NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Thu. 12/20): Will Luka Doncic Continue to Dominate?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, lets go game-by-game instead.

Houston Rockets (-3) at Miami Heat — 210.5 total

Rockets (106.75 implied points)

The Rockets are slight road favorites in Miami and have started to figure things out after a slow start to the season. They’ve won each of their past five games and are up to fifth in the league in offensive efficiency.

The big difference from last season is that they’re playing at a snail’s pace, choosing to let James Harden do his thing for basically the entire game instead of just the fourth quarter. They still feature a barrage of 3-point attempts and shots at the rim, highlighted by yesterday’s magnificent shot chart:

The Rockets attempted one shot that wasn't a three or in the paint. One. The entire game. pic.twitter.com/apmFIDGfw6

— Jake Whitacre (@jakewhitacre) December 20, 2018

Their recent winning streak has coincided with some massive fantasy performances from Harden. He’s averaged 71.44 DraftKings points per game over his past four games, and his usage rate of 37.3% this season is the top mark in the league by a wide margin. No one else on this slate even sniffs his ceiling, which should make him one of the highest-owned players in all formats.

Unsurprisingly, Harden’s increased workload has resulted in a diminished role for Chris Paul. His current usage rate of 23.0% is his lowest mark since 2012-13, while his current assist rate of 37.7% is the lowest mark of his entire career. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.87 this season on DraftKings and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in just 38% of his games.

That said, CP3 does have the best individual matchup on the team, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.90. He wont exactly be contrarian on a two-game slate, but he shouldn’t carry nearly the same ownership as Harden.

Clint Capela has gone for at least 42.0 fantasy points in three of his past four games and looks like a strong value on DraftKings, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He has increased his fantasy production to 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and leads all centers with nine Pro Trends.

Eric Gordon is playing more minutes and averaging more shot attempts per game than he did last season, but that hasn’t translated into more fantasy points. He’s averaging roughly four fewer fantasy points per game because he’s making just 37.0% of his shots from the field and 28.8% of his shots from 3-point range. If he ever starts making his jump shot again, he’s going to be a major value at his current salary across the industry.

P.J. Tucker will likely be a popular punt play at just $3,700 on DraftKings. He plays a ton of minutes for the Rockets, but averages just 0.61 DraftKings points per minute this season. He posted 36.75 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s contest, but that was merely the second time all season that he’s cracked 28.0 fantasy points. He’ll likely be over-owned in guaranteed prize pools given his limited upside.

No one else on the Rockets really plays enough minutes to provide much fantasy value. Gerald Green and Danuel House each played at least 25 minutes in yesterday’s contest, but their playing time was inflated by a blowout. They should return to their normal workloads on today’s slate.

Heat (103.75 implied points)

The Heat own the lowest implied team total of the day but could be an interesting target because of their current injury situation. Goran Dragic is going to miss at least the next two months after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. Justise Winslow has been serving as the starting point guard with Dragic out of the lineup, but he’s currently questionable after injuring his ankle. They’d be pretty thin in the backcourt of Winslow is unable to suit up.

Tyler Johnson would likely replace Winslow in the starting lineup, but he’s not exactly the picture of health at the moment himself. He’s probable for today’s game after dealing with migraines, but he’s been playing limited minutes recently after missing an extended period due to a hip injury. Still, the Heat may have no choice but to play him big minutes today if Winslow is unavailable, and his $4,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Josh Richardson has been the most consistent source of fantasy value for the Heat this season, but has posted an average Plus/Minus of -3.07 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has decreased by $500 over the past month, and his current $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s also been better over his past two games, scoring at least 34.25 DraftKings points in each.

The frontcourt situation for the Heat is maddening. Hassan Whiteside is an elite fantasy asset when on the court — he’s averaged 1.49 DraftKings points per minute over the past month — but his playing time has become so infrequent. He’s seen 25 minutes or fewer in seven of his past eight games, and even a dominant per-minute player like Whiteside can’t make much of an impact in that small a role.

Kelly Olynyk has been the best value in the Miami frontcourt recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.10 over his past 10 games. He’s also coming off a poor performance in his most recent contest, which could result in slightly lower ownership on today’s slate.

Bam Adebayo and James Johnson round out the group, and they’re the least appealing options of the bunch. Adebayo is seeing slightly more minutes than Whiteside at the moment, but he’s not nearly the same player on a per-minute basis. Johnson is dirt cheap across the industry and has averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month but isn’t seeing enough minutes to matter at the moment.

