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MLB DFS 4/18/16 Slate Breakdown

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard, NYM

Syndergaard or Jose Fernandez will likely be treated as the pivotal decision of the day when, really, it shouldn’t be. Just take a look at the former’s peripherals. Whether it’s his 10 Pro Trends, -170 moneyline, or 2.8 projected runs allowed, everything points directly to Syndergaard in tomorrow’s slate. Sure, there’s massive upside to rostering Fernandez in tournaments, especially since he’s averaging 1.3 more strikeouts per nine than Syndergaard. But for cash, there’s only one option.

Jerad Eickhoff, PHI

Looking to standout from the pack in a rather small slate? What better way to do so than entering a tournament with the guy set to oppose Syndergaard. But you clearly shouldn’t roster Eickhoff simply because he’s the opposite of the majority play. Fortunately, his numbers actually stand out. Like his batted-ball distance of 160 feet over his last two starts, which is actually -14 feet fewer than Syndergaard in that span. Not only that, but note his exit velocity of 84 mph, which is equivalent to his foe. The Mets have a projected wOBA of .317, but Eickhoff’s 1.01 WHIP is the lowest of this slate. He’s considered as good a tournament option as any for those reasons alone.

Pitchers to Exploit

John Lackey, CHC

Although Lackey has gone at least six innings in both starts this season, it’s incredible he has yet to be forced out of a game sooner. His batted-ball distance, for instance, trails only Jake Peavy (226/254) while his hard-hit percentage sits atop his position. The Cardinals projected wOBA of .348 is also the highest among lineups in this slate.

Phil Hughes, MIN

The Brewers are only projected to score 4.0 runs currently, but Hughes’ 1.65 HR/9 over the last 12 months is the highest among pitchers. Milwaukee’s 3-5 hitters — Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Carter — are also slugging at least .440 vs. RHP.

C

Jordan Pacheco, CIN

First, it’s a terrible day for catchers. Buster Posey should be the strongest option, but note his negative wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. RHP. I’d rather just be done with it and roster Pacheco, whose batted-ball distance and fly-ball percentage both rank top three among catchers, and for half the cost.

1B

Chris Carter, MIL

Carter’s home runs per at-bat rate qualifies as top three among first basemen. Although his production typically waivers between two HR’s or five K’s, Carter should be able to exploit Hughes’ aforementioned slate-high HR rate.

2B

Scooter Gennett, MIL

Though he’s exceeded expectations in only one of his last four games, Gennett is still making contact as well anyone else at his position — his batted-ball distance and exit velocity remain top three among second basemen. With a righty back on the mound, Gennett’s wOBA Differential of .100 should make him just another batter able to exploit Hughes.

DJ LeMahieu, COL

If LeMahieu is going to continue batting leadoff for the Rockies against right-handed pitching, he’ll always be considered an option. Given Dan Straily’s 1.31 WHIP, LeMahieu should be able to reach base (and show off his .159 steals per game) with ease.

3B

Nolan Arenado, COL

Even if he hadn’t belted two HR’s just yesterday, it would be a terrific spot for Arenado, nonetheless. His wOBA and slugging percentage of .301/.579, for instance, are both considered top three among third basemen. His batted-ball distance and FB% are top two. He’s the top cash option at his position for a reason.

SS

Xander Bogaerts, BOS

Note Bogaerts’ .075 wOBA Differential vs. LHP. He’s a strong option if only due to batting third for a Red Sox team projected to score the most runs in this slate.

Zack Cozart, CIN

Cozart returned from injury and was immediately put into Cincinnati’s leadoff spot. Though negative wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. RHP, his salary ($3,100) at DraftKings has yet to adjust for his spot in their lineup (as proven by his 70% Bargain Rating). If skipping the All Day slate (and, in turn, rostering Bogaerts), Cozart is easily the most valuable player at shortstop.

OF

 

Michael Conforto, NYM

If Conforto is going to continue batting third vs. RHP, note his otherworldly ISO Differential of .255. The Mets are only projected to score 3.7 runs, but Conforto is another way to have unique exposure towards Syndergaard if rostering him in tournaments.

Scott Schebler, CIN 

Batting sixth against righties, Schebler’s HH% of 50% — top four among outfielders — remains a steal at FanDuel, where he includes a Bargain Rating of 93%. Despite the value, he’s considered more of a tournament option rather than cash.

Weather Watch

Showers are expected to start the moment Brewers-Twins reaches first pitch, but no thunderstorms are expected. If the forecast remains listed as “light showers” rather than “rain,” load up (on what will likely be low ownership).

Good luck!

