The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a nine-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been walking a dangerous path recently, and it all came crashing down on Saturday. He posted another game with a usage rate below 30%, but this time he couldn’t make up for it with his peripherals. He shot just 3-for-17 from the field and tallied just three steals, resulting in a Plus/Minus of -16.18 on DraftKings. He’s tempting on DraftKings against the Timberwolves given his Bargain Rating of 95%, but this is clearly not the same player from a fantasy perspective. It’s possible that he’s still overpriced at $11,000.
Value
Collin Sexton looks like a nice value on FanDuel, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. He’s seen reduced minutes in blowouts in each of his past two games, but that doesn’t figure to be as big of an issue against the Bulls. Sexton has averaged 0.74 FanDuel points per minute and is currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
The Hornets have a difficult matchup against the Celtics, but Kemba Walker might be too cheap to pass up on DraftKings. He’s priced at $8,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for third at the position.
Steph Curry hasn’t been particularly effective since returning from injury, but Sunday’s game between the Warriors and Clippers figures to be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective. Both teams play at a top-10 pace, and the resulting total of 234 points ranks second on the slate. He could be worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jrue Holiday continues to be the safest investment in daily fantasy basketball. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91% over the past year and an average Plus/Minus of +4.22 over the past month on DraftKings.
His price has been elevated to a season-high $9,100 on Sunday’s slate, but he has a juicy matchup against the Kings, who rank second in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans’ implied team total of 119.0 points ranks second on the slate. Holiday doesn’t offer as much upside at his elevated price tag but looks like one of the safest options for cash games.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Bogdan Bogdanovic has some appeal for the Kings. Their implied team total of 118.0 is just one point lower than the Pelicans, and Bogdanovic’s $5,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and was routinely seeing 30+ minutes prior to injuring his foot.
Fast Break
The Warriors own the highest implied team total on the slate at 122.0 points, and Klay Thompson is priced at a discount at $6,500 on DraftKings. He’s a volatile fantasy player, but there’s limited risk at his current salary: He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.61 with a comparable price tag (per our Trends tool).
Jordan Clarkson has been a nice source of value for the Cavaliers recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Small Forward
Stud
It seems like it’s time to buy low on Kevin Durant. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,100 on FanDuel and $1,200 on DraftKings over the past month and is coming of 53.4 FanDuel points in his most recent outing.
Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant
Durant represents a solid savings when compared to the highest priced SF on Sunday’s slate — LeBron James — but actually has higher median and ceiling projections in our NBA Models.
Value
Joe Harris has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.62 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and has seen a solid bump in playing time recently given the injury to Allen Crabbe. He has an elite matchup against the Suns, who rank just 27th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Nemanja Bjelica looks like a strong value on DraftKings, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.71 against the Pelicans in what should be the fastest-paced game of the day. He scored 29.0 DraftKings points in his last game despite shooting just 4-13 from the field and 2-9 from 3-point range, so he has massive upside at his current salary.
Westbrook taking on a smaller offensive workload recently has resulted in some huge fantasy numbers for Paul George, who has increased his production to 1.52 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +12.32 over his past 10 games. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the highest-priced player in fantasy basketball, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.18 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.74 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his average of 36.9 minutes per game ranks first in the league. He’s played even more minutes recently, tallying at least 39 in three of his past four games.
Davis in an absolute smash spot against the Kings, who have struggled against opposing big men all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.54 on DraftKings, where his $11,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s going to be tough to avoid on this slate.
Value
Larry Nance Jr. is not exactly cheap at $7,300 on FanDuel, but that doesn’t stop him from being one of the best options on the slate.
Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Larry Nance Jr.
He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.11 over his past 10 games on FanDuel thanks to an average of 1.08 fantasy points per minute. He’s in an excellent spot against the Bulls as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.18, and his salary results in a Bargain Rating of 86% on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Heat have arguably the toughest rotation in basketball to figure out at the moment, especially in their frontcourt. Hassan Whiteside, Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo have all had fantasy viability at times this season, but James Johnson appears to be the best option of the group on this slate. He’s coming off a season-high 30.5 minutes in his last game and has averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That’s an appealing combination at just $3,800.
Draymond Green has been mired in a deep shooting slump all season. He’s struggled in particular from 3-point range, making just 22.0% of his shots, which has dropped his scoring average to just 6.9 points per game. That said, he did show some signs of improvement in that area in his last game, and his ability to pile up peripheral statistics gives him big upside on days he actually manages to put the ball in the hoop.
Green has been priced down across the industry, so this could be a nice time to buy low on him.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Ayton has been balling recently for the Suns, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his seven of his past eight games on FanDuel. There is some concern that the Suns are on a back-to-back after playing in a game that went into triple overtime, but Ayton simply seems too cheap at his current salary across the industry. He also has an elite matchup against the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.82 on FanDuel.
Value
Ivica Zubac looks like one of the strongest plays of the day at minimal salary across the industry. He played more than 32 minutes on Saturday and has averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to be part of the rotation with JaVale McGee out of the lineup. He has a much tougher matchup on Sunday against the Grizzlies, but he’s too cheap to pass up.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic has been fantastic virtually all season, but he’s historically done some of his best work against the Heat. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.43 in his last 10 contests against Miami, although he has failed to return value in both meetings with them this season.
Jarrett Allen has played at least 29.5 minutes in back-to-back games, which makes him an appealing target at $5,400 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.57 against the Suns. His $5,400 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Pelicans PF Anthony Davis
Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
