The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook is coming off a dominant game vs. the Kings in his last outing, but it was another game where he posted a lower usage rate than we’ve become accustomed to. He’s now posted a usage rate of 28.7% or less in six straight games, and he hasn’t posted a usage rate of less than 30% since his second season in the league.
He continues to make up for it by racking up steals at the defensive end — he’s recorded at least four in six of his past seven games — resulting in an average of 1.65 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That said, any regression in that department could have a big impact on his fantasy numbers.
Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0).
He’s in a subpar spot today vs. the Jazz, but Westbrook has actually done some of his best work vs. Utah over the past three seasons. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.61 on DraftKings over his past 15 meetings vs. the Jazz, although he did struggle to just 45.25 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season (per the Trends tool).
Value
The Raptors have the potential to be really shorthanded on today’s slate: Kawhi Leonard and Serge Ibaka have both been ruled out, while Kyle Lowry and Danny Green are both listed as questionable. Head coach Nick Nurse didn’t seem particularly confident that either Lowry or Green would be able to suit up, so the Raptors could be down four potential starters for today’s matchup vs. the 76ers.
That makes Fred VanVleet a really appealing option. He’s averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a team-high usage bump of +5.4% with both Lowry and Leonard off the floor this season. The 76ers are also an excellent matchup for point guards, giving VanVleet an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.33 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Steph Curry looks like a value on FanDuel, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. His salary has decreased by $1,300 after peaking at $10,700, so this could be a nice opportunity to buy low on him.
Ricky Rubio has a difficult matchup today vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, but his $5,400 salary on DraftKings is just too cheap. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s coming off 42.0 fantasy points yesterday vs. the Portland Trail Blazers.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Anthony Davis has probably been the fantasy MVP this season, but James Harden is making a serious run at his crown. He’s been a usage monster recently, posting an average usage rate of 39.0% over his past 16 games, and the majority of those games have come with Chris Paul in the lineup. CP3 is slated to miss at least the next two weeks with a hamstring injury, and Harden can improve upon his already ridiculous fantasy numbers in that situation.
In five games with Paul out of the lineup this season, Harden has averaged 39.9 minutes and 63.5 DraftKings points per game. He has a difficult matchup today vs. the Spurs, who have allowed just 98.1 points per 100 possessions over their past seven games, but it’s impossible not to like Harden at his current salary.
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: James Harden (13).
Value
There’s going to be a lot of value with the Raptors today, and that includes Delon Wright. He replaced Green in the starting lineup and played 33 minutes in yesterday’s contest and has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Fast Break
Klay Thompson is a volatile fantasy scorer but doesn’t carry much risk at just $6,400 on DraftKings. He’s historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.16 with a comparable salary.
Dwyane Wade looks like one of the better values of the day on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He should also see a boost in value if Justise Winslow is ruled out. He scored just 17.9 FanDuel points in his most recent contest but shot just 4-17 from the field.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been as good as anyone on a per-minute basis this season, but he hasn’t played enough minutes to pay off his typical salary. He’s averaging just 33.9 minutes per game, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -1.43 through his first 29 games.
That said, his salary has decreased by $500 over the past month on DraftKings, and his current $10,900 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Miami Heat, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.52
Value
Norman Powell is priced at the absolute minimum today on both DraftKings and FanDuel and should see a big role for the Raptors. He played 26 minutes in their last game, and that was with Leonard in the lineup.
Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Toronto Raptors guard Norman Powell (24), Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas (17).
Fast Break
Kevin Durant has not been a good value recently, causing his salary to decrease by $1,200 on DraftKings over the past month. The Warriors lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 118.75 points, which could make him an intriguing buy-low option.
Trevor Ariza has played a huge role since being acquired by the Wizards, playing at least 36 minutes in both games. He’s averaged 41.0 DraftKings points per game in those contests, and his $5,300 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Power Forward
Stud
The power forward position is a bit limited on today’s slate, and there’s no true “stud” option. That said, we can definitely consider Pascal Siakam a stud given the Raptors’ current injury situation. He’s been a strong fantasy producer all season and has seen a usage bump of +5.6% with Leonard, Lowry, and Ibaka off the court. The result is an average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute, and his $6,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Mike Muscala has been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.34 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He doesn’t typically play many minutes but makes up for it by averaging 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. He’s priced at just $3,600 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Raptors, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris has seen a reduction in value since the acquisition of Ariza, which will likely make him a contrarian option on today’s slate. That said, he’s been priced down to just $5,000 on FanDuel and has an elite matchup today vs. the Suns. They’ve struggled with opposing big men all season, giving Morris an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.10.
Draymond Green’s shooting woes have been well documented since his return from injury, but he’s still capable of fill up the stat sheet. He’s been priced down to just $6,600 on FanDuel and has averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has not played well since the acquisition of Jimmy Butler, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.94 over his past 10 games. That said, he’s still averaged 1.51 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his salary has decreased by $1,000 over that time frame. His current $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he leads all centers with 11 Pro Trends. There are a lot of stud options to consider paying up for, but Embiid might be the best pure value of the bunch.
Jasen Vinlove- USA Today Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid (21).
Value
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Raptors could be a nice source of value today. That includes center Greg Monroe, who has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him one of the strongest values on the slate.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert has increased his per-minute production to 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He has a tough matchup vs. Steven Adams, but it is a large pace-up spot for the Jazz.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured Above: Raptors F Pascal Siakam
Photo Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
