.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker has posted an average Plus/Minus of -4.09 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, but he’s started to show some signs of life lately. He’s scored at least 39.1 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, and his current $8,800 salary represents a decrease of -$1,000 over the past month. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Pictured above: Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, Photo Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Jamal Murray is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He has an excellent matchup against the Suns, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency, and also has the potential for a few additional shot attempts with Nikola Jokic serving a one-game suspension.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden bounced back in a big way in his last game, torching the Knicks for a season-high 97.25 DraftKings points in 40 minutes. He continues to absolutely dominate the basketball for the Rockets, posting a usage rate of at least 41.9% in each of his past eight games and a usage rate of at least 50.6% in three of his past five games. That level of usage is basically unheard of in the NBA. Even when Russell Westbrook was rewriting the fantasy record book in 2016-17, he never had a stretch like that.
Harden has averaged an astounding 1.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and routinely tallies close to 40 minutes of playing time, which is an absolutely lethal combination for fantasy purposes.
Chris Paul is likely to rejoin the Rockets’ rotation on Sunday against the Magic, and his return will almost undoubtedly cut in Harden’s workload. That makes this slate our last chance to roster the Super Sayain version of Harden. He’s in a tough spot against Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors, but there’s no way I’m passing up that opportunity.
Value
Justin Holiday is a member of the Grizzlies we can target for some value on this slate. He’s played huge minutes recently, logging at least 35.5 in three of his past four games, and he’s currently projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s extremely affordable at $4,100 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Fast Break
D’Angelo Russell has crushed over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.45 on DraftKings. That includes scoring at least 54.25 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. He’s averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is second only to Harden at the position, and owns a great matchup against the Knicks. They rank just 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Nets’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks fourth on the slate.
Photo Credit: Russell Isabella-USA Today Sports, Pictured: Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell has been an even better value than Russell on FanDuel recently given his average Plus/Minus of +9.52 over his past 10 games. He’s one of the better pure values at the position at $8,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Small Forward
Stud
The Bucks have been the best team in basketball this season (excluding the Warriors), currently ranking first in defensive efficiency and tied for second in offensive efficiency. They’ve been extremely impressive over their past 19 games, compiling a 16-3 record while outscoring their opponents by an average of 11.4 points per 100 possessions. They’re in a great spot against the Hornets, resulting in a slate-high implied team total of 120.5 points.
Unfortunately, the Bucks have been so good that it’s actually hurt the fantasy value of Giannis Antetokounmpo. They just haven’t needed him to do as much as other superstars like Harden and Anthony Davis do for their teams on a nightly basis, which is why Giannis has averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.65 over his past 10 games on FanDuel.
He’s the ultimate pivot for guaranteed prize pools on this slate. He should carry minimal ownership due to the presence of Harden and has huge upside given his average of 1.79 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Value
The Nuggets have two interesting value SF options on FanDuel. Both Will Barton and Gary Harris are projected for at least 27 minutes of playing time, and each player has seen a large usage bump with Jokic off the floor this season.
Barton is slightly more expensive at $5,100, but he’s averaged a superior 1.10 FanDuel points per minute sans Jokic. Both players look like tremendous values, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 97%.
Fast Break
Otto Porter was a disappointment on Thursday against the Warriors, scoring 27.75 DraftKings points in 34.5 minutes, but he remains underpriced on DraftKings for Friday’s matchup against the Magic. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Kelly Oubre has been red hot over his past nine games, averaging 35.5 DraftKings points. He has the potential to see a few additional minutes with Warren and Melton out of the lineup and could potentially draw the start if head coach Igor Kokoskov decides to shift Devin Booker to PG. Regardless, he’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and scored 45.5 DraftKings points in his first game with Warren out of the lineup.
Power Forward
Stud
Danilo Gallinari will miss his fourth straight game for the Clippers, which keeps Tobias Harris firmly on the DFS radar. He’s been excellent in games without Gallinari this season, averaging 37.5 minutes and 44.44 DraftKings points per game. He also has a strong matchup against the Bulls, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency.
Value
Paul Millsap is priced like a value but has the potential to provide stud-like production on this slate. He’s seen a massive +7.6% usage bump with Jokic off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. He’s only projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models, but he should be able to do a lot of damage in that time frame.
Fast Break
Kenneth Faried has always been a fantasy-friendly player given his ability to gobble up rebounds, and he has not disappointed in his first two games with the Rockets. He scored 33.5 DraftKings points in a spot start in his last contest, and his $5,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. There’s a chance that he returns to the bench with Nene back in action, but his role in the rotation appears to be secure.
There are a host of appealing values at the position on FanDuel, so let’s run through them rapid-fire:
- Bobby Portis; $5,300 (93% Bargain Rating): He’s averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has an excellent matchup against the Clippers.
- Josh Jackson; $5,300 (86% Bargain Rating): He should draw another start with Warren out of the lineup and has averaged 30.23 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in seven games without Warren this season.
- JaMychal Green; $4,700 (95% Bargain Rating): He’s coming off 27.1 FanDuel points in 27 minutes in his last contest and has one of the best matchups of the day against the Kings.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic has been on a roll recently, scoring at least 43.75 DraftKings points in each of his past six games. He’s in a great spot against the Wizards, who own the second-worst rebound rate and rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency this season.
Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic (9).
Vucevic torched the Wiz for 50.0 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t do the same on Friday. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
Mason Plumlee seems like the most logical candidate to replace Jokic in the starting lineup, which makes him one of the most appealing value options on the slate. The Suns have been putrid against opposing centers this season, giving Plumlee an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50, and Plumlee has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter was a surprise DNP in the Knicks’ last game, but coach David Fizdale said that was a reaction to Houston starting a smaller lineup than expected. That shouldn’t be a concern against the Nets, who start a traditional center in Jarrett Allen.
Kanter has averaged a stout 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play much to pay off his $4,700 salary.
Marc Gasol is coming off one of his best games of the season, scoring 63.4 FanDuel points and racking up a triple-double against the Hornets. He’s in an even better spot against the Kings, who have hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing centers all season. He’s one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%, and also figures to carry minimal ownership.
Most people will likely choose to roster Plumlee at the position, so choosing Gasol should give you a contrarian build with upside.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Nuggets PF Paul Millsap
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