On the wing, Derrick Jones Jr. could be an interesting tournament flyer. He recently replaced Wayne Ellington in the rotation and has averaged a stout 1.11 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for just 2-4% ownership on today’s slate and has averaged 28.55 DraftKings points per game over his past five contests.

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) — 221.0 total

Mavericks (108.75 implied points)

The second game of the night doesn’t feature the same star power as the first, but figures to be the better game from a fantasy perspective. Both of these teams are in the top half of the league in terms of pace, and the resulting total is roughly 10 points higher.

The Mavs are also dealing with a laundry-list of injuries at the moment. Dennis Smith Jr. has already been ruled out and is expected to miss at least the next three games with a wrist injury. DeAndre Jordan was unable to go through shootaround with an illness and is officially listed as questionable. Maxi Kleber and Salah Mejri are also questionable after missing shootaround, which could leave the Mavs extremely thin in the frontcourt.

All of their injuries make Dwight Powell an exciting option. He has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season and is priced near the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He would become close to a must play if Jordan, Kleber, and Mejri are all ruled out.

Luka Doncic has been priced up to a season-high across the industry but has been worth every penny with Smith Jr. out of the lineup. He’s served as the primary facilitator in that situation, increasing his assist rate by +7.9% in eight games without DSJ.

As a result, he’s averaged 37.38 DraftKings points per game in those contests, and he’s scored at least 49.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. He’s an elite target on FanDuel, where he leads all players with 11 Pro Trends and owns a Bargain Rating of 86%.

Harrison Barnes exploded for 41.5 DraftKings points in his last game, but seems like a prime candidate for some regression. He shot 10-of-16 from the field in that contest, which makes him a strong fade target today.

J.J. Barea likely won’t see more than 20 minutes in today’s contest, but he can do a lot of damage when he’s on the court. He’s averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him an ideal GPP play at likely low ownership.

If Jordan is able to suit up, he looks like one of the strongest plays of the day on FanDuel. He owns an elite matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.84, and his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.

Rounding out the rotation is Wesley Matthews. He isn’t a particularly appealing fantasy player — he doesn’t provide much value if his shot isn’t falling — but he is projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. On a two game slate, that’s enough to warrant consideration.

Clippers (112.25 implied points)

The Clippers own the highest implied team total of the day, but they haven’t really been the same team since losing Lou Williams. They’ve averaged just 105.9 points per 100 possessions over their past four games — which is a noticeable dip when compared to their season average — and they’ve been outscored by more than 16 points per 100 possessions. Those games have come against some tough defenses, but its fair to wonder if this team doesn’t possess the same ceiling if Williams is ruled out again (currently questionable).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off his best scoring game as a pro. He tallied 24 points in approximately 38 minutes vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, and the high minute total gives him an optimistic outlook on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.11 vs. the Mavs.

Danilo Gallinari has seen the largest boost in value with Williams off the floor this season. He’s averaged 38.37 DraftKings points per 36 minutes, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +5.1. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two contests and has played at least 33.5 minutes in each of his past three competitive games.

It looks like a nice time to buy low on Montrezl Harrell. He’s struggled mightily over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -6.53 on DraftKings, but he has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games. His salary has also decreased by $1,100 over the past month, and his current $5,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Tobias Harris is one of the more under appreciated players in basketball. That said, he’s coming off 55.7 FanDuel points in his most recent game, which has caused his salary to jump by a significant margin for today’s contest. He would still warrant some consideration if Williams is out of the lineup, but he’s tough to consider a value at his current salary.

Avery Bradley has been playing a ton of minutes for the Clippers recently, but there has been some speculation that Patrick Beverley will replace him in the starting lineup. Bradley has been one of the worst fantasy players in the league this season, averaging 0.49 FanDuel points per minute, so Beverley is the superior option of the two.

Finally, Williams would make for a really interesting tournament option if he’s active. He doesn’t play many minutes to begin with and could be limited in his first game back from injury. That said, he leads the team with a usage rate of 31.0%, so he can do a lot of damage in a short period of time. He torched the Mavs for 33.6 FanDuel points in their first meeting this season.

Good luck!

News Updates

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Pictured Above: Luka Doncic (77)
Photo Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports