Every day, people on Twitter ask us questions like, “Who should I start?” or “Who does the model like?” or “Who are your top plays for the main slate?” When people ask those types of questions, from now on we will refer them to our Plays of the Day article, which we will publish every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
In every Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers will use our Trends and Player Models tools to highlight each one play of the day — someone to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s main slate on account of what the numbers suggest.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
John Daigle: Chris Carter, MIL, 1B
Phil Hughes’ 1.65 HR/9 allowed over the last 12 months is the highest among pitchers tonight. The Brewers are projected to score only four runs, but at least one of those should single-handedly be driven in by Carter. His HR/AB is top three at his position. Still, given his well-noted roller coaster-like production from night to night, he is best for tournaments.
Unlike others at his position, Carter has questionable weather at the moment, which could free up exposure. As long as the radar continues to read “light rain” at first pitch, stray from the pack and keep him rostered rather than shying away (and that goes for the Brewers as a whole).
Read more of John’s recommendations for today in his slate breakdown.
Bryan Mears: Jerad Eickhoff, PHI, SP
I’m the only one in this inaugural post talking about a pitcher, which is probably because pitcher is easy today (start Noah Syndergaard), which is also why I want to talk about a different one: Jerad Eickhoff. Let’s start with the advanced data from his first two starts of 2016. He is allowing a hard-hit percentage of only 16 percent, which is crazy low and a full 16 percent less than his 2015 average. He’s not a speed guy, as shown by his 90.1 mph average pitch velocity, but because of his movement — his curveball is moving 7.31 inches so far this year and guys are whiffing at that (along with his fastball and slider) at a high rate — it doesn’t matter.
This brings me to a bit of strategy talk. Syndergaard is the clear top option of this slate. I think that Jose Fernandez will be fairly popular because he’s 1) the next-most talented pitcher other than Thor and has incredible K upside, and 2) isn’t playing in the same game as Thor. Because Syndergaard and Eickhoff are facing off today, it will probably lower the latter’s ownership (people strongly avoid that correlation). And, on most slates, I’m inclined to avoid it as well. However, Eickhoff is the second-best option today (and I’m not sure it’s close): His situation and advanced stats tell us that. For the day, I actually like taking both Syndergaard and Eickhoff together on DraftKings, despite the negative correlation.
Also check out today’s Fantasy Flex Podcast, in which Bryan talks more about pitchers to play and fade.
Jay Persson: Joey Votto, CIN, 1B
Not only do the Rockies allow the highest fans in the league, but they also allow the highest Plus/Minus to opposing hitters. Votto is fortunate enough to square off against Jordan Lyles — a pitcher who has worse accuracy than public opinion polls on the 2016 election. This bodes well for Votto, as he led the entire league in walk percentage last season.
The ability to get on base for a team that has a slate-high implied total of 4.7 runs is essential. Hitting third with a .405 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers, Votto makes for one of the strongest cash plays on the slate. Fade at your own risk, if you are at peace with being called a donkey for the remainder of your DFS career.
Again, check out today’s Fantasy Flex Podcast, in which Jay makes jokes and occasionally talks more about batters.
Tyler Buecher: Zack Cozart, CIN, SS
If you’re trying to fit Noah Syndergaard’s hefty pricetag into your lineups, Zack Cozart is a player to target for some salary relief. At only $2,900 on FanDuel ($3,100 on DraftKings), Cozart can provide exactly that while playing in a great situation. Cincinnati’s 4.7 implied run total leads the main slate tonight, as the Reds take on a struggling Jordan Lyles.
Getting exposure with the projected leadoff hitter is never a bad thing, especially when he has .207 Isolated Power (ISO) against lefties — fourth-highest on the slate among shortstops. Cozart has the second-lowest K/AB and third-highest HR/AB, providing a good mix of safety and Upside for your lineup at an affordable price.
Matthew Freedman: Gerardo Parra, COL, OF
So many reasons exist to like Parra, especially as a tournament play. With the Rockies playing in Cincinnati, people might fade them relative to their potential simply because they aren’t in Colorado and aren’t expected to play in great conditions. (Right now, the game has a Weather Rating of only 32 percent.) Still, the Rockies have a reasonable implied total of four runs, Parra bats fifth in the order, and he has one of the best Park Factors in the main slate at 61. At only $3,700 on DraftKings, Parra has a high Bargain Rating of 84 percent.
Finally, by looking at our advanced MLB data, one can see that Parra (per our Exit Velocity Differential metric) has hit the ball three mph harder in his recent performances than he has over the past 12 months, which our Trends tool indicates results in a positive Plus/Minus. Parra is not without some risk — he currently is a match for only one Pro Trend — but he certainly has enough Upside and Consistency to warrant significant exposure in guaranteed prize pools.
———
The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and every Wednesday for PGA.
