The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Don’t look now, but Russell Westbrook has started to revert to some of his old ways. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 31.5% in each of his past four games, and three of those have come with Paul George in the lineup. He dominated the Mavericks in his most recent game, logging 32 points and a triple-double en route to 72.25 DraftKings points.
Unfortunately, DraftKings and FanDuel have both appeared to notice this shift as well, and they wasted no time in jacking up his salary for today’s contest vs. the Lakers. It’s a strong matchup — the Lakers have played at the third fastest pace this season and the Thunder’s implied team total of 117.25 ranks second on the slate — but it’s tough to trust Westbrook at an elevated salary.
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0).
Value
Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose have already been ruled out for today’s matchup vs. the Celtics, so Tyus Jones should continue to handle to majority of the point guard minutes for the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s dominated in that role over his past two games, averaging 37.5 DraftKings points per game, and he’s currently projected for 38.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s priced at a discount at just $5,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
On the other side of the same matchup, Terry Rozier will likely enter the starting lineup in place of the injured Kyrie Irving. He’s started each of the first two games that Irving has missed this season, resulting in an average of 33.0 DraftKings points per game. He’s a steal at just $4,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
Tomas Satoransky is another starting point guard priced at a discount on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He has an elite matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. Satoransky could see a slight reduction in minutes with the return of Otto Porter, but he still seems significantly underpriced given the matchup.
Injuries are the theme of the day at the point guard position, and Lonzo Ball is another player who should benefit from his team being shorthanded. Rajon Rondo and LeBron James remain out for today’s contest vs. the Thunder, and Ball has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.9 on FanDuel with both players out of the lineup this season. He’s another massive value on FanDuel, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal has been an excellent value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.09 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s been dominant with John Wall out of the lineup, averaging 53.8 DraftKings points per game and a Plus/Minus of +14.2.
He has an elite matchup vs. the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.95 on DraftKings, and his $8,600 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s going to be tough to avoid for cash games and has plenty of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Value
Josh Okogie is expected to enter the starting lineup in place of the injured Robert Covington, which makes him an appealing target at just $3,900 on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.30 (per the Trends tool).
That said, he has averaged an uninspiring 0.69 DraftKings points per minute with Teague, Rose, and Covington off the court since the Jimmy Butler trade, so his upside might be a little capped.
Fast Break
Zach LaVine has been an awful fantasy asset recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.64 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That’s resulted in a massive salary decrease of -$1,800 over the past month, which could make him an interesting buy-low target today vs. the Orlando Magic. He’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season and is coming off 32.5 minutes in his most recent contest.
Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine (8).
The Brooklyn Nets are dealing with a laundry list of injuries right now, which could result in a few additional minutes for D’Angelo Russell. He played 34 minutes in his most recent outing and has averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute on the season. He could be an appealing option vs. the Pelicans given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George stands out in his own tier at the small forward position today. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s averaged 1.51 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the fifth-highest mark among all players on today’s slate.
He benefits from the same excellent matchup as Westbrook, but you’re probably not going to roster them in the same lineups: They own a negative correlation on DraftKings, and it seems unlikely that both players can pay off their current salaries on the same slate.
Value
Jonathon Simmons has been ruled out for today’s contest vs. the Bulls, which should result in a few extra minutes for Jonathan Isaac. He hasn’t been particularly effective this season, averaging just 0.82 FanDuel points per minute, but he’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be enough playing time to potentially pay off his $4,300 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
It will be interesting to see how the Wizards’ wing rotation plays out with Otto Porter back in the lineup. Trevor Ariza has been seeing all the minutes he can handle recently, seeing at least 36 minutes in all but one game since arriving from the Phoenix Suns. He’s averaged 33.21 DraftKings points per game over that time frame, which would make him a strong value at just $5,900.
Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Wizards forward Otto Porter Jr. (22).
