The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
eatures a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with big-name PGs. It starts up top with Russell Westbrook, who is coming off a dreadful game yesterday vs. the Dallas Mavericks. He recorded just nine points on 4-of-22 shooting from the field (18.2%), but was able to salvage some fantasy value by recording six steals.
That said, his 31.4% usage rate was encouraging. He had been below that mark in eight of his past nine games with Paul George in the lineup, so it’s possible he’s going to be more aggressive looking for his shot moving forward. He’s an interesting option at just $11,000 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93% and could see reduced ownership with a lot of studs available on the slate.
Steph Curry has scored at least 50.0 FanDuel points in three of his past four games and is in an elite spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 120.0 points is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. Curry has historically enjoyed playing the Suns, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.82 on FanDuel in 14 meetings since 2014 (per the Trends tool).
Value
It’s going to be hard to avoid Tyus Jones at just $4,500 on FanDuel. He played 36.5 minutes yesterday with Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose out of the lineup, resulting in 38.3 FanDuel points. Both players are listed as doubtful for today’s contest vs. the Pelicans, so Jones should once again handle the majority of the PG minutes. It’s an elite matchup – the Pelicans rank fifth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency – giving Jones an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.63.
Fast Break
De’Anthony Melton could be an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at just $3,500 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is coming off 30 minutes in his most recent contest.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is in a really interesting spot today. On one hand, he’s taking on the Memphis Grizzlies, which might be the most difficult matchup in all of fantasy basketball. They’re currently playing at the slowest pace in the league by a decent margin, and they also rank fifth in defensive efficiency.
The Rockets haven’t played much faster – they rank just 28th in pace – so this game should be one of the slowest that we’ve seen all season. The resulting over/under of 200.5 points suggests that points will be at a premium.
That said, Harden has the potential to be a usage monster in this contest. He’s already been using an obscene amount of possessions recently, posting a usage rate of at least 42.2% in each of his past four contests, and now the Rockets will be without Eric Gordon.
Harden has posted a ridiculous 47.8% usage rate and 59.5% assist rate in 175 minutes with both Gordon and Chris Paul off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.74 DraftKings points per minute. It’s almost impossible to fade that kind of production at $11,400 on DraftKings, even in a poor game environment.
Value
Sticking with the Rockets, Austin Rivers will replace Gordon in the starting lineup, which makes him an appealing target at just $3,800 on FanDuel. He’s played big minutes since arriving in Houston, averaging 34.0 per game, and he’s currently projected for 37.0 in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.18.
Fast Break
Devin Booker leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and has been a reliable source of value since returning from injury. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his first eight games, with the lone exception being the second leg of a back-to-back after logging 54.5 minutes the night prior.
Booker found success in his first matchup vs. the Warriors this season, scoring 44.25 DraftKings points in 38.5 minutes.
Klay Thompson still seems underpriced on DraftKings at $6,200 and is coming off 42.5 fantasy points in his most recent game. Thompson has also historically done some of his best work in projected blowouts, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.45 on DraftKings when favored by at least 10 points.
Small Forward
Stud
The top of the SF position features a tough choice today between Kevin Durant and Paul George. Durant has a better matchup vs. the Suns, but George has been one of the most underrated players in fantasy this season. In fact, he was my pick for fantasy MVP for the first half of the year:
And the Sweatie for #NBA mid-season fantasy MVP goes to….not James Harden (despite what he says.)@AdamMKaufman welcomes @MattLaMarca and @amankuta on The 2018 Sweaties Awards Show to announce the #NBA fantasy MVP. pic.twitter.com/ESYG61gJAN
— The Sweat (@TheSweatDK) December 31, 2018
He showed no ill effects in his first game back from injury, recording 36 points and logging 36.5 minutes. He’s averaged an unreal Plus/Minus of +10.31 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, while his average of 1.53 DraftKings points per minute is significantly higher than Durant’s (1.33). George gets the edge from me on today’s slate, especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Kyle Anderson has somewhat quietly been an excellent value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.43 over his past six games on DraftKings. He’s played big minutes recently, including approximately 38.5 in his most recent contest, and has increased his production to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s an excellent target on DraftKings, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Fast Break
No one at the position is projected for more minutes than Robert Covington, which gives him appeal in a pace-up spot vs. the Pelicans. He’s more valuable on FanDuel given his ability to pile up defensive stats, and his $6,500 salary makes him a slightly better value as well.
The Spurs are going to be without Rudy Gay today, which could open up a few extra minutes for Davis Bertans. He can stroke it from deep for a big man – he’s shooting 48.0% from 3-point range this season – which is a big reason why he’s averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s extremely affordable across the industry.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis hit his absolute floor in his most recent game, scoring just 47.25 DraftKings points vs. the Houston Rockets. But that game was on the second leg of a back-to-back, and he played 43 minutes in his previous contest. In retrospect, we probably should’ve seen that coming.
He has a good shot to right the ship today vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have struggled with opposing big men all season. Davis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.40, and the Pelicans’ implied team total of 116.5 ranks second on the slate.
Davis also leads all PFs with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $11,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. It’s a tough call today between Davis and Harden – assuming that you can’t jam both into the same lineup – but Davis has the clear edge in matchup.
Value
Maxi Kleber has started each of the past three games for the Dallas Mavericks and has logged at least 28 minutes in each of his past two. He’s averaged a solid 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him an appealing target at just $3,700 on DraftKings. He could also see a few additional minutes if Dirk Nowitzki is ultimately ruled out.
Fast Break
LaMarcus Aldridge and Julius Randle could be a bit overlooked today if people focus on a stars-and-scrubs approach, but both players appear to be in excellent spots.
Aldridge is coming off 52.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest and should see a few additional opportunities with Gay out of the lineup. He’s priced at just $7,500 on DraftKings, and Aldridge has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.02 with a comparable salary over the past two seasons.
Randle has been a per-minute monster for much of the season, averaging 1.30 DraftKings points per minute, and has seen a big bump in playing time with Nikola Mirotic out of the lineup. He’s played at least 37.5 minutes in each of his last two games, so he seems underpriced across the industry.
Center
Stud
It will be interesting to see how people value Karl-Anthony Towns today in comparison to Harden and Davis. He hasn’t been nearly as productive this season but has scored at least 70.25 DraftKings points in each of his past two games.
Towns has massive upside if Rose and Teague are ruled out again today: He’s seen a usage bump of +5.1% and averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minutes in three games without them this season. He’s priced at a significant discount compared to Harden and Davis, which might make him the best overall play on the slate.
Value
It’s a tough day to pay down too far at center, but Kevon Looney could be worth some consideration. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, averaging 21.74 FanDuel points per game. That said, he hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling over that time frame – his highest output was 23.4 – and he’s been priced up to $4,200 for today’s matchup vs. the Suns.
Fast Break
Clint Capela is coming off one of his worst games of the season, which could make him an interesting buy-low target on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $7,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and should see a few additional opportunities with Gordon out of the lineup.
Steven Adams looks like the best value at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 35.8 minutes.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns
Photo Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
