The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The number of true superstars is limited on this slate, which should make Russell Westbrook a popular option. He’s been a nice value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.44 on DraftKings, and has the potential to be even better moving forward. He’s shot just 38.9% from the field, 19.5% from 3-point range and 66.7% from the free throw line over that time frame, all of which are significantly lower than his career averages.
Westbrook is in a great spot against the Wizards, who rank just 27th in defensive efficiency. The Thunder’s resulting implied team total of 117.75 points is the top mark on the slate. The Wizards have also struggled defending PGs in particular, giving Westbrook an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.39.
Westbrook is an excellent value at $11,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Devonte’ Graham has taken on a larger role for the Hornets recently, logging at least 21.5 minutes in each of his past four games. He’s averaged a stout 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage from a fantasy perspective when given playing time. He’s in a nice spot against the Suns, who rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season.
Graham remains affordable at $4,000 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings, which makes him an appealing value target.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker looks like a strong target on FanDuel, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He benefits from the same matchup as Graham, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.47.
Walker has cooled down a bit after a torrid start to the season but has still averaged 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
The Raptors could be a huge source of value on this slate. Kawhi Leonard has already been ruled out on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Kyle Lowry is questionable after missing 10 of the past 11 games with a back injury. If both are inactive, Fred VanVleet could be asked to carry a large workload. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +6.4% with Lowry, Leonard and Jonas Valanciunas off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.15 FanDuel points per minute.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position is surprisingly deep for a four-game slate.
It starts at the top with Bradley Beal, who continues to dominate with John Wall out of the lineup. He’s averaged 51.71 DraftKings points in seven games without his star running mate, good for an average Plus/Minus of +10.9. He’s been priced up considerably recently, but his current $9,000 salary still comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Devin Booker might be the preferred stud option on FanDuel. He’s $700 cheaper than Beal, giving him a Bargain Rating of 68%. He’s also in a slightly better spot against the Hornets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.12. Booker’s average of 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month is the top mark at the SG, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for first as well.
Value
No one at the position is projected for more minutes than Kevin Huerter’s 38.2. He hasn’t been particularly effective when on the court, averaging just 0.63 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but it’s impossible to ignore that kind of playing time at $4,300.
Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.79 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
Fast Break
Jeremy Lamb is currently questionable for the Hornets, and his absence would give Malik Monk a nice bump in value. Monk played more than than 22 minutes sans Lamb in their last game and has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s dirt-cheap at $3,600.
Dennis Schroder leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.52 against the Wizards and could be an appealing buy low option on FanDuel. His salary has decreased by $800 over the past 11 games, and his current $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 68%.
Small Forward
Stud
You could make the case that Paul George deserves some bottom-ballot MVP consideration for what he’s done with the Thunder this season. He’s currently averaging career highs in points and rebounds per game all while playing some of the best perimeter defense in the league. He currently ranks third in the league in ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus, trailing only James Harden and Anthony Davis.
Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paul George
From a fantasy perspective, George has been just as dominant recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.53 on FanDuel over his past 10 games and has posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month. He leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel and is an elite option against the the hapless Wizards.
Value
Otto Porter could be an interesting option. He’s played reduced minutes since returning from injury, but he’s currently projected for 25.5 in our NBA Models. That could be enough playing time to pay off his $4,900 salary on FanDuel given his average of 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Norman Powell has taken on a larger role for the Raptors recently, emerging as a key contributor off the bench. He’s averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and could potentially replace Leonard in the starting lineup against the Pacers. Either way, he should see a healthy amount of playing time at $3,700.
Trevor Ariza continues to play massive minutes for the Wizards and is currently projected for 39.5 in our Models. He’s averaged 32.0 DraftKings points per game with Wall out of the lineup this season and could be asked to take on a larger role offensively if Beal struggles with the individual defense of George.
Power Forward
Studs
There are no true studs available at the PF position on this slate, but Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam could provide stud-like production for the shorthanded Raptors. Both players have seen a usage-bump of at least 3.8% with Leonard, Lowry and Valanciunas off the court this season, resulting in 1.13 DraftKings points per minute for Ibaka and 1.00 DraftKings points per minute for Siakam.
Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paul Siakam
Both seem like strong targets on DraftKings, where each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 86%.
Value
Marvin Williams has somewhat quietly posted some big games this season, including scoring 31.5 DraftKings points in a difficult matchup against the Nuggets in his most recent contest. He’s in a much easier spot against the Suns, giving Williams an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.36 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Myles Turner is currently listed as questionable, and his absence would give Domantas Sabonis a massive bump in value. He’s been a monster on a per-minute basis this season, averaging 1.28 FanDuel points per minute, and would undoubtedly see a boost in playing time with Turner out of the lineup.
Jerami Grant could be a cheap way to get some exposure to the Thunder, especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games but has still managed an average Plus/Minus of +4.33 over his past 10 games on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
Most of the value at the center position is typically found on DraftKings, but that’s not the case on this slate.
Hassan Whiteside owns a Bargain Rating of 95% on FanDuel and is coming off a big performance in his last outing, scoring 49.6 FanDuel points against the Wizards. He’s in another great spot against the Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league and rank just 23rd in rebound rate. Whiteside is almost always productive when on the court — he’s averaged 1.41 FanDuel points per minute this season — but his playing time tends to fluctuate on a night-to-night basis.
That said, he doesn’t offer much downside at his current $7,200 price tag and offers a massive ceiling given the matchup. He’s an elite target in guaranteed prize pools.
Value
Bismack Biyombo drew the start in the Hornets’ last game and logged 39.5 DraftKings points in 30 minutes of playing time. He’s dirt-cheap across the industry, which should make him a popular target if he starts again on Sunday’s slate. He’s in an elite spot against the Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.59 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Steven Adams is another center who seems underpriced on FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He might not offer the same upside as Whiteside, but his floor is much safer. He’s also in an elite spot against the Wizards, who have been the worst rebounding team in the league with Dwight Howard out of the lineup this season.
DeAndre Ayton has started to come into his own, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.42 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Miami Heat C Hassan Whiteside
Photo Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