Porter is slightly cheaper at $5,500, which could make him an interesting target. He’s expected to be on a minute limit in his first game in nearly a month, but he’s seen a team-high usage bump of +4.7% with Wall off the court this season.
His return will likely have the biggest effect on Jeff Green, but he should still see plenty of minutes with Markieff Morris out of the lineup. He’s priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Small forward is loaded today, so here are some other rapid-fire options:
- Nicolas Batum: Should see increased playing time with Jeremy Lamb out of the lineup, and his $4,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
- DeMarre Carroll: Another member of the Nets who should benefit from their current injury situation. He’s scored at least 31 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is priced at just $4,000.
- Gordon Hayward: Could be an intriguing contrarian option with Irving out of the lineup. He exploded for 58.25 DraftKings points in his first matchup vs. the Timberwolves this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis burned a lot of people on Monday when he was scratched after lineup lock, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup today vs. the Nets. Hopefully that scares some people away because this is an absolute smash spot. The Nets rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve been crushed by opposing big men in particular.
Power forwards and centers with a salary of at least $8,000 on DraftKings have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.97 and a Consistency Rating of 78.9% vs. the Nets this season, and Davis’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.65 is the top mark on the slate by a considerable margin. He’s been priced up to $11,800, but that still results in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Marcus Morris has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Irving out of the lineup this season, averaging 35.63 DraftKings points per game. He’s also seen a team-high usage bump with Irving off the court, so he looks like an excellent value at just $5,500 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum also warrants some consideration for the Celtics. He’s averaged a team-high 35.75 DraftKings points in two games without Irving this season, and he’s fairly priced across the industry.
Kyle Kuzma should continue to see all the minutes he can handle for the Lakers with LeBron out of the lineup. He’s played at least 40 in each of his past three games, and no one on today’s slate is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models. He’s also seen a team-high usage bump of +6.2% with LeBron and Rondo off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.05 FanDuel points per minute.
Center
Stud
Davis looks like the top stud on today’s slate, but its impossible to ignore what Karl-Anthony Towns has done recently. He’s dominated in each of his past three games, averaging a ridiculous 75.5 DraftKings points per game. He’s unsurprisingly benefited from the absences of Teague and Rose, seeing a team-high usage bump of +5.2% with both players off the floor since the Butler trade.
Towns has averaged a stout 1.68 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, which is only slight less than what Davis has averaged over the past month (1.69 DraftKings points per minute). He’s significantly cheaper than Davis at just $9,600 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32).
That said, he is in a tough spot vs. the Boston Celtics, who currently rank fourth in the league in defensive efficiency. He will likely see a lot of Al Horford on the defensive end, who limited him to just 12 points over 48 possessions in their first matchup this season. Towns is a really scary fade at the moment, but he has more downside today than he did in his matchups vs. the Pelicans, Hawks, and Heat.
Value
The Hornets are going to be without Cody Zeller on today’s slate, which opens up a solid handful of minutes at the center position for the Charlotte Hornets. Willie Hernangomez is expected to grab the majority of them and has averaged a stout 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his $3,800 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Thomas Bryant has thrived for the shorthanded Wizards recently, scoring at least 33.0 DraftKings points in each of his past two games. He has a dream matchup today vs. the Hawks, who have been crushed by opposing centers all season. They’ve been one of the worst rebounding teams in addition to playing the fastest pace in the league, giving Bryant an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37 on DraftKings.
If you are brave enough to fade Davis tonight, Julius Randle could be an interesting pivot. He’s seen a massive boost in playing time with Nikola Mirotic out of the lineup, playing at least 37.5 minutes in each of his past four games. He’s gone for at least 41.0 DraftKings points in each of his past four and benefits from the same cake matchup vs. the Nets.
Finally, don’t forget about Andre Drummond on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $8,100 in a tough matchup vs. the Grizzlies, but Drummond has averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.38 with a comparable salary over the past two seasons.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Pelicans forward Anthony Davis
Photo Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