Let’s get to it.

Pitchers

Noah Syndergaard, NYM

Syndergaard or Jose Fernandez will likely be treated as the pivotal decision of the day when, really, it shouldn’t be. Just take a look at the former’s peripherals. Whether it’s his 10 Pro Trends, -170 moneyline, or 2.8 projected runs allowed, everything points directly to Syndergaard in tomorrow’s slate. Sure, there’s massive upside to rostering Fernandez in tournaments, especially since he’s averaging 1.3 more strikeouts per nine than Syndergaard. But for cash, there’s only one option.

Jerad Eickhoff, PHI

Looking to standout from the pack in a rather small slate? What better way to do so than entering a tournament with the guy set to oppose Syndergaard. But you clearly shouldn’t roster Eickhoff simply because he’s the opposite of the majority play. Fortunately, his numbers actually stand out. Like his batted-ball distance of 160 feet over his last two starts, which is actually -14 feet fewer than Syndergaard in that span. Not only that, but note his exit velocity of 84 mph, which is equivalent to his foe. The Mets have a projected wOBA of .317, but Eickhoff’s 1.01 WHIP is the lowest of this slate. He’s considered as good a tournament option as any for those reasons alone.

Pitchers to Exploit

John Lackey, CHC

Although Lackey has gone at least six innings in both starts this season, it’s incredible he has yet to be forced out of a game sooner. His batted-ball distance, for instance, trails only Jake Peavy (226/254) while his hard-hit percentage sits atop his position. The Cardinals projected wOBA of .348 is also the highest among lineups in this slate.

Phil Hughes, MIN

The Brewers are only projected to score 4.0 runs currently, but Hughes’ 1.65 HR/9 over the last 12 months is the highest among pitchers. Milwaukee’s 3-5 hitters — Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Carter — are also slugging at least .440 vs. RHP.

C

Jordan Pacheco, CIN

First, it’s a terrible day for catchers. Buster Posey should be the strongest option, but note his negative wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. RHP. I’d rather just be done with it and roster Pacheco, whose batted-ball distance and fly-ball percentage both rank top three among catchers, and for half the cost.

1B

Chris Carter, MIL

Carter’s home runs per at-bat rate qualifies as top three among first basemen. Although his production typically waivers between two HR’s or five K’s, Carter should be able to exploit Hughes’ aforementioned slate-high HR rate.

2B

Scooter Gennett, MIL

Though he’s exceeded expectations in only one of his last four games, Gennett is still making contact as well anyone else at his position — his batted-ball distance and exit velocity remain top three among second basemen. With a righty back on the mound, Gennett’s wOBA Differential of .100 should make him just another batter able to exploit Hughes.

DJ LeMahieu, COL

If LeMahieu is going to continue batting leadoff for the Rockies against right-handed pitching, he’ll always be considered an option. Given Dan Straily’s 1.31 WHIP, LeMahieu should be able to reach base (and show off his .159 steals per game) with ease.

3B

Nolan Arenado, COL

Even if he hadn’t belted two HR’s just yesterday, it would be a terrific spot for Arenado, nonetheless. His wOBA and slugging percentage of .301/.579, for instance, are both considered top three among third basemen. His batted-ball distance and FB% are top two. He’s the top cash option at his position for a reason.

SS

Xander Bogaerts, BOS

Note Bogaerts’ .075 wOBA Differential vs. LHP. He’s a strong option if only due to batting third for a Red Sox team projected to score the most runs in this slate.

Zack Cozart, CIN

Cozart returned from injury and was immediately put into Cincinnati’s leadoff spot. Though negative wOBA and ISO Differentials vs. RHP, his salary ($3,100) at DraftKings has yet to adjust for his spot in their lineup (as proven by his 70% Bargain Rating). If skipping the All Day slate (and, in turn, rostering Bogaerts), Cozart is easily the most valuable player at shortstop.

OF

 

Michael Conforto, NYM

If Conforto is going to continue batting third vs. RHP, note his otherworldly ISO Differential of .255. The Mets are only projected to score 3.7 runs, but Conforto is another way to have unique exposure towards Syndergaard if rostering him in tournaments.

Scott Schebler, CIN 

Batting sixth against righties, Schebler’s HH% of 50% — top four among outfielders — remains a steal at FanDuel, where he includes a Bargain Rating of 93%. Despite the value, he’s considered more of a tournament option rather than cash.

Weather Watch

Showers are expected to start the moment Brewers-Twins reaches first pitch, but no thunderstorms are expected. If the forecast remains listed as “light showers” rather than “rain,” load up (on what will likely be low ownership).

Good luck!